general remark

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ILOVEPV

Intermediate

Posts: 410

Date of registration: Jan 28th 2013

Stock Positions: CSIQ 20% SOL 15% JASO 10% JKS 10% SPWR 10% HSOL 10% TSL 10% (WFR+SCTY+GTAT+FSLR) 15%

Thanks: 22

Monday, May 20th 2013, 12:56pm

general remark

Many midterm investors or swing traders believe that solars will be drifting up slowly or smoothly. It would have been right in a case of a classical supply/demand picture. In a reality these stocks will be moved up (and down) wildly with a clear upside trend if you take a look at them from a "time distance". They can be drifted down 10 days in a row and then regain all the loss within 20 minutes and gain another 15% within next 30 minutes. Only investors and extremely sharp traders will benefit from starting bull PV solar market. CSIQ was 3.5 less than 2 months ago. Now 150% gain is made. 3-4 days of a big daily gain (RSOL, SCTY, TSLA, etc. are just an example) can satisfy your multiyear expectations. The WS won't let you a small chance to participate in a rally. If you are in you a King, if out you will be waiting for another chance for years.

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odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 2,248

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: TSL

Thanks: 295

Monday, May 20th 2013, 1:11pm

Can you do me a favor do not post TSLA here or any other name outside of solar. Any posts out of solar spectrum are not welcomed.

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Scsnospam

Beginner

Posts: 3

Date of registration: May 13th 2013

Stock Positions: TSL

Monday, May 20th 2013, 3:59pm

Odyd12, I am one of the old time yahoo board members. Traded back in 2007/2008 and made some money and lost some too in the end. Haven't done anything since then in solars.

What are your views from a medium to long term investment in the solar space? I think the recent rally will probably correct a bit for a better entry, although timing these can be hazardous.

When do you project first ERs with actual profits?

Finally, is there a trial or sample dataset one can look at before committing to purchase?

Thanks for your efforts in developing this site. Wish you the best.

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odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 2,248

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: TSL

Thanks: 295

Monday, May 20th 2013, 7:13pm

Hi there,
I am not able to tell you what is the best time to invest or what will happen long term. Look at today. I had no idea that JASO will turn 70% today, but I was fairly sure that they will beat estimates.
The amount of negativity, brought a massive explosion, when the company which had negative 4% margins brought in 6% positive. This is 10 base points, huge.
Some things are obvious for us as we track those fundamentally, better than analysts do. For market nobody knew. This is earth shattering.
I see people trying to rationalize what will happen tomorrow. I think we will be selling out, at first. I have never seen a stock which got 70% up and did not dip next day, too much of pressure downward. The problem I see is that we seem to forget this stock is only 1.90 pre-reverse split. So in time this price today is just a beginning, but the time ahead of us has few things , which this market is not able to rationalize without volatility. The EU and profit.
Now everyone who is anyone is looking at this sector asking themselves two questions:
Do I go long or short the sector?
Few people know what we know here. So this is why everything was rising today, anything solar was hot, regardless. Tomorrow people will be looking for undervalued and most promising names to profit. Things must happen for a reason to last, market has to be rational after all.
The group of stocks which are undervalued, imho, in HSOL, CSUN. I gave some reasons about those two.
The promising ones are: CISQ and JKS. First one for what remains solid result thus far. Reversal of provision which brings $30M to the bottom line. Think, if JA had such a provision this Q and had 10% GM, this would be profit Q for them.
Profit solar companies are: FSLR and for now SPWR potential, look at PEs on those. Chinese or not solar has proven its value in global settings. So CSIQ has a strong case to keep going up. JKS has all of the characteristics of profitability based on operating capability. Fundamentally export buyers know Europe is a risk for the company, but average Joe does not see this. JKS can come and say they can profit in Q2. ASP should be as good or better than Q4, due to exports, but sending to Europe in many cases was not better as selling to China. Still the excitement of JKS is attractive.
JA talked up Japan big time. CSIQ and HSOL are huge in this country. JA talked up limited exposure to Europe. CSIQ, HSOL and CSUN are big on this (as explained elsewhere). HSOL GM was 31% negative. They have guided 300MW of modules in Q1.That is more than JA and as much as SOL guided. Can you imagine the improvement?

The profit will come in Q2. I already said it will be CSIQ. CSIQ is best positioned due to projects. These are real things not some MOUs in China. I think this is the most solid long term name. However, I do not know anything about the markets so I would suggest own dd before anyone does anything particularly buying a stock.

Lastly check premium reports there are sample reports for free. There is no trail. It is like downloading a software. When you get it, you have it, even if you send it back

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redsolar

Trainee

Posts: 134

Date of registration: Sep 30th 2012

Stock Positions: CSIQ,SOL

Thanks: 10

Monday, May 20th 2013, 8:40pm

Quoted from "odyd12"

Hi there,
I am not able to tell you what is the best time to invest or what will happen long term. Look at today. I had no idea that JASO will turn 70% today, but I was fairly sure that they will beat estimates.
The amount of negativity, brought a massive explosion, when the company which had negative 4% margins brought in 6% positive. This is 10 base points, huge.
Some things are obvious for us as we track those fundamentally, better than analysts do. For market nobody knew. This is earth shattering.
I see people trying to rationalize what will happen tomorrow. I think we will be selling out, at first. I have never seen a stock which got 70% up and did not dip next day, too much of pressure downward. The problem I see is that we seem to forget this stock is only 1.90 pre-reverse split. So in time this price today is just a beginning, but the time ahead of us has few things , which this market is not able to rationalize without volatility. The EU and profit.
Now everyone who is anyone is looking at this sector asking themselves two questions:
Do I go long or short the sector?
Few people know what we know here. So this is why everything was rising today, anything solar was hot, regardless. Tomorrow people will be looking for undervalued and most promising names to profit. Things must happen for a reason to last, market has to be rational after all.
The group of stocks which are undervalued, imho, in HSOL, CSUN. I gave some reasons about those two.
The promising ones are: CISQ and JKS. First one for what remains solid result thus far. Reversal of provision which brings $30M to the bottom line. Think, if JA had such a provision this Q and had 10% GM, this would be profit Q for them.
Profit solar companies are: FSLR and for now SPWR potential, look at PEs on those. Chinese or not solar has proven its value in global settings. So CSIQ has a strong case to keep going up. JKS has all of the characteristics of profitability based on operating capability. Fundamentally export buyers know Europe is a risk for the company, but average Joe does not see this. JKS can come and say they can profit in Q2. ASP should be as good or better than Q4, due to exports, but sending to Europe in many cases was not better as selling to China. Still the excitement of JKS is attractive.
JA talked up Japan big time. CSIQ and HSOL are huge in this country. JA talked up limited exposure to Europe. CSIQ, HSOL and CSUN are big on this (as explained elsewhere). HSOL GM was 31% negative. They have guided 300MW of modules in Q1.That is more than JA and as much as SOL guided. Can you imagine the improvement?

The profit will come in Q2. I already said it will be CSIQ. CSIQ is best positioned due to projects. These are real things not some MOUs in China. I think this is the most solid long term name. However, I do not know anything about the markets so I would suggest own dd before anyone does anything particularly buying a stock.

Lastly check premium reports there are sample reports for free. There is no trail. It is like downloading a software. When you get it, you have it, even if you send it back

A very balanced view indeed!
JASO strong suit is their massive capacity that is viable to the current market conditions! And yet...they have a lot of fire power to make prudent investments if necessary!