86 replies to this topic

[pg6solar]

Great results...but no reaction from the market. Last year on Q1 ER day, while printing a loss but showing "improvements", there was already a massive volume by this time on the way to higher PPS that day than currently. Amazing manipulation.

[odyd]

You are in right place now

The only confusion here that perhaps we expected the beat to Q4, 2013, which had $14M gain, with the loss of $5M. this but variable worth $20M under the expectation. However nobody will be printing "miss", which is important. I thought Q2 guidance is strong and volume for 2014-full year is great.

[explo]

Regarding all their complicated EPS formulas I think the non-GAAP net profit divided by diluted shares is best adjusted EPS indicator of operational performance:

 

$18.7m / (228.7m / 5) = $0.41 per diluted ADS

 

up from Q4:

 

$8.9m / (218.4m / 5) = $0.20 per diluted ADS

[eysteinh]

If anyone want to listen in earnings call of jaso starts in 5 minutes (8 am eastern) \

[odyd]

Regarding all their complicated EPS formulas I think the non-GAAP net profit divided by diluted shares is best adjusted EPS indicator of operational performance:

 

$18.7m / (228.7m / 5) = $0.41 per diluted ADS

 

up from Q4:

 

$8.9m / (218.4m / 5) = $0.20 per diluted ADS

Operationally they have delivered excellent outcome.

[sunnysky]

Great results...but no reaction from the market. Last year on Q1 ER day, while printing a loss but showing "improvements", there was already a massive volume by this time on the way to higher PPS that day than currently. Amazing manipulation.

 

My estimate of derivs is off this time. Chances are they've changed valuation parameters - need to dig into it and re-calibrate. But my GAAP EPS estimate of 0.27 is not too far from the actual of 0.23. Had wished better margins but terrific result nonetheless.  Yes, the forward guidance is great and should help the stock well. I'm really happy that we can start to look for growth again in Q2. Hopefully, we'll see the dame optimistic view from others. 

[odyd]

7% up pre-market, I think CEDR did its job, what you think?

[sunnysky]

Regarding all their complicated EPS formulas I think the non-GAAP net profit divided by diluted shares is best adjusted EPS indicator of operational performance:

 

$18.7m / (228.7m / 5) = $0.41 per diluted ADS

 

up from Q4:

 

$8.9m / (218.4m / 5) = $0.20 per diluted ADS

 

They used the same fully diluted ADR count of 58,949,957. If you plug this in, it's a simple division (I'm able to match both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS).  So the impact from tax in comparison to Q4 is 15 cents.

[Pop2mollys]

Great numbers! Company really seems to be turning a corner. Going to hold all my shares long for awhile, as I think she might run quite a bit. Love the guidance!

[odyd]

There is a good chance today that JASO will pass TSL share price.

[sunnysky]

7% up pre-market, I think CEDR did its job, what you think?

 

Yes, my estimates of module and cell shipments are almost spot on. Revenue estimate is pretty close also. Extremely useful not only for modeling but also see the the trend change and differentiation of companies. Thanks for your hard work to get it out in time for the earnings!

[explo]

7% up pre-market, I think CEDR did its job, what you think?

 

 Sure did.

[eysteinh]

Sweet on CC now they said they expect a surge of demand in second half of 2014 - including from DG. 

[pg6solar]

7% up pre-market, I think CEDR did its job, what you think?

Yes and that's why failure of the CEDR Club is a shame.

[eysteinh]

Jaso regarding Q2 outlook both asp and where shipments: (please keep in mind I just wrote this as I heard it so hopefully correct)
 

Q2 estimated shipments:

30% china.

35% ASIA inc japan.

15% Europe

20% America

8% Rest of world

 

Asp outlook:

Japan flat/stable. Same ting for europe.

China: Starting from beginning Q2 went down a little bit, stable currently. For the rest of the year dont 

anticipate decline. May come back in 2nd part because of strong demand.

More than half shipped to uk of 15% to Eu.

 

I think the great news for me is that JASO sees china asp to stable and could even go back up again. I  expected this but very nice to hear it from a CEO of one of the better companies as well.

 

By the way earlier they mention one specific black cell type of module that could get up to 290 Watt for a 60 cell. That is very nice watt class.

[odyd]

Nothing ventured, nothing gained. The failure of the club was people who claim to be investors not able, to secure information for their investments. Buying JASO yesterday and selling pre-market today, on $10K investment would pay for a whole year of CEDR under the club.

Anyways I am sure that alternative cost per a month went to equally valuable cause, like a Sunday lunch. or a full tank of gas.

[JulyWebb]

On 100 MW of Project under construction they have a Buyer that is ready to finalize, it is up to them if they choose to accept the proposal. Modules they use in their Project Development are not included in the shipments or in Guidance of shipments from my understanding.

[eysteinh]

Yes julywebb they said 30% to china q2 did not include shipments to own projects.

[odyd]

Not listening right now, any guidance on GM? What has been said about ASP?

[JulyWebb]

The 100 MW of Project has been under construction since Q4 that I know so I would imagine the completion is close. Eysteinh this buyer that is ready I would see no reason why JA or any CN Solar couldn't sell the project before it is finished if they chose. However it makes sense to hold out for other offers.