CSIQ vs SOL

Paybak66

Trainee

Posts: 112

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 6

Thursday, April 25th 2013, 7:20pm

Cfeng....fair enough.

However, many of us here are thinking FORWARD....to the future....where Chinese solars could perform very well.

Time will tell....and that time is fast approaching.

Go to the top of the page

Pop2mollys

Professional

Posts: 860

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 68

Thursday, April 25th 2013, 11:53pm

Quoted from "odyd12"

I am really curious what Pop got for response on this article. Another very good question is where is that 20% ASP increase coming from? SOL sold modules on average at 0.63, so are we saying they sold outsourced modules at $0.75 in Q1?

I am very cautious about this article. I read some articles in the past, which stated similar claims like one about LDK recently claiming billions of dollars in revenue, profit etc. during general assembly of shareholders in China.

I advise caution, without prejudice

.

Sorry very busy day just getting around to check board. Very interesting SOL has always responded to me within 24 hours of asking a question, but i have yet to hear from them. Once I get a response I will post immediately here. Even though I own a ton of SOL I agree with odyd to be cautious. But "if" true it will not only benefit SOL but probably spark a crazy rally for the whole sector....

Go to the top of the page

MichaelZhao

Trainee

Posts: 78

Date of registration: Feb 5th 2013

Thanks: 8

Friday, April 26th 2013, 7:37am

Quoted from "Pop2mollys"

Sorry very busy day just getting around to check board. Very interesting SOL has always responded to me within 24 hours of asking a question, but i have yet to hear from them. Once I get a response I will post immediately here. Even though I own a ton of SOL I agree with odyd to be cautious. But "if" true it will not only benefit SOL but probably spark a crazy rally for the whole sector...

No response is good news to me. If the news is fake, they may have already replied to you and denied it.

Go to the top of the page

cfeng

Trainee

Posts: 74

Date of registration: Apr 25th 2013

Thanks: 4

Friday, April 26th 2013, 7:49am

IMO the article is fake. I don't see how any of the Chinese solars can even break even let alone produce a net profit. Look at wall street to tell you if its real or not. Cause the stock would have been 3x higher if it was true. Plus there is also the issue of disclosure if it proves to be true, so IMO it's fake.

Go to the top of the page

explo

Professional

Posts: 1,057

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Thanks: 94

Friday, April 26th 2013, 7:54am

Why would stock be 3 times higher? Profitability is around the corner. Breakeven on neutral non-operating lines in Q2, but it is the non-operating lines that determine exactly when the profit headline occurs.

Go to the top of the page

cfeng

Trainee

Posts: 74

Date of registration: Apr 25th 2013

Thanks: 4

Friday, April 26th 2013, 8:07am

IMO it is fake and it is not probable for SOL to post a net profit in Q1, however small. Because If they were to post a net profit in Q1, that would mean a much larger profit in Q2-Q4, as their costs continue to decline. Then for all of 2013 you could be looking at 40-50c ($44mil net profit). At 10PE that's $4-$5. At 1.60x3 that's 4.8. Wall street trades ahead, and certainly they are not trading ahead SOL like they are trading FSLR. So IMO the article is fake.

Go to the top of the page

MichaelZhao

Trainee

Posts: 78

Date of registration: Feb 5th 2013

Thanks: 8

Friday, April 26th 2013, 8:29am

Quoted from "cfeng"

IMO it is fake and it is not probable for SOL to post a net profit in Q1, however small. Because If they were to post a net profit in Q1, that would mean a much larger profit in Q2-Q4, as their costs continue to decline. Then for all of 2013 you could be looking at 40-50c ($44mil net profit). At 10PE that's $4-$5. At 1.60x3 that's 4.8. Wall street trades ahead, and certainly they are not trading ahead SOL like they are trading FSLR. So IMO the article is fake.

I think it is true (about 60% confidence), because the orginal news is from a local goverment website, and get deleted now.

But you got your point. Anyway, we will know it is fake or not in weeks.

Go to the top of the page

cfeng

Trainee

Posts: 74

Date of registration: Apr 25th 2013

Thanks: 4

Friday, April 26th 2013, 9:52am

The article is still there. It did not get deleted.
http://www.solarzoom.com/article-28054-1.html

Go to the top of the page

MichaelZhao

Trainee

Posts: 78

Date of registration: Feb 5th 2013

Thanks: 8

Friday, April 26th 2013, 10:04am

Quoted from "cfeng"

The article is still there. It did not get deleted.
http://www.solarzoom.com/article-28054-1.html

The original is from 浙江商务之窗 which at

http://zhejiang.mofcom.gov.cn/article/sj…400096225.shtml

get deleted.

