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Q3 SPVI Forum Portfolio- Members' choice

odyd12

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  • "odyd12" started this thread

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21

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 1:54pm

I think "rarely" is understatement. Good luck Odyd. It's getting pounded today but wild moves are expected after a 50% 5 day move. More than likely short term consolidation before next leg up.
Once more I picked it as some of the holdings got me some return in YGE. At the same time I have this feeling I should sell YGE. Probably because I saw 6 EPC in China, and no sign of YGE. (outside of their financial condition, which thought was still managable)

Klothilde

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22

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 1:58pm

@Odyd: Did I spook you with my 36-year calculation?

odyd12

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23

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 2:04pm

LOL. Not really, since I was a buyer yesterday, bought some today.
I am sold out YGE and got my order in CSIQ filled.
Disclosure: I may sell and buy at will but report my actions here mostly after events take place.

cfeng

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24

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 2:45pm

At the same time I have this feeling I should sell YGE.


So are you completely out of YGE?

odyd12

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25

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 3:05pm

I am sold out YGE

yes

Klothilde

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26

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 3:13pm

Thanks god, now we can bash the crap out of YGE without fearing to hurt your feelings.

Did you see those PPE? OhMG !!!! More inflated than a parade float !!!!

Kids, please put everything with sharp edges away. We don't want no one to get hurt !!!

odyd12

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27

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 3:22pm

Klothilde, our bashing of YGE to this point was filtered by objective of not trying to hurt my feelings?

Christ, I hate to see when white gloves would come off. LOL. I like the company but if I believe in profitability as a first step of my thesis of value recognition, holding to YGE is no longer logical. I decided to move to CSIQ, reading my own posts. I could not say anything like that about YGE. I have described financial picture as well. My horizon to is still 10 years, but I have planned to evaluate my position from time to time, I may return to the stock if fundamentals merit it.

littleguyintucson

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28

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 5:12pm

I decided to move to CSIQ, reading my own posts



It took me 2 years of trashing LDK back in 08 and 09 when I realized, I should have listened to myself. You are a wise man for listening to what you deduced. I have made 2 purchases over the last month of CSIQ on the pullback. My avg is around the low 4's. I decided not to buy 1 more at the lows though it was tempting.

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "littleguyintucson" (Apr 30th 2013, 5:19pm)


odyd12

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29

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 5:32pm

If you bought in 4s than you are a lot wiser than I. Care to share why you like in CSIQ, you also hold SOL, I take it?

If anyone holds the stock please update your holdings in your profie page.

cfeng

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30

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 5:48pm

If CSIQ guides for another loss for Q2, CSIQ could again get a similar falling off the cliff after its Q1 ER, as it did for its Q4'12 ER.

ILOVEPV

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31

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 6:26pm

cfeng
not necessarily. All depends on the WS CURRENT sentiment. Majority of Chi10 will report Q1 loss. More important a trend change and guidance. The WS analysts are the best in the world. I'm not talking about people like Gordo - he is a just a tip of an iceberg who uses others job (those real pros. are sitting in a shadow - you do not know them). Gordo (e.g.) is only a public person/servant who plays along with his masters order. If the WS decide to bet on PV solars believe me they will be priced ridiculously high pretty soon.

nanofrogfish_spf

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32

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 7:34pm

god,that is the reason we are down today. :)
lol...my thoughts exactly.

Hey Odyd...next time you decide to buy some CSIQ, give me a heads up first so I can sell...

:)

cfeng

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33

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 7:51pm

ilovepv,
The street will do what it wants to do. I think if Q1 earnings start coming out with more Chinese losses, and stat guiding for more losses for Q2, and with the horrible balance sheets that most of them have, and the 2nd half unknowns from european tariffs, I will not be the least surprised if they sell them again just like they did after Q4 earnings. Of course if anyone surprises with a profit for Q2 or god forbid profit for Q1 and Q2, we may see different direction for some of them.

Pop2mollys

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34

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 11:09pm

Personally I think you made a great move odyd. Might as well be in a solar which will be profitable sooner rather than later....

CSIQ and SOL in a race for profits in Q2.... YGE probably 2014

JulyWebb

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35

Tuesday, April 30th 2013, 11:11pm

ILOVEPV,
That is exactly how I've always felt about Gordo. They are not imo going to not invest in Chi-Solar Stocks. They're building positions now through game playing imo.
cfeng,
You should add a Chinese Solar to your portifolio.
Personally even though I think SPWR is a great Company and I pondered it at $6.00 but like some of us I had investments tied that I didn't want to sell either. I missed the greatest part of that move for a while. This is the bottom in the Chinese Solar stocks. Anytime you have a BK declared like STP and it goes back half way back to where it was before after completely sinking. I think that is a clear signal, Yield but don't Pause to Long Bottom process is in effect

nanofrogfish_spf

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36

Wednesday, May 1st 2013, 5:37am

Personally I think you made a great move odyd. Might as well be in a solar which will be profitable sooner rather than later....

CSIQ and SOL in a race for profits in Q2.... YGE probably 2014
Agree...unless you're a daytrader, whether you paid an extra dime or quarter, won't really matter from a long term investment perspective...especially when that quarter is less than the daily trading range.

Just kidding before Odyd, it's actually a little bit comforting to me to know that someone with your knowledge and insight into the global solar industry also thinks CSIQ will do very well over the next couple years.

littleguyintucson

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37

Wednesday, May 1st 2013, 7:58am

Care to share why you like in CSIQ, you also hold SOL, I take it?


I have made my preferences known several times with reasoning. I like CSIQ because of their pipeline for projects. They are the only C9 company that has well developed projects that is becoming they core of their business. They are not relying on China for their pipeline either. They are following the models of FSLR and SPWR that are the only 2 profitable companies. While near term, profitability may be debated, in the later part of this year should start to see some of the benefits. While projects can bring lumpiness to earnings and revenues due to timings and sales, they have some arrangements that lessens some of the lumpiness that can be had with projects. This should lead to fairly recognizable revenue streams.

And yes, I do own SOL all for the same reasons most here do. The merits of timings of profit and predictions has high volatility. That is to say a mild swing of a penny or 2 or 3 can drive to profits sooner or continue the slow fundamental climb out.

$$$ wise I am equally invested in SOL and CSIQ with 2 others at 50% of the value of them.

explo

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38

Wednesday, May 1st 2013, 8:02am

with 2 others at 50% of the value of them

JASO, TSL? Possibly JKS?

cfeng

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39

Wednesday, May 1st 2013, 8:06am

YGE up 3%, while CSIQ down 4%. It's like WS is reading this thread. :)

Bodhi

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40

Wednesday, May 1st 2013, 8:08am

Three words for CSIQ... CUP and HANDLE

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