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Klothilde

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Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 7:50am

JKS now the lowest cost producer among solar 11

OMG all-in costs of 54 cents ! 45 for non-si and 9 for si.

I don't like the leverage but in terms of costs they are rock & rolling.

pg6solar

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Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 7:55am

Unfortunately, their ASPs are likewise. It remain to be seen how successful they'll be in diversifying into higher ASPs markets.

odyd12

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Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 7:56am

If they can do it other Chinese can (processing). If the others can get higher ASP, than things are moving in right direction.

Bodhi

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Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 8:02am

I know thoughts have been posted about the FSLR.... but i'm really not seeing how its a good thing for the china 11? Aside from the 'PV won the race', which isn't entirely true, how exactly does this help? I know yesterday was 80% short covering, which in the long term is good, but am i missing something here?
Thanks!
KW

Klothilde

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Thursday, April 11th 2013, 6:27am

If they can do it other Chinese can (processing). If the others can get higher ASP, than things are moving in right direction.


That's a very good point and leads me to another question that I'm struggling with:

Why are JKS's non-si costs significantly lower than YGE's and TSL's even though the latter ones have double the capacity and a way longer track record in the market ???

Even the non-si goals for year-end 2013 are much lower for JKS. JKS targets 40 cents, while YGE and TSL target 45 cents.

Anybody have a clue on what's going on here?

explo

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Thursday, April 11th 2013, 6:49am

JKS have newer capacity, fully utilized.

Dan

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Thursday, April 11th 2013, 6:51am

give to YGE some $$.. they will buy more machines
give to JKS some $$.. they will upgrade their machines

odyd12

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Thursday, April 11th 2013, 7:28am

600MW of Panda platform (imho) costing more using still old process. They could be upgrading to to recent formats offered by ECN but I am not sure, if they will ( my opinion)
On the other hand TSL could be in the same place with Jinko if fully utilized (more so expectation on my part)

Klothilde

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Thursday, April 11th 2013, 8:05am

600MW of Panda platform (imho) costing more using still old process. They could be upgrading to to recent formats offered by ECN but I am not sure, if they will ( my opinion)
On the other hand TSL could be in the same place with Jinko if fully utilized (more so expectation on my part)


thxs for your thoughts to you and explo. YGE guided 15% of Q4 production to be Panda, so costs of Panda must be quite high indeed (incl underutilization) if this is to explain a large chunk of the cost difference.

TSL presumably was @48 cents in Q4 ajusting for unterutilization.

One thing I noticed with JKS is a humongous disconnect between the stated production cost and the derived COGS when factoring with shipment figures.

Assuming the 54 cents all-in break down into 9 / 12 / 14 / 19 I get aggregate COGS of:

Modules: 252.3 x 0.54 = $136.2M
Wafers: 25.3 x 0.21 = $5.3M
Cells: 24.3 x 0.35 = $8.5M
Total: $150.0M

This compares with reported COGS of $180.3M, i.e. a $30M gap, which seems quite high to me even when accounting for inventory carrying and inventory write-down. Anybody have any thoughts on this?

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "Klothilde" (Apr 11th 2013, 8:20am)


odyd12

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Thursday, April 11th 2013, 8:10am

YGE guided 15% of Q4 production to be Panda, so costs of Panda must be quite high indeed (incl underutilization) if this is to explain a large chunk of the cost difference.
HI there, I think their objective is full utilization, therefore the impact of 600MW is stopping further improvement below $0.45.
I think you are right, that cost is high, but the ECNs upgrades or new ways of doing it are not in place. Not sure what is happening there, possibly benefit of upgrade does not outweigh capex?

eysteinh

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Thursday, April 11th 2013, 9:14am

Opex costs anyone? :)

(keep in mind this is ALL opex and also only spread out over modules.)
eysteinh has attached the following file:

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "eysteinh" (Apr 11th 2013, 9:19am)


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