SolarPVInvestor Forums

Quoted from "cfeng"

It just seems like I was the only one yesterday who was saying that nothing really has changed and that the 47% tariffs are still hanging out there, they just got moved from June to August. And that can not be good for wall street that does not like uncertainty. Especially if China slaps tariffs on foreign poly, which I think they will. Still way too much uncertainty out there.

To me you are behaving like a 16 year old. You sound like you are in a fight with everybody that is not in your stock and you feel good by bringing constantly negative news about other stocks and the people involved also when the fact show the opposite. Do you really think the things you say on this board will influence the stock price?

I respect everybody choice with regard to the stocks they pick. You make it sound like everybody is crazy not to be in SOL. Looking at the development of SOL share lately (even today) I think your comments are even more difficult to understand.

I advise you to behave more mature on this board; otherwise I think very few people will take your post serious anymore.

"Concerned about effect of EU tariffs"

Well, a S&P analyst is out today expecting higher shipments to EU, because there is a posibility tariffs can rise further from August. So who to believe.

cfeng is right,nothing has changed. Only 2 month of uncertainty. I am out 90% right now.

I think some biggers had plans to take some chinese solar companies down from the large gains lately. Look at CSIQ at the days of earnings; I think more than 30% of the free float was traded with a lot of buying pressure. Normally this stock would be exploding on this volume. Where do all these shares come from to bring the downside pressure that day? It needs a big player to do this.

The problem is that the new tariffs are big surprise to the street. In oder to give strength to the original plan of buying lower and taking them down in an easy way they now put extra pressure on the segment by downgrading them. This is still the crazy thing about the financial market; players with influence can say everything they want to achieve their own goal.

Offcoarse it is crazy to downgrade a stock if a tariff is much lower than anticipated and the timeframe for the chance of completely getting rid of them is shortened. If I was a customer of this bank I would ask them why they did not inform me upfront as it was clear that 47% tariffs would be implemented!

Quoted from "cfeng"

luckygoose,
You must have been absent when all the high fiving was going on yesterday. Seems that reality has no place here when Chi solar pumping is going on. This is not my stock is better than your stock. All of them are Chi solars and all of them suffer when negative sentiment hits. So I suggest you take your own advice.

It is how you look at it. I still think the outcome is a high five. You think with an investment it all needs to happen withing 24 hours. I am not a day trader; my view is longer than that.

The street was planning to take the stocks down considerably after the news. Because of surprising news this is not happening certainly for CSIQ. The stock is now consolidating and the downward momemtum is fading. I think after today we can go up again considerably maybe starting even today at the end of the trading.

Quoted from "pg6solar"

Quoted from "cfeng"

I thought pop said yesterday that the EU decision of 11% was good for Chi solars and were going to the moon. So what happened 24 hours later?

It is clear that no one should be listening to Pop same as no one should be listening to you. You both go off to the extreme, just in opposite directions .

Wow, I see the hatorade is flowing today. Well if you did follow every trade I have done in past couple weeks you would be up 120% So please put the hatorade down.

And listen when GS comes out with 2 big downgrades and market is deep red there is going to be pressure on sector. Analysts upgrades/downgrades mean chit, do the opposite and you will make money.

The News was Great imo with 11% with further negotiations. There is nothing Absolutely nothing to Read Bad News into this. This is a Crock from Goldman. Why JA has few sales to Europe to begin with!

All these Solars have been charging higher prices in the event of tariffs, an average of 15% Higher So WTH is the Bad News! THERE IS NONE.......

Goldman is a thief I've seen his upgrades to Buy with High price targets they go up just so Goldman can sell into strength and after 2 to 3 weeks these stocks sell off by a huge 50%. Zynga was one they did that to. As far as I'm concerned these analysts are liars. Nomura has been the only one that has made correct calls in this sector from what I have seen. I'm talking about going back to 2010. Nomura has a Buy on JASO, TSL and CSIQ. CSIQ was 6.90 it's passed that now, JASO was 9.60 and its way below that now.

How can she the downgrade two companies on the opposite side of the spectrum using the same reason. She said that JA margins are not sustainable. Does Japan has a tariff, JA shipped nothing to Europe.

"We think the margin strength enjoyed by JA Solar during 1Q13, which was driven by its shipments to high-ASP markets like Japan, could be short-lived amid tariff uncertainty. Under our base-case scenario analysis of the current tariff dispute, we believe any potential tariff scheme could limit EU penetration for Chinese cell/module makers and increase pricing competition in other markets, while the cost structure might even hike slightly due to a domestic poly tariff scheme, and this is likely to result in another structural down-cycle for export-focused midstream makers.”


I can see more caution on Trina, but cannot she understand that Trina had 360M in inventory which probably 250M is sitting in warehouses of Antwerp for sales in the second half of 2013. This is not a sustainable business, but it will be good till December. There will be no tariffs and in August they will either revoke or keep this farse to 11%

@Pop,
You have done well keeping your head cool. CSIQ shows good strength in the poor day. More so CSIQ shows signs of immunity from the group's allergy to Europe, and with positive news it will do a lot better than others. On the other hand, I took the news which was very good and removed the risk from TSL. I guess I thought analysts would take the news as good as I did, but other factors are here in play. Good talk on PM yesterday

Quoted from "odyd12"

@Pop,
You have done well keeping your head cool. CSIQ shows good strength in the poor day. More so CSIQ shows signs of immunity from the group's allergy to Europe, and with positive news it will do a lot better than others. On the other hand, I took the news which was very good and removed the risk from TSL. I guess I thought analysts would take the news as good as I did, but other factors are here in play. Good talk on PM yesterday

Thanks odyd for the comments. Your insight on PM, private boards, and general forum has been priceless along with several other very savvy investors here.
For this who are getting hit hard on TSL, JaSO, and SOL today.... Relax don't pay attention to short term moves based on stupid analyst downgrades and outside market pressures. Europe is last hurdle before sector explodes and yesterday was step in right direction. ILOVEPV had a good post yesterday where they said market will digest news for a bit and then next leg up takes effect.
I want everyone that's long to make money here, even the haters...

I have to agree that even with or without europe the current chinese survivors will have times of more profit. It is quite obviousy. BoS cost are comming down and demand is exploding.

Yes What's there to understand is tariffs are set at 11% for 2 months and Chinese Solars are not seeing this as a problem since they all charged higher prices to begin with. I'm with you on that Odyd that in August they will either revoke or keep this farse to 11%.

Yes so JA is covered and will sell more in Europe since they are set at 11%. Listened to the Q&A with Trina and they did a lot of shipping to Europe before June 6'th. I would think before another decision is due in August they'll most likely have their entire year shipments done before the August decision. I just can't see this as being an issue.

So What are the other Factors at play here?

Is it that they were short and now make up fabricated non-truths that don't make sense to cover?

Guy On CNBC just said tremendous upside in solar.He said Great Opportunities there.He recommened TAN ETF

With the USD going down significantly vs the EURO should this have a positive foreign exchange rate this time around? Appears the YEN issue has been eliminated with signing contracts in USD

I expect full reversal of forex at one point in the year. TSL was about number 6 on the list for Japan. Have they said they will sign those in the US currency from this point on? CSIQ was hedging against YEN as soon as a contract was signed. TSL has around 150M in hedged value in currency futures. They lose because they bet big, but at the end they are capable of recovery every year. I sort of count on that $20M to come back.

During the conference call they stated they will be signing in USD in Japan, Although with the guy's horrible english i could have easily mis-interpreted it.

What Happened ,someone knows something

Great volume on TSL in the last hr and a 1/2

someone getting in or a short(s) getting out... Both wise moves IMO