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sunnysky

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Everything posted by sunnysky

  1. Meet China’s Clean Energy Wildcatters Who Are $9 Billion Richer http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/meet-china-s-clean-energy-wildcatters-who-are-9-billion-richer?
  2. UK installed 2.53GW of solar in Q1 2015 http://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/exclusive_uk_installed_2.53gw_of_solar_in_q1_2015_3425
  3. SoftBank, Bharti and Foxconn create joint venture for Indian renewable energy market http://www.photon.info/photon_news_detail_en.photon?id=93986
  4. Scientists Launch $150B 'Apollo' Plan To Make Clean Energy Cheaper Than Coal Power http://www.ibtimes.com/scientists-launch-150b-apollo-plan-make-clean-energy-cheaper-coal-power-1948637?
  5. Japan commits to 26 per cent cut in carbon emissions http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2411224/japan-commits-to-26-per-cent-cut-in-carbon-emissions
  6. Nothing I'm aware of other than some reports mentioning the Hanergy and YGE stories.
  7. SPI to Acquire Energiebau Solar Power GmbH http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/spi-to-acquire-energiebau-solar-power-gmbh-300091488.html?
  8. Could Middle East Switch From Oil To Renewable Superpower? http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Could-Middle-East-Switch-From-Oil-To-Renewable-Superpower.html
  9. JKS starts construction on 500MW cell and 450MW module factory in Malaysia with the world's most advanced equipment. http://solar.ofweek.com/2015-05/ART-260008-8460-28961366.html They plan to finish and ramp up to full production scale within two months. Average module efficiency is expected to be 18.5%. The factory will serve North America and Asian markets.
  10. Module cost drops to as low as 25 cents in the next decade? http://www.connectingindustry.com/EnergyManagement/another-nail-in-the-coffin-for-energy-companies-.aspx?
  11. sunnysky

    Trina Solar (TSL)

    RBC Capital raised their PT from $15.00 to $18.00. http://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/540202/trina-solar-limited-pt-raised-to-18-00-tsl/?
  12. This is not far off from what I think is Hanergy's thin film business: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2015/05/hanergy-let-there-be-no-doubt.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BronteCapital+%28Bronte+Capital%29
  13. The question is who would buy it (is it more economical for a country to build her own), not temporarily but longer term? And either way I think the Saudis has to find other ways to support their economy post oil.
  14. sunnysky

    Trina Solar (TSL)

    My gut feeling is that another equity offering could be in the cards when PPS gets around $13. Personally, I don't like it until the stock gets over $15.
  15. Saudi Arabia minister sees day when nation exports solar power, not oil http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2015/05/21/saudi-arabia-minister-sees-day-when-nation-exports-solar-power-not-oil/6LqzuD8DlgkluLCUNoUguL/story.html This makes one wonder what is the true reason behind Saudi's current strategy not cutting oil production. Do they want to sell as much oil as they can before its demise or to keep oil price low to damage the shale and renewable industries and thus delay the inevitable outcome? Anyone truly believe that Saudi would succeed in eventually becoming a solar power exporter?
  16. While I don't foresee a big run given the history (check out 14Q1 ER, which was a big beat, as a matter of fact, it was like a mirror image of the current, with the same consensus estimate etc), I really cannot see a material down side given the current sentiment of this sector. I think it should be a safe play, but with limited upside if history repeats.
  17. Sorry for the delay but here it is. Cell Revenue: $ 15,642 (Module/Cell = 742.6MW / 47.4MW, I projected higher shipment than guidance.) Module Revenue: $458,927 (ASP = $0.618, Cost = $0.521, GM = 15.70%) Total Revenue: $474,569 Cost of Revenue: $401,352 Gross Profit: $ 73,217 GM: 15.43% (Slightly down from prior quarter's 15.49%) Selling and G&A: $35,413 R&D: $ 6,200 Opex: $41,613 Income from Ops: $31,604 Ops Margin: 6.66% Interest Expense: -$10,200 Warrants Gain/Loss: -$ 3,100 Other Gain/Loss: -$ 2,000 Income before tax: $16,304 Tax: -$ 2,446 (15% tax rate) Net Income: $13,858 Net Margin: 2.92% Less Non-Controlling: $ 500 JASO Net Income: $13,358 Share Count: 59,956,380 (fully diluted including warrants) EPS: $0.22 GAAP, $0.27 Non-GAAP Upside surprise: CSIQ surprised us with a huge FX gain. If JASO managed to pull out anything similar, we could be seeing $0.29/$0.35 GAAP and Non-GAAP EPS, respectively. There is no doubt that the company is going to blow out the consensus estimate coming Monday (I in fact wonder why the analysts played low ball here.). The stock action following the release, however, could be another story. GLTA!
  18. China is planning to raise renewable energy tariff http://solar.ofweek.com/2015-05/ART-260009-8120-28956696.html The current rate is 1.5 cents per kwh. The increase is needed to fill the large gap in the FiT pool.
  19. sunnysky

