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If you google the title you'll bypass the paywall.

Here is excerpt: "Mr De Gucht’s plan, which could result in duties approaching 60 per cent for some Chinese producers, still requires adoption by the full commission this week or next. "

Quoted from "explo"

What makes you think those 4 are the ones that would be part the speculative tariff free 5?

Those four say in their 2012 20-Fs that they have sourcing contracts in place with Wacker, and Odyd mentioned that he heard that 5 Tier 1s who source european poly will be exempted from tariffs. Put 1 and 1 together and arrive at 2, if you follow me.

Is there a remote chance that SOL is not sourcing from Wacker anymore?

I heard this but it does not mean it will happen. I think nobody knows anything for sure. I like this particular part of the article (thanks sony1)

"One possibility under EU law would be a so-called “price undertaking”, in which exporters petitioned the commission to agree a minimum price below which they would not sell their products in Europe. If companies believed duties were inevitable, such an outcome would at least allow them to pocket higher prices rather than paying penalties to the
commission."
Sounds kind of silly. Instead of selling to us for 0.60 sell to us for .80 so SolarWorld will break even or better yet at $1.00, it will make some money.
Then Koreans will say "yeah baby, let's sell it at 0.75 and get all the business in this dumb place"
I am not sure if the article writer or the commission members are members of Marxist-Leninist economic circle, but that idea must be coming from one of the meetings of that group.

From the company (http://info.renesola.com):

Perhaps most importantly, the impending potential European Union tariff on Chinese modules and cells is driving up the demand for cost-effective cells from Taiwan. If and when the tariff is determined to apply to Chinese cells like it does the US, Taiwanese cell supply may be outstripped by demand. The confluence of these factors are creating a perfect storm that is impacting the US module availability and pricing.

ReneSola is different. As one of the largest and lowest cost wafer and module manufacturers in the world, we have an excellent supply relationship with the top Taiwanese cell manufacturers. These clients of ours can drastically reduce their sales accounts’ receivable risk by working with ReneSola’s wafer supply and cell purchase tolling arrangement. We leverage this unique supply chain position in the market to work with the top few that provide us a unique competitive advantage.

Nice piece of PR. This talks about what we've been talking about: Taiwanese cell tolling costs going up and SOL supposedly in a priviledged position because of closer relationships there. Let's see if the priviledge is also reflected in COGS. Only time and quarterly numbers will tell.

COGS will be higher for Taiwanese than for Chinese cell tolling, but SOL should speculatively be getting one of the lowest tolling cost. Chinese multi cells are still closer to 35 than 40 cents and that's for buying, when tolling you relieve the cell maker of much inventory and AR risk, they just flip on the switch for simple cash flow.

Posted revenue for Solartech, 20% higher in April than month before, 23% lower than the same month in 2012, wafer flat 3% for Danen. 40% lower than 2012.
Taiwan Solar results

Klothilde,
I find very hard to believe that some do not see the obvious. Poly is not the single problem for the europeans. In fact, it is the European producers, among others, who are dumping poly into China and are keeping spot prices below cost. That is what the Chine investigation and the forthcoming poly tariffs are all about. Exempting any number of Chinese manufacturer that uses European poly does not even begin to address the problems of cheap wafers, cells and modules. The obvious that I'm talking about is anyone and everyone, and I'm not just talking Chinese who may or may not be in the "magical 5 list", but every other manufacturer in the world from every country that supplies Europe, including European companies, will take the Europeans to the WTO if just a "magical 5 list" was to exist (which IMO it does not as it creates much bigger problems and it solves absolutely nothing).

But beyond that, I fail to see how pacifying 1 europe poly producer (Walker) by creating this "magical 5 list), solve any of the dumping issues that the EU was called to investigate. If anything it makes things worse for them and the solar industry at large.

They might as well set up a worldwide solar cartel similar to the oil carter. It would be much better than the stupid trading barriers all of them are trying to erect, with asterisks next to them.

IMO, 2013 will be another disappointing year for Chinese solars IF the tariff garbage do not stop and do not stop now, from everyone. Cause the ramifications are going to be far wider than just Europe and China. IMO, if this continues, expect a bloody all out war with the biggest casualty the solar industry at large.

I think the European tariffs will not have such a big influence on Chinese 11. Why??
Because the Chinese 11 can set up wafer,cell or module manufacturing capacity in any country with low labour cost to be not hit with tariffs. Like Vietnam or others in Europe like Romania or Bulgaria where labour cost are the same or lower than in China. IMO

Look at CSUN already have plants in Turkey.!!

Does anyone have the percentage out of their total business (in Q4) each of the China 11 does in Europe? Which ones are more exposed? We can also look as Q1 results start coming in to see if that is changing.

@cfeng: It sounds fishy to me as well to discriminate among companies based on the amount of poly they source from Europe. This bias is a complete disconnect to the issue at heart which is dumping and subsidies. On the other hand you did have discriminate tariffs being applied in the US, and it is also known that the European have more leeway in incorporating a political component to their verdict if it benefits the EU, and this may be the loophole for the magical 5 list. This chit however is way too speculative for my taste, so I'll leave it at that. One way or the other we'll know in 4 weeks.

Quoted from "cfeng"

Does anyone have the percentage out of their total business (in Q4) each of the China 11 does in Europe? Which ones are more exposed? We can also look as Q1 results start coming in to see if that is changing.

Export data is a good proxy for the non-Chi business. However there is no such thing as a free lunch and you'll have to pay for it dearly.

@cfeng

Most of the talk is BS anyway, it is not about Wacker-Poly, it is about the pv module that must create some added value in Europe to be tariff free.

As I said before, the South of Europe has no interest at all in chinese module prices to rise 30% or 40%, you can be sure, the result will absolutly hurt nobody.

The same with tariffs for poly imports into China, this is a nonevent, too.

Oh my goodness, check this out:

"Germany has thrown all its weight behind the case," a source close to the case told Reuters. "Germany does not usually do so in trade defense measures, but this an important industry under attack."

Read more: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/…/#ixzz2SViPuPJZ

What if Chi retaliates with tariffs on BMWs and Mercedeses? Or on German sausage?

China basically already said when this was initiated last year that they would retaliate with everything they got. If EU does this they are nuking the foundation of Beijing's recent 5-year plan. They will be severely pissed.