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TSL 2014Q1 ER

TSL

200 replies to this topic

#81 Scsnospam

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:49 AM

Unbelievable performance from Trina ! That just goosed the pre marke another 3 % !

Flyonthewall has a comment that the 37c is not comparable to 3c, just to clarify to any sleepy heads that it is in fact a 10x beat of consensus ;-)


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#82 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:49 AM

Mid teens by the way is between 13 and 19 so 16 to 17%


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#83 Scsnospam

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:56 AM

I like this new CFO - very comfortable with the analysts.


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#84 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:56 AM

I guess they are trying to sell UK projects in Q2, but she does not understand the question on FiT.  Am I confused Is Heiken a dummy? 150MW sent to own projects.Is he assuming they are sending them to not permitted projects?


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#85 Scsnospam

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:58 AM

I think the analysts are shocked as well. That nomura guy is the first to congratulate on an "awesome quarter".


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#86 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:02 AM

TSL does not want to talk about contribution on plant sale. I guess they think it is a competitive situation.


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#87 Scsnospam

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:04 AM

So mid teens for year as well?


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#88 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:07 AM

That is their comfortable guidance without plant sales (as Q2 is)


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#89 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:08 AM

It is concluded, analysts are dumb, how is Trina going to pay 180M of short term loans? WTF, the same it has since 2007, renew?!


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#90 Scsnospam

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:12 AM

Trina very confident on 14GW total. That is the most important takeaway for the other C7 here.

 

Odyd, what now? Hold through JKS ER and then decide on allocation vis JKS and CSIQ?


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#91 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:15 AM

I think it is clear they are guiding about 2 to 3% higher on mfg. then Canadian would so at 17% on those 800MW they can cut another 0.37 EPS in my view as they will be sending a lot of that home. Yet they are working on selling plants and they do not guide sales on them, which is a bonus. Those UK projects can bring $100M at 20% GM to the bottom line. so $90M could easily become some $114M in GM. This is pretty decent and can bring them over $0.50 mark possibility.


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#92 Makan

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:25 AM

Seems like they become the better CSIQ at 400 mln less market cap. Probably they should have same market cap, pro for CSIQ is higher pipeline already, pro for TSL is they are less vulnerable over their more integrated value chain and their better technology. However, due to their globally more cluttered projects I think TSL costs for EPC is somewhat higher.  


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#93 odyd

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:28 AM

They want to keep their sales confidential. Nothing wrong with it but a lot of people will be having hard time to estimate their gross revs and margins. I think their focus is clear EU, Japan and China. CSIQ has Canada instead of EU. TSL balance sheet management is brilliant.


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#94 sunnysky

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:33 AM

Congratulations TSL holders!

 

A great Q1 quarter as we've predicted immediately after their pre-announcement in early April. I'm sure smart investors had been buying the stock,  including clients of Bank of America Merril Lynch, taking advantage of the recent absurd sell-off. (thanks to Xeloris for making the research report available to the forum.)

 

Great great forward guidance. Now we have JASO, CSIQ, and TSL re-affirming 2014 targets, the future looks very bright. Lets hope JKS follow the suit.

 

I'm especially encouraged by the rapid progress TSL has made so far in project development.


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#95 pg6solar

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:36 AM


Lets hope JKS follow the suit.

 

Jinko already re-affirmed both 14Q1 and FY2014 in early May.


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#96 sunnysky

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:44 AM

Jinko already re-affirmed both 14Q1 and FY2014 in early May.

 

Sorry, I'm referring to a great Q1 quarter. So both EPS and margins. There has been some concern on a significant ASP drop and margin compression. I'm more optimistic. I hope I'm right.


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#97 pg6solar

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 06:59 AM

Sorry, I see.


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#98 sunnysky

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 07:09 AM

Just looked at the income statement a bit. They did have a much lower selling expense due to lower module shipment as I predicted. In fact they did $2M better despite shipping 18 MW more than what I estimated. Now it's only 5.44% of the net revenue - impressive and best among CN5.

 

And obviously these guys are so good at managing FX, I mean they have been making a small gain all along. I wish CSIQ is half as good.

 

They had a much higher tax expense than I envisioned - still clueless on how to estimate this. But I'm glad they keep making money, more and more of it  :)

 

Not much increase in terms of share count. I think we should all appreciate management for this. I won't mind they do a secondary to finance their growth when the stock hit high teens again.


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#99 explo

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 07:24 AM

Sunnysky, I model China freight lower than rest of APAC, which in turn is lower than ROW. I think the steep decline in selling expenses contradicts my model a bit unless there were other reasons than the mentioned warranty and freight (like higher bonus and commissions for sales staff in Q4). What's your view on this?


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#100 eysteinh

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 07:34 AM

Congratulations Trina holders :) Good result and 8 cents above my estimate. 


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