86 replies to this topic

[eysteinh]

Ok. Sounds good. Odyd I commented on asp earlier. They saw decline in china asp starting of q2 but it has stabilized and they see demand surge for end of 2014 so they think it could even go up again.  Japan asp was flat into q2. 

Another funny thing happened. Seekingalpha editor changed the heading from a miss to beat and from 0.06 to 0.23 ADS. Good for Jaso holders.

http://seekingalpha....eats-on-revenue

 

Hi,
We have rectified the post to reflect comparison of ADS with consensus which translates into a beat.
Thanks
--
SA Editor Mohit

 

[explo]

Not listening right now, any guidance on GM? What has been said about ASP?

 

GM slightly down in Q2 due increased domestic shipment then up again in 2H. ASP stable except slightly down in China. Might surge in 2H.

[odyd]

ASP down, what is GM expectation?

[spiritcraft]

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. The failure of the club was people who claim to be investors not able, to secure information for their investments. Buying JASO yesterday and selling pre-market today, on $10K investment would pay for a whole year of CEDR under the club.

Anyways I am sure that alternative cost per a month went to equally valuable cause, like a Sunday lunch. or a full tank of gas.

How close was it anyway?

[JulyWebb]

GM slightly down in Q2 due increased domestic shipment then up again in 2H. ASP stable except slightly down in China. Might surge in 2H.

 

ASP is stable in Japan and the EU, else where except slightly down in China. Not mentioned but what will be shipped to the US will have higher ASP's according to GTM.

[odyd]

GM slightly down in Q2 due increased domestic shipment then up again in 2H. ASP stable except slightly down in China. Might surge in 2H.

Thanks explo, did we get ASP boost in Q1 over Q4?

[odyd]

ASP is stable in Japan and the EU, else where except slightly down in China. Not mentioned but what will be shipped to the US will have higher ASP's according to GTM.

For the US I doubt that a lot. In the EU minimum price manages the ASP. In Japan ASP will go down in Q2. The US will see boost of volumes in Q2 and ASP will drop there.

[pg6solar]

ASP down, what is GM expectation?

They expect GM (for them) to be flat (IMO at best) for the rest of the year. But if they see any further pressure to GMs, they'll concentrate on the revenues and the bottom line. 

[odyd]

They expect GM (for them) to be flat (IMO at best) for the rest of the year. But if they see any further pressure to GMs, they'll concentrate on the revenues and the bottom line

This is good answer

[sunnysky]

except slightly down in China

 

JASO expected China price to be stable after some initial decline in early Q2 and said price could increase in H2 due to high demand. Eysteinh has posted this earlier.

[JulyWebb]

 

 

JASO expected China price to be stable after some initial decline in early Q2 and said price could increase in H2 due to high demand. Eysteinh has posted this earlier.

 

Closing remarks of the CC they talked about being in New York next week meeting with investors and attending a conference in New York. I didn't get the name of the Conference, What did you hear?

[JulyWebb]

For the US I doubt that a lot. In the EU minimum price manages the ASP. In Japan ASP will go down in Q2. The US will see boost of volumes in Q2 and ASP will drop there.

I'm saying what GTM Research has written about ASP Prices being shipped from China to the US. 

[BIPV Investor]

I'm saying what GTM Research has written about ASP Prices being shipped from China to the US. 

 

That is simply because of tariff concerns, not because ASP are rising in US. If no tariffs, then ASP will continue to slowly trend down.

[JulyWebb]

That is simply because of tariff concerns, not because ASP are rising in US. If no tariffs, then ASP will continue to slowly trend down.

Okay but I think it would benefit now until resolution of US decision and that's been pushed out once again til July.

[pgo]

Okay but I think it would benefit now until resolution of US decision and that's been pushed out once again til July.

I look at it negatively as it keeps the uncertain clouds around longer and we have no clear winning formula until things are settled. More bearish.

[explo]

Thanks explo, did we get ASP boost in Q1 over Q4?

 

I did not catch that. Generally their message was bottom line growth. So if they grow revenue at this GM the bottom line will grow. For example adding more cell sales would increase net profit while decreasing GM.

[BIPV Investor]

I look at it negatively as it keeps the uncertain clouds around longer and we have no clear winning formula until things are settled. More bearish.

 

Yes unequivocally a negative. These stocks will tread water at best until there is clarity on the tariff situation. The market's reaction to JASO this morning makes that very clear. Earnings don't matter unless there is visibility on the sustainability of those earnings.

[Bodhi]

Yes unequivocally a negative. These stocks will tread water at best until there is clarity on the tariff situation. The market's reaction to JASO this morning makes that very clear. Earnings don't matter unless there is visibility on the sustainability of those earnings.

Well put. Clear example of this is SCTY where basically they're saying we have revenue streams guaranteed for the next 20 years every time we lease a system... BUT! you know how topsy turvey the CN solar market is.  Logically what you say makes sense, but the market can change its mind in an instant with no reason.  That's the main reason i stay vested for now...

[sunnysky]

odyd, on 08 May 2014 - 09:25 AM, said:

Thanks explo, did we get ASP boost in Q1 over Q4?

 

Result of my calibration:

 

Cell cost:                 0.34

Cell ASP:                 0.40

Module cost:            0.5670

Module ASP:            0.6860

Cell GM:                   15.00%

Module GM:              17.35%

 

So looks like 1.6 cents increase on module ASP and 2.3 cents on cell ASP. Cost has also increased a bit - I have it at 1 cent for both cells and modules.

[Bodhi]

They expect GM (for them) to be flat (IMO at best) for the rest of the year. But if they see any further pressure to GMs, they'll concentrate on the revenues and the bottom line. 

I won't drop other CN names in the JASO thread, but this is the reason i stay vested in the GM leaders.  In the case of a GM Freeze, who's margins will allow them to develop further than others.  

JM2c