Go to the top of the page

nanofrogfish_spf

Intermediate

Posts: 229

Date of registration: Nov 8th 2012

Thanks: 21

Friday, April 26th 2013, 12:01pm

Quoted from "MichaelZhao"

So, now I am toward SOL as my #1 pick, what's your thought guys?

I think you got your answer today...

Go to the top of the page

MichaelZhao

Trainee

Posts: 78

Date of registration: Feb 5th 2013

Thanks: 8

Friday, April 26th 2013, 12:12pm

Quoted from "nanofrogfish_spf"

Quoted from "MichaelZhao" So, now I am toward SOL as my #1 pick, what's your thought guys? I think you got your answer today...

Thx nano. Let's review this in the end of June.

Go to the top of the page

Pop2mollys

Professional

Posts: 860

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 68

Friday, April 26th 2013, 12:42pm

It's been several days and they haven't gotten back to my email. This is a first. I'm thinking they wanted to save this for CC in couple weeks. I have asked things before which if u true they have denied within 24 hours. They didn't have to schedule earnings as early as they did.... I think they are saving this news to release then, hence the silence. JMHO

Go to the top of the page

nanofrogfish_spf

Intermediate

Posts: 229

Date of registration: Nov 8th 2012

Thanks: 21

Friday, April 26th 2013, 1:01pm

Quoted from "MichaelZhao"

Thx nano. Let's review this in the end of June.

Thanks MZ...

SOL will have it's day, and it might not be too far off.

Go to the top of the page

N0mistakes

Beginner

Posts: 39

Date of registration: Feb 12th 2013

Thanks: 6

Friday, April 26th 2013, 1:06pm

Nano - I would not judge CSIQ on one up day. All it takes is one fund buying in and any of the Chinese Solar's will pop on that day. There is no reason why SOL couldn't be up just as much on Monday and no reason why CSIQ could not be down on Monday as much as it is up.

I prefer to look at performance at the end of the year instead of quarter by quarter.

I also fail to see why we are having yet another CSIQ vs. SOL thread. (Board reference corrected from original post)

Go to the top of the page

nanofrogfish_spf

Intermediate

Posts: 229

Date of registration: Nov 8th 2012

Thanks: 21

Friday, April 26th 2013, 1:16pm

Quoted from "N0mistakes"

Nano - I would not judge CSIQ on one up day.

It's been more than just one up day...it's been 7 in a row now, with an almost 50% increase in price, on increasing, very heavy volume. And just blew past its 52-week high, which it hit earlier this year.

It's certainly more than a 1-day blip on the radar screen...for the last year it would start selling off 2-3 weeks before earnings. Maybe it's earnings, maybe it's something else. But someone wants in pretty bad right now.

And CSIQ has barely made a peep this quarter about anything...very unusual for them.

Somethings up IMO, and someone knows about it.

Go to the top of the page

cfeng

Trainee

Posts: 74

Date of registration: Apr 25th 2013

Thanks: 4

Friday, April 26th 2013, 2:03pm

Way too much CSIQ pumping going on, and on multiple threads, which is usually a contrarian indicator. Isn't CSIQ expected to post a big loss for Q1 and Q2? Looking at estimates I see a loss of 76c for Q1 and a loss of 28c for Q2. If those come to be, it will mean that CSIQ will have to post better than $1.04 EPS for Q3+Q4 just to break even. However technicals also show a cup and handle, so who knows.

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "cfeng" (Apr 26th 2013, 2:09pm)

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 1,426

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Thanks: 187

Friday, April 26th 2013, 2:24pm

cfeng, this thread is about stock market movement. I think 12% for CSIQ is a move worth noting. Now comment about that as pumping is a bit off mark, when trying to quote analysts' estimates in support. We gather here to dispute analysts' BS. I also noted that initially you have left the question of losses in an open state and provided the answer after modification. I thank you for doing so as the other way is not something we like to see on this forum

welcome to the board.

Go to the top of the page

N0mistakes

Beginner

Posts: 39

Date of registration: Feb 12th 2013

Thanks: 6

Friday, April 26th 2013, 2:46pm

Cfeng - almost every post in this thread is on SOL. The initial post said switch to SOL from CSIQ. Where is the pumping?

Otherwise I agree that all the solar companies have to show that they can execute this year,

Go to the top of the page

cfeng

Trainee

Posts: 74

Date of registration: Apr 25th 2013

Thanks: 4

Friday, April 26th 2013, 2:48pm

Quoted from "odyd12"

welcome to the board.

Thanks. I also saw pumping on a non-trading thread that's why I said multiple threads. JKS was also up 13% but I don't see any pumping for JKS. In fact the chart of JKS resembles CSIQ chart.
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=CSIQ&…en-US&region=US