Starting with the January edition, we are delighted to include two data formats: “Imported Polysilicon by Company and Destination” for selected organizations and “Taiwanese Cell and Module Exports.” The additional value of the poly import report comes from the ability to observe average polysilicon prices from imported sources. This is an excellent source of information in mapping processing costs.
Modules – General views
Global module deliveries during November 2013 amounted to a total of 1.2GW versus 1.24GW, or 2.2% less than October 2013. In comparison to a year over year, overall deliveries in this period were 37% higher than the comparable period during 2012.
In continental distribution, in a month-to-month comparison, we saw a shift from the European markets, reduced by some 23% in comparison to October. North America increased by 1% and Asia by 4%. Australia saw the largest percentile growth at 12%.
South America and South Africa both declined, by 17% and 18% respectively. In our view, high demand in China has been taking a portion of the shipments away from the global theater. Domestic markets have witnessed a large number of agreements, and in some cases, US-listed companies are shipping to their own projects at the cost of global supply.
In the perspective of the full year, the European market declined by 70%, while North America grew by 119% and Asia increased by 300%. We have no significant records for Africa or South America during 2012, but they truly represent the emergence of new markets during 2013.
The top 10 country list remains consistent with October data. Japan, USA and Holland are the three leading destinations, where Japan was 13% higher on the MoM comparison and 324% on the YoY view. The US was 1.3% higher in comparison to October and 114% over the November 2012 data. While higher than October, Holland is around 60% lower than the same time in 2012.
Double-digit percentile growth at 12% was observed in Australia. For markets with more than 5MW shipments in a month-to-month comparison, Hong Kong grew by 40%, South Korea saw deliveries increase by 62%. In a year-to-year comparison, we have the UK with a 490% increase, Japan at 324% and Thailand at 264%.
Despite consolidation efforts, during November, the global market share remains at around 55% for US-listed companies. In addition we see third parties shipping branded modules of tier-1 entities. In both cases the destination was the US.
Cells – General views
The cell market during November observed a 17% increase versus October. Q4 cell markets are located in India, driven by ReneSola’s OEM relationships and JA Solar. The second-largest destination for Chinese cells was Canada. The third destination, South Korea, was dominated by JA Solar’s contribution. JA Solar remains a leader of global cell deliveries. ReneSola is second, and Canadian comes in third. The top three destinations for Taiwanese cell exports during October were China, Japan and Hong Kong. The amount of cells shipped to China almost perfectly matches the amount of modules shipped to the US during November.
Wafers – General views
There was a 45% increase from October. The total volume of deliveries has exceeded 1GW during Q4. The largest three shippers are GCL, Longi and Taiwanese GET, with Longi being almost all mono and the rest being poly.The largest destinations thus far in Q4 are Taiwan, Malaysia and Japan. Despite no tariffs on wafer in the EU, overall delivery in Q4 was not significant, with Germany receiving the most volume. Out of the US listed, thus far in Q4, Canadian Solar has delivered most of the wafer, followed by LDK and ReneSola.
CN7 –General views
Companies observing growth in deliveries during November were Trina Solar at 56%, ReneSola and Yingli at 2%.
The top three companies for most global deliveries during Q4 are: Trina, Canadian Solar and ReneSola.
GADP (global average declared price) up movement was made by Yingli, Trina, Canadian Solar, and ReneSola. JA Solar, Jinko and Hanwha GADP dropped during November.
US-listed Chinese companies imported around 1,522MT in October. Yingli imported the most. In November, US-listed companies imported 1,681MT at a price increase of 2%.
Commentary by Dr. Jason Tsai
The Japanese market rebounded with nearly no decline in Q4; demand will be improved to a new high in the next Q1 rush.
Industry selling price is supported by the high margin. Since Japanese and US demand will be more than 50% in the next H1, the capacity bottleneck is controlled by Taiwan’s cells. Taiwan cell makers have big bargaining power to raise their selling prices.
Taiwan’s advantageous position also affects the wafer side. Taiwan lacks local wafer, and the demand of high-efficiency wafer is growing. China is the main wafer source for Taiwan usage. More than 60% is supplied by Chinese makers. But, after a consolidation among China wafer manufacturers and the exporting barrier, there are only eight main suppliers in the Taiwan market. This means wafer could keep its high selling price without worry about the competition.
The high price of wafer further pulls up poly’s price. Though the capacity is over the supply in polysilicon, they have no pressure to lower their price. The key is GCL. GCL is not worried about the poly stock if the selling amounts decline, because the entire inventory can be turned into wafer and keep selling well on the demand.
So, a macro supply and demand are not a main reason to affect the price of upstream; Taiwan’s cell and wafer capacity is.
A complete detail of SPVI November 2013 CEDR (China Export Data Report) includes Excel format:
- China weekly ASP for polysilicon, wafer, cell and module, during the month of December 2013
- Module Average Declaration Price (GADP) by countries and companies (All US listed and additional entities
- Module, cells and wafer deliveries by country and company in MW
- Watt efficiency averages for selected US listed companies
- Imported polysilicon by volume including source country and price, and the buying Company/Group. Data span from July to November of 2013
- Taiwanese cell and module exports in MW by destination, including average price. Data span from July to October 2013 34-Page PDF with charts, graphs and commentary.
The report can be purchased here.
