53 replies to this topic

[odyd]

Trying to make an attachment for excel file.
Two companies reported Solartech 41% drop in revnue in Q3 versus Q2. Danen 39%
Added DelSolar
Added Gintech and NSP
It looks like revenues are down for Q3 in range of 28 to 40%.

[odyd]

article from SPVI on PVTaiwan
http://solarpvinvest...-future-at-best-

[odyd]

The excel file contains the figures for last month and the quarter. Average 25% drop in revenue from Q2.
This will be the outcome for the Chinese companies in this Q.

[odyd]

Seem up, 23% for Solartech

[odyd]

November results show 14% average improvement over the October. The Q4 2 month revenues show however 30% reduction versus 2 month contribution over same layout of Q3. So either December is extremely strong or Taiwan has lost again its edge over Chinese. That loss of edge would be in case of cells being sold for the US market. In case of India investigation against Taiwan is going to basically stop buying form the country. Some movement on module front to bring the capacity in Taiwan, but nowhere competitive with tier 1s of China.

[odyd]

Just got the e-mail from Gintech, sales for December 10% below November sales. Q4 looks like 27% below Q3. This is not good for Chinese Q4. They are normally trending in the same direction where Taiwan gets more losses. Solartech 56% below November. Q4 24% below Q3. NSP -0.3% mom, -17% Q4 over Q3. Year over year NSP 18% improvement. Wafer maker Danen Q4 40% below Q3.
DelSolar partner of NSP in the merger, -31% Q4 over Q3. E-Ton -9%, 124% increase YoY.

[odyd]

Hi Klothilde,
Taiwan has a good relationship with Japanese manufacturers . They can absolutely benefit from that. However I am confused with their poor results as Japan is skyrocketing. The only explanation I have contains two causes. One would be Chinese are moving on the turf, which they do, acknowledged by the module shipment data. Second is price protection. Interestingly Gintech characterized the situation as lack of capacity and employees as they have plenty of orders. I am not sure if I buy this as the whole industry was in the red, but I fully see this to be a price control in Taiwan, as they simply agree not to sell at certain levels. If the bit about orders coming in and capacity being down is real, they have now exposure to orders in Janaury, Digitimes can be talking about this. But they always talk big about Taiwan, so I would be cautious. Since we are on topic of Taiwan, I got info that there are plans in China to import poly from Taiwan. There is an expectation that poly will go up in price at least temporary. Instead of buying poly, companies will be also buying wafers from Taiwan. So Taiwan is becoming in the sphere of interest again, the same way their cells got into it when the US was declaring tariffs. Imho, I think that relationship may not be lasting. I expect large Chinese companies to set up shops globally, Taiwan is simply to expensive and too far for shipping costs, to be the choice.

[odyd]

Hi, results for Q4 are here
http://solarpvinvest...-and-sales-2012

[Uncle Chang]

Motech December sales Up 21.74% from last year (in combined revenue, including Subsidiaries in China?) to NT$1,133m vs NT$930m last December.

http://www.cnyes.com...ncome2/6244.htm

"Better" than last year but still weak...

These Taiwanese companies are really betting on the Chinese Anti-dumping, Anti-subsidy "retaliation". Nobody wants to sell cheap now, tolling does not bring in as much real revenue, many rush orders did not help much either, the Japanese orders only went to few companies. It's a real conundrum, but good that they didn't announce any year-end Furlough this year, I like that.

Taiwanese people don't like to work factory jobs, it will get too difficult to find workers if companies had bad reputation of laying people off or taking too many Furloughs. I think Taiwan should cut cells makers to half or 1/3, none of them are big enough to apply for foreign workers...

[odyd]

I am seeing few numbers from Taiwan at this point.
<p> <p>
NSP 4.1% higher than December, lower by 3.5 yoy but Q1 one was the best quarter of 2012.
<p> <p>
GET, wafer 9% up over Dec.Danen wafer 18%, Solartech 82%, but their sales in December were poor. 2013 January data lower than 2012's. January 2012 was the lowest month of sales in Q1, February was 16% higher.

[odyd]

Gintech 12.9% increase,
strong recovery of demand and shipment in the month, production was constrained by labor force. Selling prices up slightly.
strong demand from Japan ahead of potential feed-in tariffs changes in April/2013, as well as encouraging signs from China where customers apply Gintech`s products on domestic projects besides the US market. High utilization and prices to rise.

[odyd]

Some crazy numbers from Motech, Sino-American and Eversol. I hope those are not errors reported by Exchange. Will be looking for confirmation on Digitimes. I think that Sino maybe reflecting Covalent business but do not know.

[Pop2mollys]

These numbers make me think that over the next couple of weeks we might see some companies pre guiding higher numbers... Maybe....

[odyd]

http://solarpvinvest...se/taiwan-index
so is China for this matter, but not as much green
http://solarpvinvest...rse/china-index

[Pop2mollys]

http://solarpvinvest...se/taiwan-index
so is China for this matter, but not as much green
http://solarpvinvest...rse/china-index

Great tools on site I never utilized before. I'm sad though no US trading tomorrow... But we have tariff decision within next couple days which could make for some big moves...

[Paybak66]

Odyd, didnt you recently post about a rumor of a delay in the tariff decison possibly? Any more details?

[odyd]

No, I have nothing more, it was a rumor I read in one of the analysis, published on Feb 8th, 2013.

[odyd]

http://solarpvinvest...q4-2012-results
and the ranking on the list of largest solar companies (public)
http://solarpvinvest...by-revenue-2012

[odyd]

Solartech reported 10% in revenue over January 2013. The results ytd are 30% lower than revenue in Q1 2011.
Be mindful of ASP impacts, which probably make that comparison flat on shipments.