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Quoted from "explo"

Ok, we've got a SuperJASO prediction.

LOL.

Subsequently reporting Q4, JA took 13.3M provision out dropping its loss in Q4 from $103M to $93M.

Taking out $45M as extraordinary items, it would bring that loss to $48M. The company had a 4% negative margin worth in this case $12M. Say margin is zero, it would bring that 12M back which is 36M loss. Under new share composition this is around 0.92 per share. That is roughly 30% better than street is measuring JASO today. Let me correct my prior statement, I would say 20% rise upon this result or any better is very real under SOL's performance today.

My estimates are 217M sales, 4.2%, GM $9.2M, loss of $25 -30M(opex moving accordingly will lower sales)

I hope people are factoring in the Japanese yen implosion during the quarter in their calculations. Which BTW it has continued in April and so far in May.

Certainly, this is a concern. However I am not familiar with nature of the contracts and their length, to speak volume on pricing impacts. Prices for solar are global, therefore currency fluctuations on long term orders would impact them but on short-ones not as much, as they would get adjusted. The yen depreciated against both yuan and dollar in area of 19%, at the same prices of cells gone up by 24%. Module prices have certainly dropped but Japan remained high ASP country. If you consider SOL's statements and ASP, you see that 10% was shared between Japan and Australia, where Australia dropped deliveries by some 58%. I did not hear anything in particular on Japan and currency, but I heard a lot about going and being in Japan.
JASO has an excellent foreign exchange program it uses foreign hedged contracts to protect itself. Their losses are minimal. Said that I am not sure if transaction is done in yen or yuan or a dollar. In many ways yuan has been accepted as trading currency in Asia. Regardless this is a risk and I know there is GDAP impact on all players. My point in another thread is to show increase of deliveries to high ASP countries vs. decrease for high ASP countries for SOL, and increase to European zone which is basically storing and not sales.

Quoted from "cfeng"

I hope people are factoring in the Japanese yen implosion during the quarter in their calculations.

TSL already reported a "foreign currency exchange loss" of ~$20 millon, this will hit JASO hard, too.

Outsmart, SOL stated it shipped around 10% to Australia and Japan in Q1, and their Forex loss was nil based on gain on derivatives net. How did they manage?

If you have an answer on SOL, I will address TSL.

managing currencies.

Best department in the Solar-Universe !

JASO's Q1 results will probably suck, but again, who cares, it is all about the outlook.

And the outlook could be quite good, Q2 gross profit could increase by 4-5 Cent per W

I cannot explain to you about TSL , because daft statements cannot buy intelligent ones.
SOL has sold hardly abroad, and sold in EURO and US if they ever did. Their managing is 1000% worse if you look at TSL foreign gains and derivative gains vs. SOLs. Yet that is not the reason.
What compels you to say JASO results will suck? you provided nothing factual, but you insulting fair amount investors who purchase stock on Friday. Of course we all care, including me, we own the stock.

I do not like this. If you continue to post ignorant single sentence statements like that upsetting people, I will remove you from here. I said to you before you have nothing to say, say nothing. I repeat this again. Respect people's choices and judge facts. You do not have enough acumen to describe future, do not abuse it with ignorance.

Foreign exchange is factor as I mentioned. One has to look at the performance of of companies which sell heavy to Japan to look for indication: SPWR and Motech. While we do not have clearly effects of the currency trading or foreign exchange with those companies on their income statements, GM which is isolated from those effects has improved for both. Both sell modules and clearly Motech sells cells. YEN depreciated against all currencies including TWD and RMB.
Effects will be different if payment terms are in USD, or RMB or YEN, amount of down payment and when payment is transferred and who pays for exchange fees. People read about companies in China affected by YEN, but they forget that solar markets operate on fix currency EURO and US. This is why prices went down in Japan in those to stabilize the market. Evidently the only group gained from it, yes hint : the Chinese. High margin and flexibility of selling everywhere else for less.

Those who bought data can see distribution to Japan by major companies so understand that first when you correlate impacts.

I am able to explain coherently here what happened with TSL, but if I am mistaken "aftermath" resident critic will molest this to death. I chose hint this to paid members.
In case of JASO the loss max outs around 6.5M on FX, this has no impact on GM portion of income statement. JASO does not use derivatives to hedge currencies, they had $488 (yes) hedge exiting the Q4. However consider my statements as an educated guess not a fact. On contrary, while prediction of future is over with SOL info, everyone else provides new piece of the puzzle.

Lets have some fun,
We will have the open name poll on JA Solar results:

Klothilde - $260m sales
odyd12 - $217m sales

If both of you are looking at the same solarzoom data, why the 20% difference?

Cfen,
I would ask you to investigate what is provided. Understand what type of data is available and how many packages are there. Understand operational, accounting and revenue recognition differences between what is shipment and what is delivery. Assume that Klothilde could buy just one piece of information. Your question implies there is a source of information which would imply precise amount of revenue for a public company, prior to official news release. That is very credulous approach to say the least for someone who pertains to being savvy in markets.
You do understand word "export"? There is very large piece of domestic shipments which are "unknown" and not covered by the data . Data provides information about "modules". JA sells cells as well. Lastly there is a difference of opinion. I hope by now you see why there would be a difference between two people looking at the same piece of information. Unfortunately, we are not looking at the same data.
Cheers.

I know all that, and of course there is a difference of opinion. In Q4 JASO posted $268mil sales on 500MW with 56% of that coming from China. What I was asking, if the export data is showing a boom for JASO that both of you can see, then the 20% difference of view between you and Klothilde must be that you think JASO domestic sales will be dramatically lower from Q4 even as exports rose, correct? If that is true, then that will have a positive impact on JASO's ASPs.

Quoted from "cfeng"

If both of you are looking at the same solarzoom data, why the 20% difference?

One logical answer is that 1 considers tolling and the other does not. One mght be using low to midragne while the other is using high end. There is also ratio issues with module to cells that can account for the variances. That is why the impact of expected vs actuals has had great deltas'

I will go with $247M revenue and a loss $0.20 a share. I will also go with negative gross margins.