SolarPVInvestor Forums

Is it possible to calculate system ASP for first solar?

We know the following:

Revenue of first solar in 2012 was = 3368,5 mil $ and q4 was 1075 (source: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/F…ation_FINAL.pdf)

Revenue recognization in q4 was for 679 MW, we know for 2012 this was ~ 2000 MW
(AC, but does not matter as production is also in AC)
"As of the end of the fourth quarter, we have recognized revenue for approximately 679MWAC equivalents, leaving 2.2GW of revenue remaining to be recognized. Please note that although we have provided this slide historically and do so today as a continuation of that process, we will cease to show it going forward because we believe that the following slides showing our expected revenue and shipments are a more robust representation of our future demand."
(Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1227281-…call-transcript)
(and 2gw from : (source: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/F…ation_FINAL.pdf) )

Balance of system cost was 0.73$/watt year on year average (14% decline in BoS during 2012) If we assume half of BoS reduction of 14% year on year then we end up at 0.78 average during the whole year.
On a cost per watt basis, full year module manufacturing costs, excluding our German manufacturing plant and un-utilization declined approximately 11% versus 2011 to $0.66. And our exit rate cost per watt for our best plant reached $0.64. On a year on year basis, we reduced average standard balance of system costs by approximately 14% to $0.73.
(source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1227281-…call-transcript)

We know production was 1875 MW and calculated revenue was for around 2 GW so we know third party modules consisted of 125 MW. (So our ASP estimated will be slighly skewed by these 3rd party modules that we do not know ASP of.)

Since they write "RECOGNIZED revenue of approximatly" we do not have to adjust for inventory account recivables etc since they give us the number for what they sold not just shipments.

The one thing we dont know is revenue, we only know net sales and this is an exluded number that does not have to be the same as revenue. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/netsales.asp

Sigh reminds me why I never tried to calculate first solar ASP :P

Ok my try:

ac watt = dc watt
( http://www.solarpaneltalk.com/showthread…ersion-equation )

it is not clear if 0.73 BOS includes non-standard site specific costs like project development.

"Our average solar system installed cost also fell from $1.59 in 2011 to a $1.39 in 2012, excluding $0.20 of development cost and based on the standard cost for a North American project larger than 100 megawatts excluding any site specific non-standard cost."
(Notice they are here talking about total system cost and they add +0.2 development costs to this)

and here:

source:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1227281-…call-transcript

"average standard balance of system costs by approximately 14% to $0.73. These improvements are a direct result of our continued investment in research and development efforts to improve module conversion efficiency as well as improve engineering, procurement, and construction techniques and a constant focus on operational excellence."

But ok lets say 0.93 BoS roghly and 0.68 for modules. = 1,61 system cost. ASP For system with 27,3% gros margin

formula is asp - system cost = 27,3% of revenue.

We know system costs. We dont know ASP and we dont know revenue only net sales. Let us assume net sales = revenue

ASP - 1,61 = (1075 / 671) * 0,273

ASP = 1,61 + 0,44

ASP = 2,05

(Remember system cost.)

Profit is 0,44 per watt gross. asp for module if you assume no profit from system is 0,68 + 0.44 = 1,12. (but obviously this is very unfair.)

Imho this just shows how important it has been to develop your own system revenue.

ok so if i understand you correctly 679 ac watt is 679/1.3 = 522 MW. I assume when they talk of cost per watt this is dc watt.

ASP - 1.61 = ( 1075 / 522 ) x 0.273

ASP = 1.61 + 0.56

ASP = 2.17

Thanks guys.

Ok so is this looking better then?

679 ac watt is 679*1.3 = 882,7 MW. I assume when they talk of cost per watt this is dc watt.

ASP - 1.61 = ( 1075 / 882,7 ) x 0.273

ASP = 1.61 +0,33

ASP = 1,94 (system ASP per watt)