225 replies to this topic

[joshchang]

Guidance is good, demand forecast is solid as well. I am little disappointed at GM performance and keep pushing back of project schedule though. I am confused on the CB accounting here as well. And They should have done better on forex now. Balance sheet improved a lot if you look at working capital perspective.

[eysteinh]

Thanks joshchang for balanced view as always. Your calm is admirable. (I cant hit like as I used up all my likes for today heh.) 

[joshchang]

Thanks joshchang for balanced view as always. Your calm is admirable. (I cant hit like as I used up all my likes for today heh.) 

I am kind of upset at the stock performance as well but we know fundamental hasn't changed and we got to have patience to get rewarded. Also tells us not to use pure options (hedge is OK) in highly volatile stocks like solars for long term investors since price could be manipulated by day traders and momentum traders not fundamentals.

[spiritcraft]

As they said on the call, we are just at the very beginning of global PV adoption and this market will be growing and expanding seriously in the years to come.  The4 bad is all done and I am looking forward to the future.  It would have been an excellent move to sell on March 5th and buy today but that is fantasy.  Reality is the future and CSIQ has great viability that no other CN PV company has had in the past.  The EPC wave, especially globally with a North American presence is very important to me anyway.   $23 sucks, $45 was better but patience will pay great dividends IMO.

[sc_solar]

So low end guidance is around 70c/share for Q2 on revs of $560M. With around $1.7B revenue project for Q3 and Q4 the future is looking good.

 

Getting slaughtered pre market though.

On a side note, it looks like Q4 will be monster for projects, and Q3 hopefully as well. Hoping there isnt alot of push out to further qrtrs as well.

 

Hey Griff/Odyd

 

Thanks in advance, I was wondering about how you came to the .70c. +/- for Q2

Could you do a quick breakdown on that math....I would appreciate.

 

The shipment volume and higher margins would represent what of total?  .28c +/-

I see (2 possible projects COD listed) ie: Highlight (Val Caron) 14mw approx .35c +/- @ 25% margin?

and some of the Penn Energy representing 29.3MW but could be Q2 or Q3 according to table?

 

Sorry to bother you guys, but  I respect your calculations more than mine. Of course if Nano, Sunny, or Josh has a calculation that would be great.

 

Thanks very much

 

SC

[odyd]

Revenue*18%, 30% of gross profit as net assuming no forex charge. $106 rev, greater than Q4, no forex everythign same, about $35M, or EPS.70, now I expect CB to kick in some gains

[explo]

Why ? To avoid concentration risk ? Otherwise, at 50% of Book Value, it provides the best risk/reward ratio ?

Yes JASO is still cheapest and they are a low cost manufacturer of high quality goods as well as an EPC company now becoming a project developer with in-house EPC team (all this should enable dev of strong projects), but a bit more expensive JKS and TSL also show versatile skill and further has some clear leadership which JASO lack. For Trina it is the only big volume brand leader with strong BS and cost structure. For Jinko noone can match their production cost and they execute with exellence when expanding capacity and developing projects.

So yes JASO is still cheapest, but if diversification is desired then JKS and TSL looks like good complements.

[Makan]

Most disappointing about CSIQ is that they werent able to fill their late stage pipeline, it went to 1.2 GW vs 1.3 per Q4. In fact, looks like they expect it to go down at end of year as well, as they expect Japan going to 600 MW but want to build 400-500 MW this year. Apart from seasonal trend, this looks more like trouble getting late stage filled again internationally. Japan margins will go down as new FIT is only 32 yen.

[odyd]

This is great observation but we should understand if the scope of transition to late stage coems on during Q1. I would speculate that certain level of clarity is required for EPC operator like CSIQ, to put bids on the US and Japan projects. Certainly US market can be served from Canada and Japan should not be affected by hoopla of tariff, but transitioning from early stage to late stage should not be a big issue and I can expect them server the updates later on in a year.

[explo]

Any view on the 60% jump in inventory and no mention of LDK dispute. Anything from the CC?

[odyd]

invenotry was explaiend as need for module sells.

[explo]

invenotry was explaiend as need for module sells.

 

Thanks.

[JMK]

As they said on the call, we are just at the very beginning of global PV adoption and this market will be growing and expanding seriously in the years to come.  The4 bad is all done and I am looking forward to the future.  It would have been an excellent move to sell on March 5th and buy today but that is fantasy.  Reality is the future and CSIQ has great viability that no other CN PV company has had in the past.  The EPC wave, especially globally with a North American presence is very important to me anyway.   $23 sucks, $45 was better but patience will pay great dividends IMO.

I hope so but a reality corrects it in a severe way. Last 2 month action when many stocks including CSIQ lost 50% proves that the market ALWAYS know better (and in advance) than any sophisticated and informed investor. Actually the market knows all the details on the same level as top execs. of companies. Anyway where is the bottom? all depends on ahere is a general market nowe. If it is sitting on inflection point a bottom is all ahead and may be as low as nobody can imagine, say $12-13 for CSIQ and JKS, $7 area for TSL and JASO. If a general market starts to rise again we are probably pretty close to the very bottom now.   

[odyd]

Market does not know, otherwise you would drop 11% in one day. Did market know that JA will do 0.23 and and CSIQ 0.07?

Tell me what does market know about JKS release nad TSL one? I am curious.

