Why SOL drops like a rock, because...

MichaelZhao

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 10:32am

Why SOL drops like a rock, because...

Li said the solar industry will not be in profit within 5 years.

李仙寿：首先兼并重组不会去产能，因为机器、生产线是真实存在的。无论如何重组，机器不会消失。重组反而会增加产能。重组一家公司，这家公司的债就变成股份了，资本投入加大了，你会向银行要更多钱，等于加大了对这个行业的固定投入。3-5年，假如市场没有50%的增长，要做到供需平衡是很难的。在中国，供大于求的局面会维持很长时间，去产能或扩大市场盈利是不现实的。我认为整个行业5年内不会有整体盈利。

http://www.ne21.com/news/show-39888.html

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uchsteve

greensolar

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 10:44am

So we need 50-60GW demand to be profitable at current selling prices....

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Klothilde

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 10:45am

Sorry Odyd but I have to.

OMG !!!

Stupid Motherrocker !!!

Yeah right. No profits in 5 years and China Development Bank will give you money every time you ask for it.

I haven't looked into SOL in-depth yet. But are you guys sure this guy is top notch ???

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MichaelZhao

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 10:51am

Quoted from "Klothilde"

Sorry Odyd but I have to.

OMG !!!

Stupid Motherrocker !!!

Yeah right. No profits in 5 years and China Development Bank will give you money every time you ask for it.

I haven't looked into SOL in-depth yet. But are you guys sure this guy is top notch ???

You know who is Li, right? the CEO of SOL. He is pretty good with prediction.

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Klothilde

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 10:54am

Well I think in this case my prediction is better than Li's: No industry can survive that long without profit. Who will invest to lose money? Ask any investor on this board. Anybody wants to lose money? who is it?

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MichaelZhao

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 10:56am

Quoted from "Klothilde"

No industry can survive that long without profit.

Exactly, that's why SOL dops like a rock.

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Pop2mollys

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 10:57am

Wow you guys are taking this out of context....

He said IF the industry doesn't grow 50% in 3-5 years there might be struggles... You realize he said "If" of course if the industry doesn't grow there will be issues

Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL

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uchsteve

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:00am

Either way ... the article didn't paint a very optimistic picture of the industry over the next few years.

Hopefully today's sell off signals bottom.

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luckygoose

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:01am

Dear Larryvand,

I wish you much succes by having an unconditional believe that the SOL company is the way to follow. Selling a lot of volume but making no money for the next 3 - 5 years.

I rather trust my money to a management that has the priority of selling modules in the highest margins segments and not selling against a loss. Next to this the pipeline is already filled with a lot of profit making volume.

Luckygoose

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Pop2mollys

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:02am

You don't think there will be 45Gw installed yearly by 2017... Lmfao....

Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL

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larryvand

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:15am

I don't speak or read Chinese so I only read the translation. But even based on the translation Li is saying that you need R&D and high efficiency products to make money. And that is what SOL has. The industry just needs to get rid of the "me too" low efficiency junk out there.

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Pop2mollys

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:16am

You also missed the quote where he said he is optimistic about rest of year, 30-50% revenue growth over 2012 and and strong support from banks....

Is 30-50% revenue growth YoY good?

Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL

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explo

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:17am

Thanks. Very interesting interview.

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Pop2mollys

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:26am

There will most likely be ATLEAST 70GW plus yearly by 2017

Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL

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Paybak66

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:29am

Quoted from "explo"

Thanks. Very interesting interview.

Explo, how strong is your faith in SOL currently? I value your insight. Thanks.

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explo

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:34am

Very strong.

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singular

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:38am

I am so devastated right now. A little over amonth ago, SOL was at $2.80 and things were looking great. After a 50% butchering, things now look bleek at best for the near term. Li is very accurate when he speaks about the industry. For him to say this is very sobering.

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Paybak66

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:38am

Glad to hear that. I have read your posts for many years now, and you seem to have a rational perspective on the sector. Thanks for your input and quick reply.

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Pop2mollys

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:42am

This Interview is so taken out of context its ridiculous. So break it down he is saying that if there is not an additional 3GW/ year added you won't see bottom line profits...

Well no chit Sherlock! That's like saying for any non profitable business that if their sector doesn't grow they won't see profit... I love how you guys are freaking out... Lmfao

Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL