412 replies to this topic

[Norse]

Yingli Green Energy to Supply 54 MW of Solar Modules for Seven Projects in the United Kingdom

http://ir.yinglisola...3035&highlight=

[sunnysky]

Thanks Norse. A great win for YGE and it should help toward a profitable Q1.

[Norse]

Yup. However the yuan is dropping today and some people are getting bearish:

http://www.cnbc.com/...market dabblers

[odyd]

IHS on EPC top 10

http://solarpvinvest...zed-integrators

[odyd]

Interesting that Canadian is not even on the list, this is how much potential is still there being unrecognized.

[eysteinh]

Actually some have to start building or buy land at march while the ones having either land or building have to finish the other part by august. I have already linked to a good article on the subject:
 

http://www.renewable...ential-projects

 

METI announced that it will disqualify uncommitted projects from the FIT program.  For example, the projects that are categorized as “neither site decided nor system purchased” will be delisted if they fail to show proof of valid millstones by this March and the projects categories as “either side decided or system purchased” will be disqualified unless they commit both site selection and system purchase by the end of this August.

 

My comment was back then and is now that this should cause some spike in demand both for march and august. We saw this now in Q1 for UK where FIT's where going lower then causing a huge rush to finish projects. Basically a trend for a while now has been for developers to stall making systems until the very last minute in hopes of lower overall cost to maximize profits. The good news is that for 2014 there is a lot of pressure to start installing or loose the best profit margins. So that is why I have high hopes for a good demand in 2014. For example this meti news will cause quite the pressure in that market to start building or loose the best FiT rates and all the time and money spent in application process. And if the demand is high then module asp in world could increase, causing other across the world to start building now instead of later in fears of lower profit margins. Basically demand could really take off in this year.  (Not saying it is currently, just that this in given scenario is plausible.) 

[spiritcraft]

japan:

592 MW solar built in nov 2013.

 

20 GW solar pipeline now with japan FIT acceptance.

 

50% of larger plants in that pipeline are lacking ground rights or technical details. they have to deliver this until 31st august or will be removed from approval list

http://www.solarserv...ember-2013.html

Will those that drop out leave a chance for someone else to obtain that FIT rate?

[spiritcraft]

IHS on EPC top 10

http://solarpvinvest...zed-integrators

 

The global PV pipeline tracked by IHS adds up to 114 GW in nearly 10,000 projects in various stages from under construction to early- phase planning. Half of this capacity is located in the U.S. and China. Of the global pipeline, 10 GW is under construction, while another 10 GW has secured power purchase agreements (PPA) or other contracts.

[eysteinh]

They will drop out (disqualified for that FIT) , they will have to apply at the lower FiT rate.  Basically the difference is 42 yuan vs 37,8 yuan. (10% drop)  So we have around 8 gw that is pressure to install by march / august. I think 80% or more will install so I expect 6 GW or more just in old projects in Japan in these two quarters. (So overall should be even more.) What is interesting is that 2014 has a lot of these "pull" Moments (UK,Japan, US) so should spur demand quite high for this year.

[pgo]

WSJ covers Beijing choke.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com...on%3Fmod%3De2fb

[spiritcraft]

300MW project in Utah seemingly in the works

 

http://renews.biz/61...ets-permit-nod/

[sunjacket]

Chinese citizen sues government over pollution:

 

http://www.telegraph...-over-smog.html

[spiritcraft]

Chinese citizen sues government over pollution:

 

http://www.telegraph...-over-smog.html

 

I am surprised that took so long.  This goes for any polluter nation.  Inequality has always been the trigger for the over throw of the ruling class but again, the world has never faced not being able to breathe or jave clean water to drink.  I would hope that leaders at least have a fear of that in the backs of their minds.  I would imagine self preservation will be a big driving force behind a drive for more and more solar etc. as the populace will take being poisoned for only so long.  We see how fast an uprising can boil up.

 

Want to stay in power? 100GW per year may be the price one day soon.

[sunnysky]

Chinese Solar Growth to Underpin Record Global Expansion in 2014

http://www.bloomberg...n-in-2014.html?

 

Solar developers around the world will install record capacity this year as a thriving Chinese market drives growth, a Bloomberg survey showed as manufacturers in the $102 billion industry began to return to profit.

 

About 44.5 gigawatts will be added globally, a 20.9 percent increase on last year’s new installations, according to the average estimate of nine analysts and companies. That’s equal to the output of about 10 atomic reactors. Last year new capacity rose by 20.3 percent, after a 4.4 percent gain in 2012.

 

A balanced market in which production matches demand is emerging, according to IHS and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. As well as IHS and BNEF, the solar survey included estimates from Deutsche Bank AG, Citigroup Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc, Yingli, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Solarbuzz LLC and Wacker Chemie AG.

 

[sunnysky]

Some other notable comments are highlighted below:

 

Japan may install record capacity of about 10.5 gigawatts this year, while the U.S. will build as much as 5.3 gigawatts, BNEF estimates show. The companies that survived the slowdown have emerged stronger and better prepared, Chase said.

As the industry oversupply shrinks, large manufacturers of polysilicon, a raw material used in solar equipment, and panel makers active in Asia should gain the most, IHS’s Sharma said. “We are not expecting bottlenecks, but the supply-demand gap is closing.”

[CrouchingTiger]

Small solar companies grew together quickly in a solarFunCube in the Bay Area according to NY Times. I think as the trend continues, technical costs associated with installation and financing would decline rapidly, reducing the total costs and making it comparable to other parts of the world. That leaves legal costs in terms of legislation and regulation as the last bottleneck for fast expansion of solar energy in the U.S.

 

http://www.nytimes.c...ntemail0=y&_r=0

[Norse]

Canadian Solar Receives C$ 52 Million Non-Recourse Construction Loan from Natixis

http://investors.can...&d=1&id=1903662

[Norse]

Sunedison up 7% as sell-side weights in after Capital Markets Day
08:35 AM ET · SUNE

The company is on a path to generate its entire market cap in value over the next three years, says Credit Suisse, lifting its PT to a (by far) Street high $34 from $17.
Also positive is BAML which sees the next two catalysts being 1) a Q2 semiconductor IPO 2) a YieldCo offering mid-late 2014.
"Overall, the meeting confirmed our belief that Sunedison's (SUNE) unique structure of both selling and retaining projects will ultimately create more value than either approach alone," says Needham's Edwin Mok, boosting his PT to $20 from $18.

Wow, CS loves Sune.

[odyd]

Mok is embracing holding to plants model like JKS, but has not much heart for JKS or China, giving a $6B evaluation to SUNE. This the example of America waking up to solar, but staying away from Chinese names (still) on a large scale engagement. I think we have another potential factor to play a role, foreign investment in China. REC is a good example, but think banks, big ones, connecting with top Chinese solar companies to build solar infrastructure in China. 

This will be massive when it happens.