PV Taiwan, a trade show for the photovoltaic industry, has kicked off on Wednesday, 3rd October at the Taipei world trade centre. It is being organized by Semi and Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA), who are hoping to attract $200 million in orders. The show will feature 214 exhibitors from nine different countries, including some of the leading firms in the global solar industry, and is looking to beat its last year’s visitor count of 11,000.
Although the event is nowhere near as high profile as the European PVSEC, it is nonetheless being dubbed as “Asia’s most important PV event.” The continent is set to become the biggest PV market in the world due to rising demand and new solar initiatives from countries such as Japan, Saudi Arabia and India. In the second quarter of 2012, Asia accounted for 60% of the market growth as compared to a year-ago quarter. Taiwan itself contributed 17% of the total global cell production in 2011, and combined with China, they contribute more than 70% of the total supply and hold more than half of the c-Si cell and module global production share.
The first day of the trade show featured the CEO forum, which was attended by Jifan Gao, Chairman & CEO, Trina Solar Limited (ADR) (NYSE: TSL); and Hua Shu, Executive President, GCL-Poly. The PV executives have called on other firms to consider the primary problem of oversupply in the industry before making any decisions regarding capacity extension.
Interestingly, most of the executives gave differing forecasts about the coming quarters. The CEO of the Taiwan-based Neo Solar Power, Sam Hung, believes that the retailers have finished destocking and are now increasing their inventory levels; therefore, the PV market is poised for growth in Q4. On the other hand, Chang Ping-heng, the chief of Motech Industries, Taiwan’s largest solar cell manufacturer, is expecting a drag in orders in this month and the next.
Similarly, Gintech Energy Corp’s head is confident that the growth won’t occur until at least Q1 2013; as for the current and the next quarter, he is expecting things to get worse. Chang is not seeing any light in the near future because the problems associated with excess supply are still present, and the EU anti-dumping probe has created further uncertainty in the market. “The visibility [of demand] is very low, especially, since the first half of last year, the visibility has [dropped] to one month [from two months],” said the CEO while speaking in a press conference at the trade show. As for the fourth quarter, Chang believes that there is not going to be “a significant change.” Moreover, relatively colder year-end weather reduces the demand for energy, and hence the demand for solar panels also falls.
The CEO forum has highlighted the uncertain and volatile environment that is dominating this industry, which makes forecasting nearly impossible. The panel agreed that “visibility of the industry is extremely short.”
