Solar Modules
The final month of the year was one of the largest in 2014. Overall, Chinese module exports reached 1.9GW in December, a 56% increase in comparison to 1.2GW in December 2013. With this impressive contribution, the fourth quarter became the largest delivery period in history, at 5.315GW, beating the Q2 record of 5.2GW. Overall, year-over-year quarterly increase reached 43%. Full-year Chinese module exports reached over 20GW, an increase of 21.1% from 2013.
Coincidentally, during the same period, market performance of solar companies' stocks was the worst in the year, possibly creating a condition of surprise for the markets during the reporting period.
The largest country contribution for the quarter was Japan, 46% over the same quarter in 2013, and a slightly higher figure than Q3. Japan has not shown signs of a slowdown, despite the criticism and recent misperception. Our expectations for 51GW of overall solar capacity in Japan holds approximately 25 to 30GW demand yet to be supplied, which offer at least 3 years of delivery pace similar to 2014. For the year, Japan received 7.4GW of modules, slightly beating our forecast. Japan represented 37% of total exports in 2014. USA came in second with 3.5GW of volume, followed by direct deliveries to the UK at 1.2GW. Australia and India reached over 700MW each. The other 13 countries on the list of top 20 received 3.3GW of modules. Among those locations were Philippines, Chile, Taiwan and Pakistan, with Algeria and Honduras being completely new for 2014.
From the perspective of market share, US-listed companies had 63.85% of the exports in Q4, a lower figure than Q3 had, but still very strong if considering the 12% volume increase quarter over quarter.
For the year, CN7 (CN4 plus YGE, HSOL and SOL) had 56% of the market, while CN4 (TSL, CSIQ, JASO, JKS) had 36% of the market. The highest exporter for the year was Trina Solar, followed by Canadian Solar. Both companies had 11% market share of the exports.
Looking forward to 2015, top destinations are Japan, which could be eclipsed by the US. The third highest destination for the first quarter will be the UK, and possibly by the second half of the year, India. The forecast for 2015 foresees around 20% growth for exports, up to 24GW, with CN4 adding on around 2 to 3GW and 1GW to 2GW by the rest of the US-listed companies. More of the volume will be taken away by CN7 in 2015 from "others" category, moving market share closer to 60%.
CN7 GADP (Global Average Declaration Price)
The range of the drop, based on Q4 GADP results in comparison to Q3, is two cents on average. In combination with the flat pricing in China in Q4 versus Q3, we see possible gross margin pressure, which could be neutralized by a significant volume of shipments, improving gross profit figures despite lower margin.
Overall, we have high expectations for fourth quarter results, considering that all companies are expected to ship record volumes. Full utilization should help with cost reduction, in addition to efficiency increases from new equipment and material processing improvements.
Chinese Export Data Report (CEDR) is a monthly publication of data in an Excel format, with PDF commentary including:
• Weekly ASP for polysilicon, wafer, cell and module
• Module Average Declaration Price (GADP) by countries and & US-listed companies
• Module, cells and wafer deliveries by country and company (over 78 destinations)
• Watt efficiency averages for selected US-listed companies
• Imported polysilicon by volume price, source and buying Company/Group
• Taiwanese cell and module
