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Klothilde

Unregistered

101

Monday, February 11th 2013, 2:39pm

Quoted from "odyd12"

I do not know the data behind private companies, and the ones I know I speak about. I thought you asked about Chinese companies, so the point about FS is mute. Hanergy is in thin film, they bought MiaSole and Solibro, but I do not have information on the tech and practical application. Klothilde, I guess it would not hurt, when someone does this research they can update all of us, maybe it will be you? I just do not have enough hours in day to keep up, so I look at the most obvious ones.

Well wouldn't it be horrible to put all the money into c-Si and then watch how a thin-film company undercuts costs and prices by 30% or more? For instance Hanergy targets 50 cent per watt within 12 months and then wants to go down to 33 cents. http://news.yahoo.com/chinese-buyer-says…0--finance.html

Leapfrogging is a part of life. It happened with vacuum tubes and transistors and it can happen with PV as well.

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odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 2,727

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: TSL, SOL, CSIQ

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102

Wednesday, February 20th 2013, 8:34pm

ECN interview got published by the Solarzoom Magazine
page 30 of the link
http://magazine.solarzoom.com/201302/index.html

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odyd12

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Posts: 2,727

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: TSL, SOL, CSIQ

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103

Monday, February 25th 2013, 7:20am

Solarzoom report for last week.
Not that exciting. He quoted prices for modules and seems that t-1s dropped while t-2s are up.
https://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/451…china-report-26

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odyd12

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Posts: 2,727

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

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104

Friday, March 1st 2013, 8:17am

Article on FS
https://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/456…ult-times-ahead

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odyd12

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Posts: 2,727

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

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105

Wednesday, March 6th 2013, 7:34am

Solarzoom Report 27

Last week China's pricing and trading
https://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/457…china-report-27

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odyd12

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Posts: 2,727

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

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106

Friday, March 8th 2013, 7:27am

Yingli article,
https://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/458…emain-uncertain

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odyd12

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Posts: 2,727

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: TSL, SOL, CSIQ

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107

Friday, March 15th 2013, 6:08am

Solarzoom market report
https://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/460…china-report-28

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odyd12

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108

Saturday, March 16th 2013, 12:55pm

ReneSola and Canadian in one place
https://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/461…solar-investors

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odyd12

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Posts: 2,727

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: TSL, SOL, CSIQ

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109

Thursday, March 21st 2013, 7:28pm

I got a Solarzoom report for last week. Unfortunately looks like there is a pressure on prices and shipments of poly, wafers and cells are becoming insignificant again. There are some price decreases for wafers and modules from t-2s.
European module volumes are redirected to domestic market in fear of tariffs, crushing little guys apparently, which I suspect will liquidate inventory again and cause price drops.
Report should be up in the morning.

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Pop2mollys

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110

Thursday, March 21st 2013, 7:38pm

Quoted from "odyd12"

I got a Solarzoom report for last week. Unfortunately looks like there is a pressure on prices and shipments of poly, wafers and cells are becoming insignificant again. There are some price decreases for wafers and modules from t-2s.
European module volumes are redirected to domestic market in fear of tariffs, crushing little guys apparently, which I suspect will liquidate inventory again and cause price drops.
Report should be up in the morning.

How does that report compare to pvinsights or energy trend Which came out wednesday morning already for last week? Prices we slightly up across the board on those.

Thanks....

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Paybak66

Intermediate

Posts: 183

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Stock Positions: CSIQ

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111

Thursday, March 21st 2013, 8:00pm

Quoted from "odyd12"

I got a Solarzoom report for last week. Unfortunately looks like there is a pressure on prices and shipments of poly, wafers and cells are becoming insignificant again. There are some price decreases for wafers and modules from t-2s.
European module volumes are redirected to domestic market in fear of tariffs, crushing little guys apparently, which I suspect will liquidate inventory again and cause price drops.
Report should be up in the morning.

Speaking of EU tariffs, what is the approx timetable on that decision? Need to keep a VERY close eye on that, for trading purposes.

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Klothilde

Unregistered

112

Friday, March 22nd 2013, 12:03am

@Odyd: I just went over your ECN interview as well over your older article on the endangered Pandas. I understand that according to ECN an n-type mono cell shouldn't cost more than a p-type mono cell. Yet we know YGE had a significant cost gap that they were working on. What is your thinking regarding the current Panda costs? What cost gap do you think they currently have relative to p-type mono and to p-type multi?

