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pg6solar

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Everything posted by pg6solar

  1. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    They were asked why their competitors (read CSIQ) reported significantly higher margins. The reply was basically "it is not sustainable". Keep in mind that CSIQ reported exactly double GMs of JKS (taking CVD out, 25% or so for CSIQ vs. 12.5% or so for JKS). How can this great margins disparity continue? JKS said they expect margins to remain stable (read mid-upper 12% not including one timers, not 15%+ they said before). This means CSIQ's manufacturing business margins have to go down eventually or sooner than later.
  2. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Jinko has changed timing of its CC from 6:30 AM to 7:30AM. That and CSIQ's reported about 25% GMs on manufacturing business, I'm cautiously optimistic now for next Monday.
  3. pg6solar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    CSIQ's manufacturing margins were outstanding. How will JKS do? I guess anything over15%GMs and JKS should run considering it was murdered over the last few months.
  4. pg6solar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Qu is not considering options 1) and 3). His reply was: "...A very good question. Why don't you ask the same all the other solar companies?". He clearly focused on option 2). What is the dividend FSLR, with no debt, pays? Correct, none. How about AAPL with billion$ and billion$ and billion$? 1.5%, that's it. If they want dividend, they should buy PEGI or CWEN.
  5. pg6solar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    The question is, why its not falling (yet)? Is it because CN solars risk on again - both DQ and JKS up around 33-35% from very recent lows?
  6. pg6solar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    The way I understood today's PR, CSIQ is nowhere close to going private and more importantly IMHO not at $18.47 if it ever happens. Let's see how long it will take for CSIQ to JKS PPS gap to be significantly eroded.
  7. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    UBS cuts JKS from $18 (that's what sold shares for in February) to $12. They maintain "buy" which is 50% upside at today's price of $8 and I will gladly take $12, but now not in a year.
  8. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    In August of 2012, JKS was at $2 with MC of only $50M. With current market correction, it went down from $12 something to $7 something in one month. If "they" are correct by saying that "correction" is only half done, who is to say that JKS won't touch $2 something again with further market plunge?
  9. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Its not the day, its the time. Who going to be on the call at 6:30AM? The point being that report might be even (much) worse that's already expected.
  10. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    JKS reports on Nov. 26...CC is at 6:30AM! That's Monday after the Thanksgiving weekend. I guess they do not want anyone on the call. I wonder why?
  11. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Same "news" as why FSLR hit below $43.
  12. pg6solar

    Solar News

    Assuming CSIQ will go private well before 2020, the question remains will JKS? Because if JKS will "go private" too, who cares about huge CN install number after 2020, since we'll have no way to "participate".
  13. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Just check the calendar. Jinko reported Q1 on June 26th! Shame on them. "Go private" or not, they are no longer to be trusted. There's only one left for now and hopefully Qu will keep his word. Then the true king - FSLR - will be the only one US listed. While I hope CSIQ can report close to 20-22% Q2 GMs guided, their Q1 call was in mid May or two weeks prior to CN policy shift, so unlike JKS, they have a valid reason should they come under, which most likely they will unless they sell more plants (which based on releases is unlikely). How market will look at it is anyone's guess.
  14. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    About two weeks ago JKS to CSIQ delta intraday was about .20 cents, then JKS ran up to over $2 in just over a week. In PM now delta is back to about .20 cents (I have now idea what CSIQ will report tomorrow, nor market's reaction to it).
  15. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    So first they blamed OEM for drop in GMs in Q2, now they are crediting OEM (due to falling component prices) as a defense of their Q1 comments regarding 15% GMs for H2. Time will tell.
  16. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    JKS' "explanation" of why GMs fell is total BS. They reported Q1 in mid June. They did not know that GMs will fall from 14% to 12% with two weeks left in Q2? Who will believe their H2 guidance of 15+% GMs with even more OEM?
  17. https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2757779&headline=PEGI-Pattern-Energy-rating-change-
  18. pg6solar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Very good theory. It has one small problem with it though. One can not put a market order after (or before) hours. All extended hours trading require limit price only. Market price can be placed only during market's normal business hours 9:30-4.
  19. pg6solar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    $15.69 print immediately after the close. Tried selling bunch just under - no takers. Looks like 2K shares went @15.69 after 4PM. WTF was that? Can not say I've seen a "mistake" like that before.
  20. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    I realize that this GMs guidance of say 15% ( I heard 18%, but will accept 15% since won't re-listen to the call) is given after CN policy change, still their Q1 (and Q2) GMs are well behind of CSIQ's: From CSIQ Q1CC: "Shawn Qu The manufacturing business is more or like stable in Q1, our manufacturing gross margin we’re seeing in high teens and in Q2 we also see that in the high teens level." Above does not include projects (with projects, CSIQ's Q2 GMs were stated in low 20%s). So either CSIQ's manufacturing is suddenly much more efficient that Jinko's or one of them is BSing us.
  21. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    We were both wrong on GMs: "Cao Haiyun First, you're right. I think the policy put us at very good position to streamline the supply chain. And we are expecting a significant cost improvement starting from June this year. So regarding the gross margin, because we have very solid booking and we discussed and we have already received a lot of prepayments and we think the most of the booking bill will excludable. So, actually the gross margin we think in the second is quite stable quarter-by-quarter. But for the second half year we expect a moderate improvement for the gross margin. And its highly possible, gross margin will be over 13%." They're full of it. 13%, after posting "disappointing" 14.4%, should be cheered? "Stable" should mean about 14% for Q2. "Moderate improvement" should mean 15%+, not just "over 13%".
  22. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Read Q&A - very, very vague "answers" on basically every question. No longer to be trusted, IMO. What's next, a buyout offer at $17?
  23. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    If (big IF) they hit their shipments and GMs (currently not really believable) guidance, stock should recover all losses suffered since 5/31.
  24. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    IMO, 15% would be "stable" (as compared to 14.4% for Q1) as they said for Q2. Lets wait for transcript. Regardless what they say, analysts are not buying it. No clear explanation to Brian Lee's question on how are they going to fill the shipments guidance.
  25. pg6solar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    From CC: 1. GMs for second half - "possible" 18%. Not clear if for Q3 or Q4 or both. 2. In house cost at .24-.25 by EOY with blended .01 more. My take, analysts are not buying it based on their tone and questions.
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