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Pop2mollys

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Thursday, March 28th 2013, 11:15pm

Predicting 3000GW by 2050

Will reach a point of 100GW annual run rate and overcapacity situation is temporary...


Interesting...

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/t…WiO7uKOZIXN10qg

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Friday, March 29th 2013, 7:48am

That is too slow growth. From 30GW to 100GW in 35 years is nothing to cheer about. I would expect to hit 50GW in 2015.

greensolar

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Friday, March 29th 2013, 7:58am

I'm hoping to see 50Gw this year...or coming close

spiritcraft

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Friday, March 29th 2013, 8:26am

If BOS costs decline you could see 100GW per year in the Southwest USA relatively soon.

odyd12

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Friday, March 29th 2013, 8:49am

50GW this year will mean uplift in ASP to a point of short of supply. I cannot see this to be the case.

Pop2mollys

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Friday, March 29th 2013, 11:20am

I think market gets a good surprise when total installs ar 40Gw plus which should cause a nice pop in ASP 2H of year. This is how I see it ...

1. China - 10GW+. Updated subsidies to be release next week and are 15-30% higher than previously expected

2. Japan 11GW+. Current albeit short run rate puts them at 13GW+

3. US - 5-6GW+ easily hit this mark

4. India + Greece + Australia. 3 + 3+ 2

=34 GW. Without even including Europe and all other emerging markets combined

chrisceeaustin

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Friday, March 29th 2013, 7:18pm

Excuse my ignorance. How do you get 11 GW in Japan?

odyd12

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Friday, March 29th 2013, 7:44pm

I have following expectations for 2013, these are estimates:I see very good possibility for around 35GW, I see Japan to be in area of 4 to 5GW.
Chinese companies will ship around 26GW in shipments and 9GW between Japan, Europe and other operators (US, Taiwan, Korea, ROW).
In 2012 around 11.5GW was shipped by 10 US-listed companies (Daqo is excluded).
Consider if they shipped 15GW out of the current 18GW capacity? That is 83% utilization level.
This will not be distributed equally of course but this is what I see.
It is nice to see data for this year supporting this.

Paybak66

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Friday, March 29th 2013, 8:03pm

Yes, well put. As you have often pointed out, Odyd, its the FACTUAL DATA....not opinion or emotion...that are the catalyst to drive this sector hiigher.

That being said...it seems the tide of sentiment toward the sector is swinging positive again.

The bottom may be upon us....

ILOVEPV

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Friday, March 29th 2013, 10:29pm

The WORLD generated power NOW is in the order of 5 TW. Having 3000GW i.e. 3TW means that 3/5th of world electrical power comes from Sun. The info is subject to no need in increase of power consumption (that is not a case). I'm not taking into consideration that SUN shines say only 12 hours/day. On the other hand a modest assessment of a world power consumption increase rate is 4% annually. I think that as soon as electrical transportation becomes a reality this rate will start growing much faster, probably to 8% annually. Let's say 6%. What does it mean. It means we will need to 2050 x5 fold more generated power than today i.e. 25TW. From this point of view 3TW looks as 8% is too low. Probably we can expect 7-8TW. Let's calculate a %% rate of annual increase needed to reach 8TW. Let's ignore all installed and start from today 2013 - 40GW, 2050 -8,000Gw. A simple calculation tells we need only 21.6% annual installation increase to fulfill the above-mentioned task.

odyd12

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Saturday, March 30th 2013, 1:34am

According to this presentation
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/…/factsheets.pdf

Global power generation is about 5,890GW in 2012. By the 2035, this number will double to some 12TW.
Out of that if we estimate 24% be solar, this means about 2,827GW of power generation. Probably by 2024 world would start to install in area of 100GW per year with the growth of 10% per year the number in 2035 will reach 290GW/y. In 2035, the world prices of energy will be at least 30% higher in locations like Japan, but In China and the US around is predicted at low 15%. Every year after 2040, at least 100GW would be required to maintain infrastructure. PV and wind does not affect water levels as a resource. Fossil fuels and NG do. Another reason why PV is going to be more and more the choice, due to water disappearing.
This is what is called world efficient energy concept.
In another study published in 2010 IEA predicted by the 2050, there will be at least 3000GW
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepubl…/pv_roadmap.pdf

Industry scenarios are hitting 2,000GW by 2030 so I picked concept of one between
If to believe 60GW capacity today, by 2017 this capacity will be running at 87%, my figures are closer to 40GW bankable, by 2014 expansions are required to cover for the deficit.

