Solar Modules
Deliveries in March were lower in comparison to February by some 70MW. In comparison to last year the monthly volume was flat, at about half of a percentage point lower, or 1,803MW versus 1,812MW. The whole quarter still became the largest-volume quarter to date at 5.9GW versus 4.8GW last year. The 22% increase is what the companies guided for the market growth. The impetus of the first two months of the quarter has certainly leveled off in March, meeting our expectations of the European and specifically UK volume falling off the demand grid.
For the full quarter Asia had become 57% of the total volume, followed by the EU at 17% and North America at 14%. The top three continents have shuffled the amount of MW among themselves, but the order from the fourth quarter remained the same. Last year, North America was in second place instead of the EU.
We suspect that the EU will lose its second place in the coming quarter, with South America playing a slightly more significant role; certainly, a different country distribution is expected moving forward, with the UK losing its dominant role in Europe. We suspect that more volume will be shipped to the US with new tariff levels.
Japan was the top destination in Q1 at 2.2GW, a record for a single-quarter delivery. We now expect a reduction of this volume in the coming quarters. The second country on the list of top 10 destinations was the US at only 11%. While the top 10 destinations took 15% more volume than Q1 2014, at 4.8GW in comparison to 4.2GW, over 1GW in the quarter went to other locations. This compares to 600MW shipped last year to secondary locations, a 66% increase.
India has taken the number four spot among top 10 destinations, while Honduras made the list for the second quarter in a row. Along with the UK and Holland, France was on the list with surprisingly significant volume.
Top companies delivering to Japan were Canadian Solar with 314MW, a record for one quarter, followed by Yingli at 292MW and Trina at 236MW.
Forty-seven percent of deliveries to the US from China came from Trina Solar, followed by JinkoSolar with 140MW. Yingli was in third place at 71MW. Canadian Solar delivered from China only 31MW, while JA Solar delivered less than half of a MW.
The UK received 462MW directly in Q1 and only 15MW in March. JinkoSolar delivered over 74MW to the UK, followed by JA Solar with 52MW and Canadian Solar with 32MW delivered.
Finally, India was dominated by Trina Solar with 101MW, followed by Canadian Solar with 71MW and Yingli with 25MW.
CN7 market penetration was 61% in Q1, or 3,594MW versus 2,616MW in Q1 2014. This is 37% growth year over year. The combined growth of other companies was only 4%. The CN4 grew 65% year over year. At 2,571MW, they own 44% of the module exports. Trina Solar owns 14% of the exported volume, followed by Canadian with 13%. Both companies reached the top of their quarterly deliveries, with Trina at 809MW and Canadian at 791MW. JinkoSolar also achieved its own best at 501MW.
Worth noting, neither Hanwha QCELLS nor ReneSola are participating in the growth, at least when it comes to delivering from China. ReneSola has lost 20% of the volume and Hanwha around 5% in comparison to last year. This may not necessarily be negative, as focus could potentially have shifted to domestic destinations for HQCL, having the QCELLS organization taking over the shipping to global destinations.
CN7 GADP (Global Average Declaration Price)
Looks like GADP prices have actually improved in some cases in March. It appears that GADP for Trina is only off by one cent, while the largest depreciation happened for JinkoSolar at 7 cents. Canadian reportedly already had a drop of 2 cents, and appeared to report $0.61 per watt for third-party sales, which is around 5 cents off from the global average declaration price. JA Solar seems to have a drop of 3 cents from the fourth-quarter GADP.
Trina Solar Limited (ADR)(NYSE:TSL) Q1 CEDR
Trina achieved the highest quarterly shipment in its own history and in the history of CEDR at 809MW. It appears that UK plants were sold, but will not be recognized in this quarter. We expect 100 to 200MW of extra volume being shipped according to the guidance, perhaps to China. Gross margin could be 1% lower than that reported in Q4.
Global Allocation:
Asia: 46.6%
North America: 40.33%
Europe: 8.67%
Australia: 2.9%
South America: 1.29%
Africa: 0.22%
To three destinations: USA: 252MW, Japan: 235MW, India: 102MW
JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) Q CEDR
Jinko has reached 501MW, for the first time ever. Guiding only 600MW, we expect potentially another 100MW added in China for a total of 700MW recognized as revenue. Jinko’s GADP has the most fluctuation among the CN4, around 7 cents. We suspect that GM may drop to 22.3% held up by gross margin from energy sales.
Global Allocation:
Asia: 34.6%
North America: 31.24%
Europe: 22.45%
Australia: 6.1%
South America: 5.16%
Africa: 0.45%
To three destinations: USA: 140MW, Japan 113MW, UK 75MW
Thank you
SPVInvestor Research - Robert Dydo, Jason Tsai
