pg6solar
LifeTime Member-
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Everything posted by pg6solar
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Love JA's transparency: they gave a very detailed ASPs for both Q1 and Q2 by country like no one else before; CFO was openly questioning President; finally both (CFO and President) have no clue what's holding up Chairman/CEO from completing a buyout (both hinted that current low Market Cap is a non-issue if Chairman really wanted to).
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"Buyout" is turning into a total BS.
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Yes if you deduct this (one time) "profit" of $36M from net income of $51M, you'll end up with about .$29 EPS. Still not bad.
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Now that I'm out of TSL, I do not trade (but still hold small positions in JKS, JA, CSIQ with much larger FSLR, which I'm stuck in for now) any solars (there's no meaningful delta) and just waiting for retest of lows from November. If you want something to "trade", look no further that DRYS (not a "recommendation", but extremely volatile).
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HQCL - can not buy in and more importantly no way to get out (as you said no volume). Why not wait a week for a possible big JA deep followed by the one for CSIQ?
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Thanks.
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Thanks for sharing, Explo. Any particular concern with CSIQ "longer" term or you're planning to re-enter after the expected drop on the 21st?
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Sold out. Goodbye Trina.
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Yet the short interest, just like with TSL, is non-existent. Either they wait for TSL to go out officially (and I play it such as once it happens, should be this month, JA's PPS will/should move up) hence short interest is low, or if they are sure JA is not following TSL and once JA reports on 16th with terrible guidance, shorts will pile on and PPS will plummet fast (PPS dropped 4% from 2% down to 6% down within seconds earlier today, so they can do as the please). I hope TSL departs before 16th so JA has a chance to move up.
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Since there's no TSL thread, price action and volume indicate take out is close.
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Unlikely. The did the same last year - pre announce about this time then ER on 3/15 (now it states "final results" 3/16).
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Yes.
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NEP's yield at current PPS is not attractive. I'd rather get PEGI for double yield or even BP at 50% more yield.
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There's a rumor that US may pull out of the Paris Climate agreement within days.
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Stock can now be traded only in nickel increments and absent volume is just noise. As soon as I posted above, I see the release of their Q1 results...for 2016.
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I added a bit more here to complete the position. Lets see what happens in Q1.
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Since Trina no longer has its own thread here, I'm posting here: http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16687207-leading-independent-proxy-advisory-firms-iss-egan-jones-recommend-trina-solar-shareholders
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Explo, are you adding to CSIQ/JKS/JASO (all winners) now since they're all around multiyear lows (JA fresh lows, while CSIQ/JKS not quite at lows of weeks ago)? By your portfolio %, looks like not. My understanding is while they're all very low, lower is anticipated soon (1-3 months).
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Except it does not apply to the solar sector. Six years ago there were ten, 10, Chinese companies (including SOLF and counting CSIQ). Now there are only three left (TSL is expected to be gone, assuming no surprise on the 16th). JASO is an "unofficial" next candidate. With JKS just completing sale of its Power unit and with possibility of further PPS pressure, they could be next. So there maybe be only CSIQ left to invest. Looks like FSLR, with all its current "issues", could be the only other one available for us when/if S6 is successful. So much for ten year horizons in "the solar land". Yes it was a great ten plus years run, but it about to be over soon (for US and generally Western investors). Solars is a long term winner, no questions about it. Will there be any or enough US listed companies left to hold? That is the question.
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PPS predictions at this point are pure speculations. For example, six months ago after JKS' Q2 ER in May, JKS had a "PT" of $36 by the end of the year. Its trading at $14 now and further PPS move down is "expected".
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Why would TSL calm the markets? Its not like they are raising equity so need higher PPS. If they're able (directly or indirectly) to purchase shares on the open market for lower than the take out price, why wouldn't they? I do not see how PPS falling prior to the Vote is a disadvantage to them and do not think any such release will be issued (other than maybe "we do not comment on daily market volatility").
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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-investment-idUSKBN13K1QX The only part applicable to TSL is this: "...Other overseas transactions affected will be investments in overseas-listed companies that are less than 10 percent of those firms' total equity, direct investments made by limited partnerships and Chinese capital trying to participate in the delisting of overseas-listed Chinese companies, the WSJ said."
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I speculate they walked the PPS down (and will keep it there) to guarantee a YES vote on the 16th. A 26%+ return (vs. 15% just two trading days ago) vs. PPS collapse of at least 25% from now ( to mid $6s) if vote is NO.
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Thanks.