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TSL 2014Q1 ER

TSL

200 replies to this topic

#61 JMK

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 08:20 AM

It is also knowing that they have one of the most diversified customer base out there. Assuming EU comes back online in Q2, they should be able to increase shipments while maintaining margins. Many other names are looking for heavy China volume which is never going to result in EU like margins. I've never understood why shorts have singled out Trina. Then again, short interest hasn't exactly been needed to hold solars down either.

Shorts are almost always playing contrarian games. They aware that they are able to control a price with no respect to news, fundamentals, earnings, etc.  It is frustrating for shareholders to see how their value disappears and at a certain point they will get tired and sell - this is a core of deep pocket game. JASO is a nice example - good earnings, nice guidance, many upgrades with 50-100% premium and the stock is still in pre-earnings digits. Even worse situation with HSOL. Things like secondaries that still are wating to be issed is much more important in terms of SP appreciation than a whole scope of a great development. And I'm confident that even though HSOL demonstrates solid Q1, growing GM, good guidance, etc. the stock will be in a current range  until those "shorts against the box" get satisfied.


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#62 JulyWebb

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 08:31 AM

Shorts are almost always playing contrarian games. They aware that they are able to control a price with no respect to news, fundamentals, earnings, etc.  It is frustrating for shareholders to see how their value disappears and at a certain point they will get tired and sell - this is a core of deep pocket game. JASO is a nice example - good earnings, nice guidance, many upgrades with 50-100% premium and the stock is still in pre-earnings digits. Even worse situation with HSOL. Things like secondaries that still are wating to be issed is much more important in terms of SP appreciation than a whole scope of a great development. And I'm confident that even though HSOL demonstrates solid Q1, growing GM, good guidance, etc. the stock will be in a current range  until those "shorts against the box" get satisfied.

HSOL closed the secondary, I don't think they issue another one. HCC did a secondary raised money I think he will spend some of this in his Solar's plus he has Dream Pharma is up for sale. I was looking at JA's share price 6 months ago it was $2.00 higher than it is now without the 2 Quarters of Profit.


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#63 JMK

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Posted 12 May 2014 - 08:47 AM

HSOL closed the secondary, I don't think they issue another one.

Probably I missed news. As far as I remember HSOl announced secondarieas but did not finish them due to too low price.  


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#64 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:21 AM

Discuss result here. Yeap margin declaration seems to be the only weakness otherwise A plus


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#65 abcdefgjoho

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:28 AM

i agree with that view odyd. as discussed in the other thread the 100 next phase of the wuwei project can probably be sold in H2 to the same buyer of the initial phase. then margins should go up. we dont have a 50 MW plant sold in q2 so lower margin is probably not that surprising.

"Following the successful completion of our 50 MW solar project in 2013, this being the initial phase of our planned Wuwei solar project, we started construction of an additional 100 MW solar power plant in Wuwei. This marks phase two of the Wuwei project and is expected to connect to the grid in the second half of 2014."


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#66 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:29 AM

Balance sheet looks ok, paid the debt, accounts payable up by that amount (debt paid), inventories up and the receivables brought about $100M.


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#67 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:31 AM


"Following the successful completion of our 50 MW solar project in 2013, this being the initial phase of our planned Wuwei solar project, we started construction of an additional 100 MW solar power plant in Wuwei. This marks phase two of the Wuwei project and is expected to connect to the grid in the second half of 2014."

Yes, good point. Like I said in my article everyone will pay for poly, now is the matter who come the best. If they are selling plants they are doing over 20% and market knows it now.


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#68 Xeloris

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:40 AM

I don't understand all the technicals but once they do the upgrades, how much will this help margins from a module standpoint?


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#69 Xeloris

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:47 AM

Looks like TSL is being very aggressive as they stated in the past with project development.. Alot is already under construction or about to start


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#70 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:49 AM

Looks like TSL is being very aggressive as they stated in the past with project development.. Alot is already under construction or about to start

They are adding 16MW in Greece, it seems.


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#71 Xeloris

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:52 AM

i wouldn't be surprised they are able to do 700mw - 1gw in 2015.. If they can finish 500 this year.. great execution by management so far..   


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#72 abcdefgjoho

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:55 AM

yes, financed by CDB. i like non chinese projects - diversificaiton and potentially higher return.

"n the first quarter, the Company received a loan of €17.0 million from the China Development Bank to fund 16 MW of utility-scale solar power projects in Greece."


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#73 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:00 AM

I am reading more than poly into GM, they are adding a lot of China into their sales in Q2. It is ASP and not poly in my view. I think this is their strategy of talking in a way so it does not talk about ASP.  Poly would not take say 3% of margin down. If they do 800MW at 0.67 at 17% it is another Q with 0.37 per share. If they sell 100MW in Q3 it will add another $0.50 they can climb toward a dollar.


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#74 Xeloris

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:03 AM

they could potentially see 2.50 a share this year depending on revenue recognition


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#75 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:05 AM

They could do $2 plus if they sold 100MW.


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#76 explo

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:15 AM

Was someone worried about demand..? BIPV? Trina doesn't seem worried with more than 1 GW high end guided more than half way through Q2.


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#77 Scsnospam

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:43 AM

From cc - Confirming 14GW total demand for China...


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#78 Scsnospam

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:46 AM

Did she just say that the guidance is without projects?


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#79 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:47 AM

She said no project is planned to be sold in Q2 as per news release.


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#80 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:48 AM

Poly is not going up, it will go down, they say, it is in my expectations.


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