Solar Modules – General views
The first quarter of 2014 was the largest quarter to date for deliveries, at 4.8GW of modules sent. This is 12.2% growth year over year and 30% quarter over the quarter. In monthly comparison, March was 40% higher than February and 18% more than March of 2013.
The period is a blowout for individual destinations. Chinese companies have shipped the highest ever number of modules to Japan alone in Q1. This is 71% more than in Q4, and 169% more than in 2013. The second destination, USA, had 897MW in comparison to 712MW shipped in Q4 and 344MW shipped in Q1 of 2013. Holland and UK shared third place, with 283MW of deliveries in the quarter. Holland, being a hub for Germany, lost 73% of volume versus Q1 2013, but UK gained 86% over the same quarter last year.
Top-10 destinations had 11% more volume than Q1 2013 at 4.2GW compared to 3.8GW.
When it comes to breakdown of volume, the first quarter was shared at 57% by US-listed, 23% named corporations, and 19% no-name segment. US-listed lost 3% of the share versus 2013, due to the Suntech bankruptcy. CN7 took 2.615GW during Q1 2014; in 2013 the number was 2.292GW, and this is 14% growth year over year. Once more, the group was negatively impacted by loss of volume in global deliveries by YGE to the tune of 26% in comparison to Q1 2013. CN7 held 53% of the market in Q1 2013, and this number became 54% in 2014. In general terms, the global market does not show much of the consolidation in US-listed volume, but more so in fewer China Mainland tier one and two contenders taking on volume. 11 companies took 72% of volume in Q1 belonging to named corporations, while the same 11 companies took 69% in 2013. Chint, in particular, is producing more volumes quarterly, followed by ET Solar and BYD. Solargiga, absent from the 2013 results, is the number-four Chinese company mainly due to Japanese business, bringing 97MW of volume to this country in Q1. The business in Japan is so intense that over 400MW were shipped there by the "others," a surprising condition when considering the "tough" entry to the country.
Solar Cells – General views
214MW of cells were delivered in March, which saw a lift from 172MW in February. Total volume of cells shipped during Q1 by Chinese companies was 592MW. Top destinations during March were Korea, Canada and India. Top shippers during March were JA and Motech. JA sold a cell at $0.41 per watt, an increase of $0.01 from February.
Taiwanese companies shipped around 272MW of cells in February (data is a month behind) at the average price of $0.40 to China. Global Shipment was 591MW during the month. The expensive move in January affecting Malaysian prices continues into May. Now cells are reaching the level of $0.51 per watt on significant volume of 37MW. Japan's ASP has gone to $0.54 per watt on 63MW, a one-cent increase versus January. Volume and prices dropped for the US, during February at $0.40 per watt from $0.41 in January.
Solar Wafers – General views
During March, 831MW of wafers were delivered, with the largest destination, Taiwan, receiving 589MW. This compared to 639MW in February and 770MW in January. Total volume of wafers for the quarter was 2.24GW. The same top-three companies: GCL, Zhong Huan, and Longi, led exports in March. The same patterns applied to destinations during March as in February and January.
US-listed Chinese Solar Companies (CN7) –General views
For the aggressive market behavior, Q1 has been a combination of surprises, starting with the size of delivery volumes and highly potent advance by two companies to global leadership. CN7 delivered 2.6GW of modules in Q1, 37% more than Q4 2013 global delivery and 14% more year over year. Yingli Green has retreated from the global arena by 26% in the year-over-year comparison. The 48% increase in deliveries over Q4 did not support the company, and the shift to China was not enough to meet its guidance. This was the only disappointment among the group.
Our speculation came true about March being the highest month out of the quarter. ReneSola led the month-over-month increase, where Canadian was second and Jinko was third. When it came to quarter-over-quarter results, JA Solar set a new company record, a 70% increase in module deliveries in comparison to Q4. Others like ReneSola and Canadian saw 66% and 31% increases in month over month.
Q1 leaders were Trina Solar, Canadian Solar and Yingli Solar. Hanwha SolarOne delivered one of the better results in its history.
The largest destination for CN7 during March was Japan at 440MW or 44% of monthly volume, second was USA with 260MW or 26%. CN7 sent over 1GW of modules to Japan during Q1, with JA and Canadian leading. The surprising third place was Trina. During Q4, Trina delivered high double-digit % growth over Q4.
The US deliveries for the quarter were 610MW, with Canadian Solar leading, followed by Trina. Another surprise here was JKS having a 142% increase over Q4.
Polysilicon Imports
Looking at the price of the poly, we see two drops in the cost for March for YGE and TSL. CN7 imported 3,149MT in March in comparison to 2,082MT in February. In poly price comparison, March overall was 5% more expensive than in February, at $21.63 per kg versus $20.63. We believe that cost of poly will stabilize around $22 to $23 for the entire year. One of the highest volumes of imported poly belonged to ReneSola with 606MT. The company paid the most for its poly during March.
GADP Pricing CN7
In general quarterly GADP ratings, some companies still managed to beat Q4 averages. Those were: Yingli Solar, Trina Solar, Canadian , ReneSola, JA , and China Sunergy . Hanwha SolarOne remained flat to Q4.
SPVInvestor Research - Robert Dydo, Jason Tsai
CEDR Solar Exports information can be found here link
What is included:
- Country and volume
- currently 73 countries identified, specifically for US-listed companies
- 34 Chinese corporations included in the report.Taiwanese cell and module exports by destination, volume (pieces) and dollar value,
- MW Chinese customs declared prices by company and destination for module, cell and wafer
- Polysilicon volume imports by a company and sourcing country
- Mainland China's quotation price
- Color charts and price graphs
For the full sample of the CEDR please contact This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
- *CN7 includes: Yingli Green Energy Hold. Co. Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE: YGE), Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ), Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL), JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR)(NASDAQ: JASO) and ReneSola Ltd. (ADR)(NYSE: SOL), JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.(NYSE:JKS), Hanwha Solarone Co Ltd (NASDAQ:HSOL)
