52 replies to this topic

[Scsnospam]

Xeloris, I'd like a copy as well, if you can. Much appreciated.

[sunnydaze]

PO of 22. What does PO mean? I'm used to seeing PT (price target)

[odyd]

this is the PDF, courtesy of Xeloris

I hope it is ok

Attached Files

•  TSL.pdf   1.72MB   45 downloads

[kknd1234]

 BOA is expect TSL to report  -0.10 for Q1, 

[odyd]

BOA is expect TSL to report -10 cent for Q1,

That is negative $0.10, I think they do better than that.

[Xeloris]

Agreed, i think they'll have positive earnings 18-20% GM.  higher teens on project.. means modules are on the higher end itself.. That project sale should almost guarantee a positive net earnings.  

[JulyWebb]

I think the main reason why GM's are higher than expected comes from TSL shipping more than likely in March to the US & the same with YGE. Lower shipments but higher GM. 
 

Quoted by Shyam Mehta 
 

But the 80c/W in our base case is based on what T1 Chinese players are quoting for H2 delivery right now, from conversations with multiple parties on both sides, and that is being influenced by the trade case. The firms that are quoting these prices are planning to ship in all-Chinese product and eat the existing cell tariff. With costs coming down to low 50s, it is feasible for them to make a decent profit while still paying a ~35% tariff.

 

Okay so half 2 sees shipments to US at .80 they were likely mid 70 range in March would be my guess.

[Xeloris]

Thanks July,  The tarriff situation is always has an * by it.. no-one knows the deal with it.

 

 

Looking at the BoaMerrill report they keep project assets at 73 mil through 2015 on balance sheet.. It appears they are only calculating module sales here.. am i reading this wrong?

[JulyWebb]

I haven't thoroughly studied what BoaMerill has to say.  Read the Comments posted by Shyam Mehta beneath the article. http://www.greentech...percent-in-2014

 

I came to this most likely conclusion with what explo said too 

 

I'm a bit suspicious about the whole EU volume being down reason when at the same time saying ASP and margins are up. 

 

 

[sunnysky]

That is negative $0.10, I think they do better than that.

 

So far, Explo has positive 15 cents and I have it at 25 cents. In fact, I think 25 cents is quite doable if the selling expense indeed came down a lot and there were no negative surprises such as large FX loss or bad debt provisioning. I hope they will announce earnings early this time. In the past, they have been publishing the ER date with earnings guidance updates. But maybe mid May is too much to ask.

[JulyWebb]

Maybe on this tariff deal we should also judge it in the same way CN Solars handled the EU tariffs if most remember it did not hurt and they bypassed also by shipments to Croatia and by higher pricing. In this circumstance they either bypass with cells from Malaysia as what SOL said they had outlets to outsource where they could bypass the tariffs or a higher price because the demand is there. Business is business and you find a way. In Texas we say Bidness is Business. 

[odyd]

I think what they did .15 or so is also my expectation.

[Xeloris]

PO of 22. What does PO mean? I'm used to seeing PT (price target)

 

"Price Objective" on the side of report same as target basically

[spiritcraft]

So...  It looks like they are seeing $0.71 this year, $1.04 in 2015 and $1.56 in 2016.  You can do the math on PE ratios.  Interesting.

 

The world is just changing and some (analysts, the public, investors, would be investors etc.) are starting to see what PV will become in the next couple years.

[joshchang]

So they are giving TSL 20 forward PE using 2015 estimate? That's pretty generous. 

 

BTW, TSL looks like a good buy here but the margin expansion would likely slow down due to Q1 improvement is more contributed to lower mix of China's shipment (which would result a lower mixed ASP when more China shipment comes back in H2) and ASP went down lower at the end of Q1 in China.

[Bodhi]

I'll take the flip side of the coin here and say TSL isn't looking like such a great buy at the current price... EPS counts. It counts a lot.  If TSL can put together a .71c EPS this year, they're trading at a foward PE of 15.  While JKS, let's say conservatively can get a $3.50 EPS, that puts them at 7.1 PE.  Even if TSL gets that number up to $1, i just don't see the value compared to others... Jm2c

[Makan]

What i found disappointing in TSLs 20-F was their low project pipeline of 448 MW (also no decription at what stages). In China only about 350 MW, but now they expect to build 400-500 MW in 2014. Can projects be started so quickly in a matter of months in China, even though they were not shown in pipeline on the 31 Dec? We can see from CSIQ, for them it takes ages for projects to go through permitting, engineering and you know it. Therefore I have still doubt on this project forecast. I am really only interested in project business for solar, I see pure module business as a lously business for years to come in terms of profit generation ability and only suitable to provide contribution for operating costs (at best) and as door opener in newer markets for projects. So in that advanced stage of the cycle I am not interested investing in pure module businesses. JMHO

[odyd]

Makan, Bodhi, this is why TSL looks promising. Bodhi, the way you seem look at the stock, things had to happen to pay for it. I look at it, before things happen to pay for it. Meaning if TSL puts out 500MW of solar plants for sale and keeps 100MW plus in EU, how quickly will they get to level of FiT JKS has?
TSL is the only business, which did not get to so equity. They have a chance to have the most efficient product out of Chinese today, and if you knew CEDR you would know few things about Japan and ASP.
Josh, is right lower penetration for the Chinese market means higher ASP, but how is JKS going to fair with this clue? They are shipping to own plants as well.
19% GM is not as good as 24%, but now you are talking scale, and scale is on TSL’s side.

[sunnysky]

I moved some CSIQ to TSL. TSL has made many improvements lately and the bad news is out. Q1 will actually bring a positive surprise in earnings. You got to grab the opportunity when you see one.

[Bodhi]

Makan, Bodhi, this is why TSL looks promising. Bodhi, the way you seem look at the stock, things had to happen to pay for it. I look at it, before things happen to pay for it. Meaning if TSL puts out 500MW of solar plants for sale and keeps 100MW plus in EU, how quickly will they get to level of FiT JKS has?
TSL is the only business, which did not get to so equity. They have a chance to have the most efficient product out of Chinese today, and if you knew CEDR you would know few things about Japan and ASP.
Josh, is right lower penetration for the Chinese market means higher ASP, but how is JKS going to fair with this clue? They are shipping to own plants as well.
19% GM is not as good as 24%, but now you are talking scale, and scale is on TSL’s side.

I understand that getting ahead of the market is how you make money... clearly evidenced by the last year.  But IMO the strongest will get stronger.  I don't know capacity numbers off hand, but if I recall, JKS announced in Q4 they expect to have btw. 3-3.5GW capacity by the end of the year.  That definitely puts them on par with TSL as far as scale goes.  And when that 5% diff. in margin is the difference between breaking even and making money, i just don't see the value... given, i'm not in on conversations in the premium thread, but from the macro view, that's my opinion.