pg6solar

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Everything posted by pg6solar

  1. Everyone is entitled to own interpretation of what was written. However, one sentence is undeniable: "The size of the beat, 26% higher module shipments above the midpoint of guidance and 15% higher revenues above midpoint of guidance, raises an eyebrow given that the guidance was given on 3/21 with 10 days remaining in Q1". It was widely expected for CSIQ to have really "bad" Q1 which they did not relatively speaking. Its not unreasonable to assume they "moved" some of Q2 to Q1 to sweeten Q1's otherwise bad results. Also agree with author's (relative to each other) Q2 guidance of CSIQ vs. JKS.
  2. Based on yesterday's stocks movement, market did not "buy" the argument...yet.
  3. I think if anything, JKS' shares were significantly raised while CSIQ's stayed dormant. So while it appeared JKS dropped, the delta is $5 currently, which is above $4 something it was in early May, before ERs were announce later on.
  4. No shots.
  5. Right that's why one does in/out on .20 moves. What is .20, or .50 or even a $1 long term?
  6. Common Explo, my reply was regarding DQ since this was the conversation, not JKS. I was continuing DQ conversation when JKS got mixed in between my posts.
  7. If there's an effect of Trina's leaving, its in my opinion a negative one toward CN solars. Look at CSIQ's pathetic volume on ER date - previous two ERs volume (after definitive Trina offer) was "only" over 5M ea (last August at was 19M). Today its on path to be under 3M. No interest from the market.
  8. Market does not care. Can one buy a few (even one) thousand shares at a time without immediately effecting the price and then even worse, selling all without price dropping? Not easily.
  9. It goes well outside JA's topic, but what was that (now almost completely deflated) 30+% pop in JKS over one week in late May on excellent volume (of course 20+% of the move was gone in a single day on super volume)? There were opinions of equity raising which never materialized.
  10. Well going private did not remove Trina from (I am sure) still being a global player. JKS "sold" their most profitable cash cow. They no longer need US listing to be a major player as China IS the place to be for foreseeable future. The main reason IMHO to stay here is to go to equity markets. Will they? I would bet not and if so will go "private" eventually too, leaving only CSIQ as the only non-ADR player (well there's FSLR, but its a different story).
  11. Since stock has almost to liquidity, its very difficult to buy "enough" DQ on the bottom then sell it all close to the top to make good money.
  12. Thanks. Then at least the CEO is not a crook and was truthful when stating Chairman could no longer buy on the open market. Why put ceiling and shares then?
  13. It was not a "bad ER". They met (even beat) low expectation. Bad would be GMs below JKS' 11% with $40M (instead of $13M) or so loss. We still may see $11 or lower (especially with any market hick up for which we over due), but not today.
  14. I guess the question is can Chairman buy stock on the open market? As per Ja's ER in May, CEO said no he can not. But I wonder if its true, hence a "non-binding" offer instead of a biding one. Maybe, a pure speculation, non-binding part allows him to buy ADRs on the open market. If he can, it explains a two year delay and even lower "offer" to put ceiling on the share price. If he can't, why just not to put a binding offer.
  15. The reasons given for significantly lowering the "offer" should and will IMHO put ,at least in a short term, pressure on US listed CN solar stocks. Its clear JKS will be next in not so distant future, which really leaves only CSIQ as an "investable" "CN" solar listed in the US.
  16. They made it...barely - 13.5%. But posted a loss anyway.
  17. Yes, JKS gave Q1 (official) guidance of 12-15% during Q4 ER in February in Q&A session. And in today's ER's Q&A they mostly blamed high OEM shipments (and higher poly to some degree) for missing the above guided margins (they did not provide margins going forward). Their blended costs actually went up Q/Q. So if CSIQ has high OEM shipments (like JKS, with its corresponding much higher then internal costs, especially considering CSIQ is still less integrated) to meet "demand", they'll most likely miss on GMs too. One thing in CSIQ's favor is they reported almost at the end of Q1, so maybe, maybe they'll be in range.
  18. Yes they (CSIQ) did. JKS, however badly missed on their 12% to 15% guidance range, of course JKS reported 4 weeks earlier so CSIQ should have better Q1 GMs visibility, but we'll see. Edit: lets keep in mind that JKS IMHO mostly missed on margins due to huge OEM shipments and if CSIQ will have the same (huge shipments relative to as guided), they'll miss too.
  19. JKS to CSIQ delta was about $4.50 on May 18th and over $8 on May 25th...we are back to about $4.50 now. Will the gap increase tomorrow (no, JKS will not be the one to cause it) and by how much? CSIQ to $11? $10? I've been waiting for these since I missed CSIQ in March and November respectively. Am ready now.
  20. JKS had 11% GMs because of both outsourcing and low ASPs. If CSIQ will ship any meaningful volume (of course nowhere close to JKS') even with ASP premium of say $.40, they're looking for margins under 10% and a loss (sold projects as announced will not bring profits).
  21. Yes they mentioned both with high confidence (especially the former), but it felt analysts were not "buying it".
  22. For Jinko as I recall, mono PERC will be 25% of their in-house module capacity of 8GW by year end.
  23. Blended ASPs are stable in Q2 (vs Q1) and only slightly down in Q3 (not more than 5% from Q1) helped by increased mono Perc shipments (from 100mw in Q1, to 200/250mg in Q2, to 500mg in each Q3 and Q4).
  24. Yes they mentioned OEM costs are up in Q1, hence blended costs were up (higher poly did not help too). Yes, I felt the same in questions of two participants - high capex and constant cash burn / negative cash flow / low margins.
  25. Yes.