Reason I'm asking is I want to compare cost effectiveness between n-type mono and improved p-type mono (e.g. JASO).

Thanks for any info or speculation.

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explo

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Posts: 1,845

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Stock Positions: SOL, JASO, JKS

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113

Friday, March 22nd 2013, 12:17am

Klothilde, odyd and I have some old discussion threads on the mono vs multi costs, some of them in reference to the ECN article. Biggest point is a cost difference between CZ and DSS and how DSS on p-type is getting very close to enable the same conversion efficiency. Either by monocasting or more preferably controlling grain properties.

Advantage with n-type is potential for higher conversion efficiencies. See SPWR and their Chinese wafer supplier.

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Klothilde

Unregistered

114

Friday, March 22nd 2013, 1:11am

Quoted from "explo"

Klothilde, odyd and I have some old discussion threads on the mono vs multi costs, some of them in reference to the ECN article. Biggest point is a cost difference between CZ and DSS and how DSS on p-type is getting very close to enable the same conversion efficiency. Either by monocasting or more preferably controlling grain properties.

Advantage with n-type is potential for higher conversion efficiencies. See SPWR and their Chinese wafer supplier.

Great. I'll go back and revisit some of your discussions. If you know off the top where to look and can point me there that would be great.

I would agree that it is more cost effective to produce a 255 W module via DSS, but for higher efficiency I think you necessarily need to switch to mono. Reason is I think 260 W for a standard multi module is already darn close to the conversion records for the technology. I would be surprised if SOL manages to crank out significant numbers of 260s

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odyd12

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115

Friday, March 22nd 2013, 6:28am

Hi all the report can be found here
https://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/463…china-report-29

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odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 2,727

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: TSL, SOL, CSIQ

Thanks: 436

116

Monday, March 25th 2013, 8:45pm

Hi all, I got Solarzoom update for publication tomorrow.
According to it, poly medium and small manufacturers who attempted to open poly production are basically shutting down. Big guys are producing to orders made by downstream buyers in stable conditions. Wafer makers are stable (large ones). Solar cells mainly used by own production lines by big makers. Small and medium guys are shutting down. If someone is producing it, it is on low levels. Modules stagnant, big guys are dropping volume domestically (same as week prior). Prices are holding for now. Two policy conferences took place but did not help the market. I sense (my observation/suggestion) that a bit of dejection is setting in as it seems that government is turning back on small and medium guys. Banks are getting unsympathetic, which threatens liquidity. I think this condition is spilling into view on US solars.

It seems biggest hit today, stocks with convertible bonds this year (JASO May and TSL July) and YGE with $600M medium note due in 2015. I think market sentiment is no money for everyone now, as it used to be money for all before.

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solarfun

Trainee

Posts: 88

Date of registration: Oct 10th 2012

Stock Positions: CSIQ, TSL

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117

Tuesday, March 26th 2013, 12:05am

But that's only 89 millions for TSL (128 millions for JASO). I don't think it is a big deal.

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Klothilde

Unregistered

118

Tuesday, March 26th 2013, 1:47am

Stagnant prices - banks getting unsympathetic - PV companies shutting down?

If you ask me very good news. If prices and margins were to increase sharply now it would encourage many quasi-bankrupt companies to keep on trying instead of shutting down for good. Imho the game of the hour is hanging in there at neutral cash flow and smile while flies around you drop dead. The reward will come towards the end of the year when the huge markets US, JP, China pick up steam and the flies are no longer around to depress prices.

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odyd12

nanofrogfish_spf

Intermediate

Posts: 416

Date of registration: Nov 8th 2012

Stock Positions: CSIQ

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119

Tuesday, March 26th 2013, 5:07am

Quoted from "Klothilde"

If you ask me very good news. If prices and margins were to increase sharply now it would encourage many quasi-bankrupt companies to keep on trying instead of shutting down for good.

I agree 100% with your entire statement Kloth...this is why prices are not going to rise significantly at any point in the supply chain, at least until this situation plays out its full course...and the big-boys know this also. And by then it will be the cost reductions that return companies to profitability, not spiking prices...

You can post some good stuff, when you leave the horrible reckless snowflakes in the desert out of it...