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Everything posted by pg6solar

  1. Oh No! All my FSLR is in tax free account (the only holding there) from $57 (when it lost 25% last year from $75) and here's zero benefit for me to sell for a loss in that account. If I transfer securities from tax free IRA account to a regular taxable account I can take realized loss but would have to pay tax plus penalty on distribution (US tax code is a bit too complex in this specific case for non-US person. and even for most Americans as well). After they scraped series 5, I would never buy them until $25 the most.
  2. Sure CSIQ is more expensive than JKS. Canadian being a true "Canadian" incorporated company with stock shares instead of ADRs on the US exchanges has to count for some thing. FSLR is still significantly more expensive than CN3 combined (even after being booted from S&P), with a lot of risk associated with series 6.
  3. Agree on FSLR (though I'm still waiting for maybe an other 10%) and JASO (started selling my small exposure). I would not buy JKS here over CSIQ at current PPS for both, especially if CSIQ can deliver $4B revenue as guided.
  4. Sorry, but nothing makes sense anymore. Selling FSLR for loss with PT of $46 or selling JASO with PT of $8+, while buying JKS with a PT of $28. Because JKS in % terms has the biggest upside to its PT from the current PPS? What happened to previously expressed displeasure with JKS selling Power business on a cheap?
  5. JASO after ER CC is trading as if market expectation is for it to follow TSL.
  6. Thanks, Explo. Nice comparison chart they have decided to include on page 22. They left a tiny bit detail out - the Debt.
  7. $4? Even better (sarcasm, would be a nightmare). $8 PT is bad enough (I'm sure Odyd would strongly disagree). Any views on FSLR? TIA.
  8. Explo are you suggesting a PT of $30 JKS and PT of $8 CSIQ? Or you just mean you won't buy CSIQ until $8?
  9. A different perspective. If I recall correctly, Canadian did not have to book a $44M duty charge in Q4, but still "chose" (I think that's what Qu said) to do it at that time (yes its possible it gets reverted ala JASO in the future, if "defended" successfully). Why? I think if they had to do it in Q1, results would be truly ugly.
  10. They guided the most revenues of any solar by a huge margin, so yes hopefully that revenues are not just break even.
  11. I may have to revisit yesterday's CSIQ numbers, but the first thing that struck me yesterday was that it appeared to me that CSIQ was about break even in Q4 with plant sales (when taking all adjustments out - negative $44M, positive $48M and negative $16M, totaling a negative $12M adjustment on a negative $13M net reported, so operationally they lost $1M, lets call it even, but that's with plants sales). I would say they lost money in Q4 on modules with their "light assets model", that's why they will quadruple ingots and wafers, double cells while increasing module capacity very very modestly.
  12. Also they amending an assets light approach - will quadruple ingots and wafers, will double cell while increasing modules only marginally.
  13. Operationally. they were about break even in Q4 taking out $44M charge, $48M gain and an other $16 charge (all one timers). Looks like their 2017 module business is going to be profitless at roughly $2B revenues. So profit should come mainly from the plants and the longer they wait selling them the lesser the profit. CSIQ of 2013/2014 is no more.
  14. Well, CSIQ was first to post a loss, on a one timer, but a loss nevertheless. 2017 revenues guidance is massive due to as much as 50% accounted by plants sales. $4B is nothing to sniff at if they can deliver that with positive EPS for 2017.
  15. I wasn't questioning why FSLR is down. I was curious what caused 18M volume on down side, with 1/3 of the total day's volume traded on the close (including first 20 minutes AH). S&P rebalance is the answer.
  16. Huge volume for FSLR on a downside, especially on close (25%). Is it simply options expiration and S&P exit rebalance related, or is it something else?
  17. Love JA's transparency: they gave a very detailed ASPs for both Q1 and Q2 by country like no one else before; CFO was openly questioning President; finally both (CFO and President) have no clue what's holding up Chairman/CEO from completing a buyout (both hinted that current low Market Cap is a non-issue if Chairman really wanted to).
  18. "Buyout" is turning into a total BS.
  19. Yes if you deduct this (one time) "profit" of $36M from net income of $51M, you'll end up with about .$29 EPS. Still not bad.
  20. Now that I'm out of TSL, I do not trade (but still hold small positions in JKS, JA, CSIQ with much larger FSLR, which I'm stuck in for now) any solars (there's no meaningful delta) and just waiting for retest of lows from November. If you want something to "trade", look no further that DRYS (not a "recommendation", but extremely volatile).
  21. HQCL - can not buy in and more importantly no way to get out (as you said no volume). Why not wait a week for a possible big JA deep followed by the one for CSIQ?
  22. Thanks.
  23. Thanks for sharing, Explo. Any particular concern with CSIQ "longer" term or you're planning to re-enter after the expected drop on the 21st?
  24. Sold out. Goodbye Trina.