SolarPVInvestor Forums

The whole industry outlook is very uncertain with all the unknowns due to the trade war. In my view SOL could benefit from a trade war. In my projections I assume no tariffs though and feel fairly comfortable that in case of a China tariff on poly and EU tariffs on modules and components SOL will not be negatively impacted (ASP will rise more than the cost for SOL to supply its products to customers) and in the interim state of virtual tariffs (since you have to assume worst case retroactive effects) they are ahead to supply tariff risk free products to EU and have internal poly (afte ramping) in case poly price rise in anticipation of tariffs.

So with a conservative assumption that ASP settles at 65 cents for modules and 25 cents for wafers in the second half of 2013, then SOL could be at an EPS of 15 cents by then or a annual EPS run-rate of 60 cents. From that level the PPS will be mainly decided by whether the market thinks ASP will decline in 2014 (in which case profit will be gone again) or rise (in which case EPS will grow quickly). I don't speculate much about these things, since it is impossible to be accurate with all the moving parts. Instead I look at who will lose least or profit most in any given scenario and that is SOL for me looking at module business (profitable already at 65 cents ASP for example). CSIQ that has a good project pipeline has more certain group profits in 2013 and 2014, but might have less certain module business profitability than SOL in the long-term in my view, but again that's speculations, since CSIQ could use the profits from projects coming 2-3 years to transform itself to a more long-term balance module business position.

According to pv magazine, CASM is whining again that Chinese Solars are getting around tariffs and they are asking for stronger enforcement and may attempt to have other solar components tariffed as well. I hope sol will not be effected but I never thought the tariffs would happen in the first place.

Here is some clarity for you...

http://ir.renesola.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=2…icle&id=1745582

I agree about the speculative part, ASPs are just way to hard to predict.
Still, and taking your (very reasonable IMHO) "best guess" estimates, if they were more or less to stabilize at these levels, a PE of 10-20 should justify a stock price of 6-12$ (assuming you refer to ADRs rather than simple shares), or am I getting something wrong?

Quoted from "explo"

So with a conservative assumption that ASP settles at 65 cents for modules and 25 cents for wafers in the second half of 2013, then SOL could be at an EPS of 15 cents by then or a annual EPS run-rate of 60 cents. From that level the PPS will be mainly decided by whether the market thinks ASP will decline in 2014 (in which case profit will be gone again) or rise (in which case EPS will grow quickly).

You will get PE of 6-max8 for commodity manufacturer.

Quoted from "Boss"

You will get PE of 6-max8 for commodity manufacturer.

Quoted from "Boss"

You will get PE of 6-max8 for commodity manufacturer.

Quoted from "Boss"

You will get PE of 6-max8 for commodity manufacturer.

Boss, Do you remember what the pe high was in 2010? BTW we should keep in mind anything can change.

It looks as though I over quoted here a bit.

Quoted from "JulyWebb"

Boss, Do you remember what the pe high was in 2010? BTW we should keep in mind anything can change

ReneSola based on a forward looking PE was an estimated 6.79 PE Ratio based on 2010 yearly earnings and their peak stock price. This was at their Peak period of earning durring Q3.

ReneSola Q4 year end report earned $1.93 in 2010.
Their quarterly profit was 0.14 ,0.35, 0.70, 0.45,

They started at $5.76
Their Peak price was $13.10 in October time period
The year close was $8.74

That was a different year, in a different time with different balance sheets and different industry conditions and earnings powers.

That is what I post PE 6- 8 max.


ReneSola based on a forward looking PE was an estimated 6.79 PE Ratio based on 2010 yearly earnings and their peak stock price. This was at their Peak period of earning durring Q3.

Thanks Boss

Of course the environment is forever changing and a time will likely come when Solar becomes mainstay and these PE levels will act accordingly. Jonathan Pickering of JA Solar refers to Solar in the beginning stages like the Computer Revolution was before it became what it is as we know it now.
A reason why most of us are invested here or stay invested. Soon if not beginning now the ups & downs in this industry will be almost nonexistent. At least that's what I think.