[sunnysky]

Last 2 month action when many stocks including CSIQ lost 50% proves that the market ALWAYS know better (and in advance) than any sophisticated and informed investor. Actually the market knows all the details on the same level as top execs. of companies. Anyway where is the bottom? all depends on ahere is a general market nowe.

 

Market always knows better because it is the market.  The most important thing that no one can argue is the market defines what a stock is worth at any time point. If you what sell, you get the market price. If you want to buy, you pay the market price. It does not really matter what the value you assign to the stock no matter whether that is based on fundamentals, gut feelings, or anything else.

 

That being said, the market does not know what a stock is worth in the future, not in any way better than anyone else. Because by definition, if the market knows CSIQ will be trading at $18 one week from now guess what will happen? Yes, the answer is it will be changing hands at $18 right now.

 

That does not mean that the market does not tell an investor anything. It does, based on the well accepted theory, all the information about a stock known to man, including any potential development in the future, is solely reflected in the stock price it is currently trading. It's upon to each individual how to interpret that piece of information. Maybe you can argue when the stock did not go up upon stellar earnings like what happened upon Q4 ER for JKS and JASO, one should become actual cautious or could even have sold it out. But any major event could have changed the whole stock path. Such would have been the case if a compromised solution had been reached for the US tariff case. 

[JulyWebb]

I think it was Q2 and Q3 on JKS that the stock price when profits were reported did not go up that day but it did afterwards and another time on TSL when the first profit was reported it did not go up but did eventually afterwards. I think a lot has to do with market sentiment and the market maker.  May traditionally has not been known as a time when stocks advance. We went up beginning mid May last year though and dropped earlier this year than other high beta stocks. Hopefully we will shift soon.

[JMK]

Market does not know, otherwise you would drop 11% in one day. Did market know that JA will do 0.23 and and CSIQ 0.07?

Tell me what does market know about JKS release nad TSL one? I am curious.

Definitely the market does no know a future price but the market do know a trend and when a sizable downtrend started in this March the market already knew that Q1 will be really poor and Q2 guidance won't be too encouraging too. We also understood that Q1 won't be good due to Ch holiday, bad weather, seasonality, etc. but we hoped that Q2 guidance will be upbeat and since only future matters we expected a rally from April or whatever date. It did not happen and moreover a slide was extended up to now.  This is a major difference between the most smart investor and those in the exact know from the so-called market.

On a separate note: if the stock does not go up on good earnings/guidance her peers will go down on neutral one.   

[Bodhi]

Definitely the market does no know a future price but the market do know a trend and when a sizable downtrend started in this March the market already knew that Q1 will be really poor and Q2 guidance won't be too encouraging too. We also understood that Q1 won't be good due to Ch holiday, bad weather, seasonality, etc. but we hoped that Q2 guidance will be upbeat and since only future matters we expected a rally from April or whatever date. It did not happen and moreover a slide was extended up to now.  This is a major difference between the most smart investor and those in the exact know from the so-called market.

On a separate note: if the stock does not go up on good earnings/guidance her peers will go down on neutral one.   

Am i the only person that swapped some for CSIQ today?  RSI is sitting at a paltry 30.  Even by bad earnings standards, that is a buy signal to me.  I will trade out if we get a bounce on monday, the weekend is a long time to watch/observe what was reported today.

Note, we had a large volume down day on march 5 which started the downward trend, today COULD be the bottom or near with a large volume day again, biggest since Mar. 5, ideally you would like to see a large volume UP day, but either way large volume days are known to be pivot points.

JM2c

GLTA

[hellosolar]

You are not alone. I was loading bunch of CSIQ this afternoon. Originally I though it would not touch lower 22 today and my order just got filled.

[odyd]

but we hoped that Q2 guidance will be upbeat and since only future matters we expected a rally from April or whatever date. It did not happen and moreover a slide was extended up to now. This is a major difference between the most smart investor and those in the exact know from the so-called market.
On a separate note: if the stock does not go up on good earnings/guidance her peers will go down on neutral one

 

The point was that the market supposedly knows, in reality market does not have to know anything at all. As the mass of trading executions assigns value to a stock in real time, it is made on a perception what that value is. The question how well market recognizes this value is the only opportunity for the individual to beat superiority of market being “right” on price every time during a trading session.  Let’s not confuse things, however. The market is as much right as the bus at 100kg per hour hitting pedestrian.  It is simply physicality of size and willingness of participants to embrace it.  This market does not look into the future either. It only assesses the past. Due to most of the being trading programs, it has no human curiosity about the future, and imagination to comprehend it.   This is why individual more often gets left holding a bag unless he or she is willing to hold a bag to find a treasure in it.
I am not sure why Q2 is bad apparently, who said so? I am not surprised that CSIQ was going to have a bad quarter; I am not surprised that JA had a good one.  I am surprised that HSOL pooped the bed, and killed its recovery as they have no credibility now, but even that was more of my perception than a fact. I sold the stock not having enough conviction and was saved by the bell from buying when I had an emotional outburst “not to miss” gains on the day of cc.
I am glad that TSL was really resilient today; I am holding this one for the gain, which seems bizarre, in this environment.  One more comment. I noticed that few had sold CSIQ and bought JKS.  I am not qualified to offer investment advice or possess   credentials to do so, but JKS in my view is not going to have a good quarter. All the bad things happening to CSIQ are over; it is now a matter of understanding what EPS they can do. This will take until all companies report.