SolarPVInvestor Forums

Quoted from "Klothilde"

My point is that I would not state a speculation as fact as you did.

Quoted from "Klothilde"

You stated: (SOL was) "out early to sign up the tariff free capacity on favorable terms before it got over-allocated and pricing skyrocket."

Quoted from "Klothilde"

which proved to be your speculation and not a fact. I would have included a "probably" or "possibly" to make it clear that it is an opinion, a speculation, and not a fact.

What is it that you find to be speculative here? That they have arrangements in place before tariff decision or that it is favorable (when negotiating terms) to have arrangements in place before tariff decision and to have strong long-term partnership relationship with these tolling partners?

Quoted from "Klothilde"

If the taiwan cell guys have to choose between tolling at cash cost (15 cts, accounting loss) for SOL or selling at a good profit in the spot market, which one will they choose? At all cost they will choose the latter option.

Well I'd say this applies to those who lack agreement and don't have a long-term relationship as one of their most important customers (because they have plenty own cell capacity and thus competing lines). It is one thing to not honor a supplier contract and take a one-off charge to restructure your supply-chain for long-term profitability. It is another thing to not honor a supply volume contract with one of your most important customers.

The article which started this discussion posted by Reuters must be the most manipulative junk one can commission.
It has been built on the premise of following statement
""De Gucht is ready to go ahead," said one person close to the decision-making. "The Commission has a very solid case."
This article was printed to ease the short scramble.

I am going to say here something which is not going to be popular. SOL does not have an advantage in outsourcing versus others. Anyone can buy outsourcing. Please stay real. Second every single one of the companies will be buying cells abroad.
I repeat everyone, there is no exclusivity here. Third the capacity rendered useless (fill the blanks depending on the outcome) is going to be sold in other parts of the world, pushing other sellers out.

Depending on what Europe penalizes with tariffs, SOL, with poly and wafer capacity, has a huge advantage against those with only cell capacity. But that hinges to Europe penalizing cells and modules only, which I think it is likely to happen. But companies with large cell capacity and high exposure to europe will be devastated in my opinion.

As they were devastated in the US? You check the data SOL is certainly not meaningful on the list.
Why poly and wafer is the advantage, because no tariffs, still they have to buy the cell? The dormant wafer capacity is not an issue for TSL or CSIQ, they will have enough business in elsewhere.
More so those who have deliveries can see who ships most to Europe. Trina is buying wafers in Europe for long time, they got label "EU made" on their modules.

Quoted from "explo"

What is it that you find to be speculative here? That they have arrangements in place before tariff decision or that it is favorable (when negotiating terms) to have arrangements in place before tariff decision and to have strong long-term partnership relationship with these tolling partners?

Oh my goodness, how long do you want to twist this? You mentioned clearly that SOL had signed up tariff free capacity on favorable terms. If you insist this is a fact, then prove it and show the terms. My guess is that you will have a hard time proving this, since as littleguy says, SOL never revealed the terms of the contracts (I don't know this as a fact but just quote littleguy here).

It would be way easier to admit that this is your opinion and not a fact. Are you able to admit a teeny little mistake? Odyd does it from time to time and imo it doesn't take away at all from his credibility. To the contrary, it shows he's real and is not trying to portray any particular image.

Quoted from "explo"

Quoted from "Klothilde"

If the taiwan cell guys have to choose between tolling at cash cost (15 cts, accounting loss) for SOL or selling at a good profit in the spot market, which one will they choose? At all cost they will choose the latter option.

Well I'd say this applies to those who lack agreement and don't have a long-term relationship as one of their most important customers (because they have plenty own cell capacity and thus competing lines). It is one thing to not honor a supplier contract and take a one-off charge to restructure your supply-chain for long-term profitability. It is another thing to not honor a supply volume contract with one of your most important customers.

Will they sell at loss to SOL when they could be making tons of profit and then party with SOL as SOL reaps all the profits from cheap outsourcing? I don't thiiink sooo.....