    JA Solar (JASO)

    Not much details except they are going to utilize each other's expertise in their respective field.
  20. sunnysky

    CEDR Posts

    Well said solarpete. Odyd, do allow a bit more time if possible.
  21. That estimate will surely be revised down. I think CSIQ is lowballing their margin on modules. Even if the overall margin (module + EPC) is similar to what it was in 14Q1, I see they can easily come up with $0.27 per share for 15Q2. Yes, it looks to me $0.27 is about the bottom. (They had benefited a lot from FX gain in Q1. My estimate for Q2 assumes no gain or loss from FX.) In any case, Q2 ER will be a turning point. Instead of a down trend in EPS due to the winding-down of the build-to-sell plant pipeline, which causes the stock to take a beating despite an out-of-the-ballpark estimate beat, we should be seeing an upward curve with the development and growth of the yiledco portfolio. So like SUNE, the stock is most likely to spike after ER. And unlike SUNE, CSIQ will remain to be profitable.
  22. MIT says solar power fields with trillions of watts of capacity are on the way http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/green-computing/3610819/mit-says-solar-power-fields-with-trillions-of-watts-of-capacity-are-on-the-way/? A massive study on solar power by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) came to two main conclusions: Solar energy holds the best potential for meeting the planet's long-term energy needs while reducing greenhouse gasses and federal and state governments must do more to promote its development.
  23. sunnysky

    CEDR Posts

    I concur. Is another round of campaign in order?
  24. Bad day for the big market, but CSIQ performed relevantly well. Tomorrow will be the last day before ER so some further volatility is expected. On the other hand, the big market is shaping up to rebound and CSIQ might have a small run-up before the announcement. The consensus estimate has been coming down steadily form the original 82 cents, to 63 cents, and then to 60 cents now on Yahoo. This bodes well for an easy beat in my opinion. I had 3 estimates based on combinations of factors, mainly opex and tax charge/benefits assumptions. In the ideal scenario, the company would have been able to maintain a similar level of opex in 15Q1 despite a sharp jump in module shipment volume (taking into account factors such as absence of year-end compensation expenses etc), but received no help from deferred tax credit. Here is the breakdown of the expected earnings in this case: Project Revenue: $180,250 Module Revenue: $594,750 (ASP = $0.61, Cost = $0.502, GM = 17.70%) Total Revenue: $775,000 Cost of Revenue: $631,906 Gross Profit: $143,094 GM: 18.46% Selling: $40,342 G&A: $25,000 R&D: $ 3,500 Opex: $68,842 Income from Ops: $74,252 Ops Margin: 9.58% Interest Expense: -$12,200 Interest Income: $ 4,200 FX Gain/Loss: -$ 4,000 Other Gain/Loss: $ 500 Income before tax: $62,752 Tax: $15,688 (25% tax rate) Net Income: $47,064 Net Margin: 6.07% Less Non-Controlling: $3,000 CSIQ Net Income: $44,064 Share Count: 60,206,680 EPS: $0.73 In a less ideal but probably more realistic scenario, opex would have gone up with shipment volume somewhat linearly (about $7M more). My estimate of EPS in this case is $0.64. Finally, it's possible CSIQ had utilized their deferred tax asset. In this case, EPS will be higher.
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