I see it has been that way but that doesn't mean it stays that way which I don't believe it does.
So you really think this will forever be peaks and valleys, I don't! Of course I could be wrong but I don't think so.
Solar hasn't slowed down in its growth (just a period of over saturation). We are going thru a period where everyone and their brother jumped in to make money in this industry causing a big panic to lower ASP's within the competition to continue existence. Our inherent need to adopt solar or some other form of renewable energy doesn't go away. What happens now will be those with recognizable quality brands and financial backing remain. Warranty concerns is a big factor when a homeowner or a developer makes a sizeable investment. The junk solar companies are dying or they are nearly dead. They can't compete with quality, Brand. warranty or R&D. A few Solar stay to become major players in this industry and the others die. Solars growth continues to increase. I don't see a slow down for a while and in fact in the next few years Solar could be bigger than we've imagined. It's catching on & we far from satuaration! Hasn't Solar grown over the last 10 years YOY?

.

Demand does not have to exceed supply and if it does ASP will go parabolic. If we hit 35GW ASP will rise and solars will soar. If it looks like we can hit 40GW in 2013 you will definitely see big big moves up in top 5 solars.

We are getting to a very interesting threshold point were Capacity is getting taken offline weekly while demand seems to be surging ahead of almost all analysts expectations, the new solar bull market could come in a blink of an eye.....

i like this discussion but right now it is just good dreams. This industry is exploding. When you start a car your speed is increasing gradually. Doubling from 5km/hour (5GW) means only 10km/hour (10GW) while doubling from 35 is already 70 i.e. you adding 35 (x7 times compare to previous 5 digit). You can easily double your capacity from 5 to 10Gw adding 5. Try to add 35. We are in initial stages of a big multiyear boom in new energy source that can become dominating in 10-15 years. Could you imagine a scale of internet expansion and its influence 15 years ago? I doubt. Just think about only 1 aspect - roof tops. If you occupy with solar panels only 50% of roofs in a big city such as Toronto, New York or LA you cover all needs in electrical power for the whole city. Solar PV can become a leading locomotive that help to drug a stagnant economy from the hole and improve an unemployment rate. As always picking up right companies is a key. As for P/E take a look at P/E for SINA, BIDU and many other Chinese companies. When the WS decides that this sector is a prosperous future the sky is only a limit. As always the WS will bake in a share price all future benefits. Do not be too surprised if you find TSL or SPWR or CSIQ or SOL in $100 range in 2-3 years. Opportunity of the life is investing in solar PV now, same as investing in early 90s in DELL, YHOO, MSFT, etc.

Former CEO Peng Fang of JA Solar said in an interview in 2012 Oversupply/Consolidation will hit the industry that is what we have now. Leaving Shortages in 2014-2015. In the Q&A they expect to have positive margins for the 1'st Qtr. that said by Xie Jian. So gradgually getting better.

Those that are around 2014-2015 will enjoy another boom only likely much bigger than before with fewer players. Like the Oil Industry there has been Boom & Bust Years. In Midland, Tx. the wealthiest financial Institution in the US closed its doors. Got to see a lot of people pull cash out.

Demand / Capacity ratio I believe is tightening faster than anyone on street realizes. In last couple months for example both STP and LDK module capacity has shrunk. I'm guessing ATLEAST 3GW got taken offline between those 2. Then add up all capacity of smaller companies which have gone BK over past 6 months,

So let's just take the 3GW figure + the underestimated demand from just one country... Japan. Many are predicting Japan to do 3-4 GW in 2013. BNEF who has access to inside info just raised their target for Japan from 6-9.4 GW....

If we get an extra 6GW from Japan and over 3GW taken offline that's a 9GW swing in a blink of an eye. This happens and there will be shortage of high end modules from tier 1's and a fast and furious rally