The U.S. didn't penalize modules. At least not yet as Solarworld is trying to reopen the U.S. case to include modules. They penalized only cells so modules can still be made in China with non-made in China cells. But Europe is looking to penalize both cells and modules. And that will be a huge blow to Chinese companies with big cell capacity and high exposure to europe. Which will also mean that for the next 5 years they will kill each other in other markets, with no tariffs. And even more countries are looking to put up barriers to Chinese modules, like India and South Africa. And I'm sure more countries will soon join in. The problems in the solar industry and Chinese solars in particular are far from over.

Quoted from "odyd12"

The article which started this discussion posted by Reuters must be the most manipulative junk one can commission.
It has been built on the premise of following statement
""De Gucht is ready to go ahead," said one person close to the decision-making. "The Commission has a very solid case."
This article was printed to ease the short scramble.

Quoted from "odyd12"

Absolutely right ODYD. Shorts are in certain trouble here especially those in TSL and SOL (sorry I can not disclose it). Shorts did not anticipate so fast positive development. I know for sure that shorts are behind this article. Moreover these undervalued Chi10 caused a lot of interest from deep pocket investors who are starting to pile on them.

Quoted from "Klothilde"

Will they sell at loss to SOL when they could be making tons of profit and then party with SOL as SOL reaps all the profits from cheap outsourcing? I don't thiiink sooo.....

You must be right as I don't think that's ever be done before in solar or any other industry... of wait, it has! Foxconn/Apple, Foxconn/HP, Foxconn/Dell, etc.. the point is that if you have unused capacity that you can put to use and recoup the underutilization penalty, I would think you would do it even with 2-3% margins as they amount to 7-8% when you factor in the underutilization penalty.

Klothilde, are you missing my statements that filings from companies are the factual part? Rest is speculative to different degrees and provides the subject for discussion (there's no discussion about what is said - what is filed is what is said). You may not be aware of arrangements SOL has talked about in its filings?

Hey guys, are you stating this was invented?

I thought Reuters was trustworthy but maybe I'm too naive.

ILOVEPV....what do you mean by "(sorry i can not disclose it")?

Quoted from "explo"

Klothilde, are you missing my statements that filings from companies are the factual part? Rest is speculative to different degrees and provides the subject for discussion (there's no discussion about what is said - what is filed is what is said). You may not be aware of arrangements SOL has talked about in its filings?

So much text just to say that it was your speculation and not fact? Why the effort?

Why so much effort to claim that discussions that have not been claimed as facts are not facts?

Here's my speculation: it is favorable to buy before rather than after confirmed shortage. yes, it is not a fact it is a speculation.

Here's my fact: sol said they have already signed foreign outsourcing arrangements to provide tariff free modules to EU. Yes, it is a fact that SOL said that they've done this in a filing. No I don't know for a fact that they did it (that's just reasonable speculation). I know they said they did it.

Is that clarifying what I view as speculative and as fact?

yes, very clearly, well done.

Thanks, I hope we are allowed to discuss now again without labling everything as speculative?

Quoted from "Klothilde"

Hey guys, are you stating this was invented?

I thought Reuters was trustworthy but maybe I'm too naive.

Someone close to SolarPVInvestor Forums said that 5 tier one Chinese companies will be excluded from tarrifs in the EU, due to purchase agreements on poly with European poly makers.

Quoted from "odyd12"

Someone close to SolarPVInvestor Forums said that 5 tier one Chinese companies will be excluded from tarrifs in the EU, due to purchase agreements on poly with European poly makers.

That's very interesting. I'm dying to hear the 5 names..?

ok let's put together the names, we can do it.

for a fact (Wacker customers):

- YGE
- JASO

who else?

From TSL 20-F:
"We purchase our polysilicon from our suppliers in the United States, Germany, South Korea and
China."

:D

If you import poly you get to export panel?

Time to buy Wacker?