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chrisceeaustin

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Saturday, March 30th 2013, 8:13am

If to believe 60GW capacity today, by 2017 this capacity will be running at 87%, my figures are closer to 40GW bankable, by 2014 expansions are required to cover for the deficit.

This is the type of info that we need. How much of the overcapacity is actually marketable, competitive?

ILOVEPV

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Saturday, March 30th 2013, 8:19am

ODYD.
I made an assessment using my memory, not factual digits (actually not too big difference). Thanks for more exact digits.
You are saying "By the 2035, this number will double to some 12TW".
It is right in a current consuming structure. If and when this structure changes (electrical transportation can become a major consumer apart from today) we will need different much higher digits. A small example. To satisfy all needs in hydro in Toronto you need 3.5Gw power generation (24 hours). If your transfer 50% of ONLY private vehicles to electrical engines you will need 6 GW more on a top of current 3.5 Gw. Does it real to have 50% of all vehicles electrical in 22 years? Absolutely. What put a certain plug on this development today is a small capacity and expensive storage. In several years a storage will be tripled at least (we already have such batteries in laboratory) while a price will be the same or less.

odyd12

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Saturday, March 30th 2013, 8:45am

Hi ILOVE,
I think what we people living in Western World forget about people not having electricity, clean water etc.
The largest growth of demand will come from places like India, no electricity to many percentages of the population. It is amazing how much needs are there in Africa, Asia. Look what coal does to China.
Chinese interest in solar is not benevolence, they are chocking on smog, but they struggle with modern grid. So they built a carriage before horse, and they get the licks for it.
Think of oil, how many wars of this last century and currently are thought for access to it. How invasive to environment is fracking and oil sands extraction. How costly is to get oil and it will be even more. The moral here is that energy is power, but also a domination. This is why politicians do not like "Chinese" association with solar energy, nor less than how they did not like oil and gad reserves of Soviet Union. Nobody says it but it s a competition for global domination.

The caveat here is they need to understand Chinese produce means and they do not own the source. This requires next level of comprehension, which many politicians refuse to have.

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ILOVEPV

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Saturday, March 30th 2013, 4:33pm

very fruitful discussion. I "know" other digits of the next 5 year PV solar expansion. A prediction was made behind a closed door by a group of analysts.
2013 37-41GW (39 average)
2014 46-52GW (49)
2015 63-67GW (65)
2016 76-82GW (79)
2017 94-102GW (97)
It looks like a more or less 22-25%+ steady growth.

Pop2mollys

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Saturday, March 30th 2013, 4:40pm

Li from SOL said in 5 years need 50% growth for solars too see profits. That would be 45GW which is 50% growth from the 30gw we saw last year. So according to your numbers even by 2017 we would see 200%+ growth so solars would be printing money

ILOVEPV

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Saturday, March 30th 2013, 4:57pm

if we consider a current capacity as 65-70GW the digits I posted above only mean that we need almost 3 years more to reach a profitability for the industry as a whole (subject to zero capacity growth that obviously is not a case). PV industry is a future source of world electrical energy generation but we can not expect this business will be highly profitable (unless new ideas and new technologies will put certain companies ahead of others).

chrisceeaustin

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Saturday, March 30th 2013, 9:20pm

ILOVEPV,

How much of the oversupply is actually sellable, do you think? Many of the panels will have to be nearly given away, right?

eysteinh

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Sunday, March 31st 2013, 3:47am

I really belive a lot of the capacity counted is not there. I think world now has around 40gw capacity. Some of it with high cost structure too. And yes this includes thin film,cigs etc.

greensolar

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Sunday, March 31st 2013, 4:05am

I completely agree with you, I believe alot of capacity has closed down and what had happened was a huge shift of inventory which has suppressed prices.We have room for panels to go up a few cent's but we are still at a inflection point where solar at most part is at grid parity without subsidies.
If we can see all solar's starting to make a profit or become cash flow positive these companies can work on the next leg of improving efficiency on panels and increase wattage and production. I can see a senario where in 5 years we have 350-400watt panels and $15kg poly and everyone is profitable. I say margins are going to be thin next couple of years but they don't have to be in the future unless pv solar sell's well below grid parity.

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