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Lepv123

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 7:04am

With the TSL comment concerning their profitability,

does this have any positive reflection on JKS?

pg6solar

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 7:42am

As expected, they all move as a pack.

Dan

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 9:07am

I think JKS would reach profitability before than TSL.
JKS is running at 100% utilization rate some months ago, with just 1.3GW module capacity, they now have more demand than they can deliver, so they are selecting who are selling to, placing their modules where they can earn more (maximizing ASP).
At the same time, they buy almost all their poly on the spot market, in relative large amounts (for spot market), so they probably can get the lowest prices of the spot price range (better than any contract, at least for the moment)..
And they are also very focused in getting down processing costs, they do not spend so much in R&D, but keep buying new equipment from top notch technology developers like GT Solar..
I don´t know if they can back to black in Q1 or Q2 or Q3, buy I think JKS can give a good surprise this wednesday.. just MHO

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "Dan" (Apr 8th 2013, 9:29am)


pg6solar

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 9:27am

JKS is running at 100% utilization rate some months ago, with just 1.3GW module capacity, they now have more demand than they can deliver, so they are selecting who are selling to, placing their modules where they can earn more (maximizing ASP).
Well based on latest export data (if correct), both 1.3GW capacity and selling into highest ASP markets are debatable.

Dan

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 9:36am

Well, that`s the CEO words:
"Chen said his New York Stock Exchange-listed company is now dealing with
more orders than it can handle, and production can't meet demand even
at full capacity. Jinko therefore can be selective when accepting
orders, and focus on those with higher profit margins from long-term
clients, he said."

http://www.ecns.cn/business/2013/03-12/53677.shtml

pg6solar

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 9:49am

Unfortunately, the latest export data is for February (not March) and per that data their annual capacity is greater than 1.3GW and they shipped nothing into the highest ASP market.

Klothilde

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 9:52am

PLEAASE These are trade secrets. Use the discussion board for buyers of the data. Whoever wants the inside scoop on customs shipment registration ahead of earnings please buy the data. It is worth thousands and it only costs 27 Canadians.

pg6solar

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 10:06am

I tried to be as general as possible without providing specifics.

solarcat

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 11:02am

It is best to be comparing Chinese solars while also looking at explo's post. There are clearly some who have and are doing better than others.

EXPLO and any other experts in SOL, do you (guys) believe that there

Lepv123

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Monday, April 8th 2013, 8:47pm

Pq6solar, do you believe that we will see JKS revisiting its recent

high of $10 again by end of year? What's your personal take on that? Thanks.

pg6solar

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Tuesday, April 9th 2013, 5:37am

Well Lepv123, if I did not believe that I would have sold out (it almost hit my average of a very large position). Having said that, if I have known then (past February) that stock would fall to $4 in just over one month, I would have sold out and then doubled position last week. Of course the rules of the game are if they run a stock up 500% in 6-7 months time frame - you must sell or "they" will punish you. So take it for what it is - no one here knows, everything is a guesstimate only.

JKS used to be an excellent "traders" stock with daily moves of 10% or more in both directions due to very low float with good EPS in 2010-11. I believe those days will be revisited once they're profitable again. Just have to wait till Wednesday and see if an expected headline miss will bring stock lower to buy more (to average down). Recent low of under $4 just missed my buy order. Why did they bring it up 20% yesterday? I have no idea. Judging from the passed, it could be an ER lick on a positive side (I'm pessimistic of that) as well as give "them" room (this is my guess) to bring it back down again tomorrow (at least initially). We shall soon see.

Lepv123

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Tuesday, April 9th 2013, 8:18am

Thanks pgs6olar. Even if it does retrace to $6 level,

the stock is still have been pounded 40% from the high while the other solars have retraced to around 30%. But then again, no other stock rose 400% above its share price either. One think I like about JKS a lot is that it's market cap is extremely low giving it a lot of room to run. Best of luck to us all!

pg6solar

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Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 7:08am

A bit confused by the CC. They expect to ship above nameplate, implying 100% utilization - good. Still the lowest producer (or at least among them) - good. Low opex and no plans to expand (they'll buy instead in China, if opportunity presents itself - do they have money for it?). Now, not so good. Very low cash position, still. Still low ASPs (relative to others). I did not get vibes of them being profitable (unlike from TSL and CSIQ calls) this year. However if they will, stock should fly due to low float.

Lepv123

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Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 7:35am

Thanks for your thoughts pg6solar. It says that for the full year 2013, total solar module shipments are expected to be between 1.2 GW and 1.5 GW, and total project development scale is expected to be between 200 MW and 300 MW. The Company expects to maintain in-house annual silicon wafer, solar cell and solar module production capacity at approximately 1,200 MW each by the end of 2013.

How is this compared to what is expected?

pg6solar

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Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 7:43am

All it means that they'll be 100% utilized, which is great (but so are TSL, CSIQ, SOL, YGE). They do have low opex. ASPs will determine their profitability. They are confident they will be a survivor (thanks God). As before, low float will move PPS fast and greatly. Direction will depending on ASPs(profits or still losses) .

Lepv123

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Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 8:11am

PPS-wise, where do you see JKS linger around for now in your opinion? If only they could increase the ASP we'll be golden!

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