disdaniel

disdaniel's Activity

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   disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    4 August

   Daqo expanding production capacity 40% by end of 2016...not sure if this is "new" news...
   http://www.pv-tech.org/news/daqo_expanding_xinjiang_polysilicon_plant_to_18000mt
   

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   disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    3 August

   That Bloomberg article is so full of errors, it is embarrassing. 
   It says 22 percent of JKS is short (second sentence), and 27 percent of JKS is short (1st line, second to last paragraph).  It can't be both.
   It says 15% of JKS outstanding shares was short (= to 4.65M) as of June 30--when NASDAQ says there were 3.2M short or about 10%.
   By mid-july JKS short interest increased to 3.7M or ~12% of outstanding. (per Nasdaq)
   According to the article then, between July 15 and July 21 JKS short interest increased by another 3.1M (to 6.8M for 22%) or 4.7M (to 8.4M for 27%) when under 3M total shares traded in that time frame (934k on 7/16, 933k on 7/17, 665k on 7/20, and 446k on 7/21) and in this period the stock price inched up 2-3%.
   IMO the author is just making crap up
   

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   disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    25 July

   SUNE was absurdly overvalued and throwing money/stock to buy VSLR at 50x revenue showed even management felt valuation was ridiculous.  Unfortunately I was wrong footed by the trading on Monday, and for the first time in 2-3 months had/own no puts on SUNE *tears hair*.  Surprised how quickly SUNE pulled back, but the pullback was imo inevitable.
   

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   disdaniel added a post in a topic JinkoSolar (JKS)    25 July

   Slightly OT
   Does anyone have a good/simple model for a Chinese module cost stack?
   from module manufacturers view point, want to know
   a) poly price/w  (is ~1% of poly price/kg a useful estimate still? ~15-16cents/w?)
   b) cell cost/w  (looks like 30-31cents per pv insight--is any margin built into that number?)
   c) module cost/w (alternately what is non-cell cost/w and I can add to b)--I think this is 48 cents +/- a couple cents?)
   d) module price (looks like 55cent/w +/- few cents)
    
   Thanks, just breaking down the question here has helped me a bit, would like to know if my (...) above are substantially or directionally off
   

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   disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    24 July

   Not exactly China or India, but France is doubling the amount of solar it will buy...
   "The French government has doubled the size of a tender for 100-250kW solar systems from 120MW to 240MW."
   http://www.pv-tech.org/news/france_doubles_mid_sized_solar_tender_to_240mw
   

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   disdaniel added a post in a topic JinkoSolar (JKS)    24 July

   I think it is a big and growing concern as JKS adds more and more MW in China, that is largely embedded in the low PE JKS receives.
   

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   disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    20 July

   Honestly the Vivant acquisition worries me...when companies are being valued at 50 times revenues (VSLR rev = $9.7M/qtr) I start to get queasy about the sector
   

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   disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    13 July

   This is probably only of "local" interest, but IL has a state RPS with a carve-out for solar which has been largely ignored.  Last year the utilities got a kick in the butt from the legislature to get on with it.
    
   Based on a first procurement ($5M) IL is paying ~$100 for SRECs (solar REC = 1Mwh of solar) from mid size solar (25kw-500kw) and over $160 for SRECs from small DG <25kw.  There will be two additional procurements ($25M) in the coming year which include larger size systems (up to 2MW).
    
   There could finally be a solar boom in IL as those prices (which as I understand it are per year for 5 years) SRECs (icing on any solar cake) work out to being worth 20%-30% of the install cost.
    
   http://ipa-energyrfp.com/download/supplemental_pv_spring_2015/June%202015%20Supplemental%20Photovoltaic%20RFP%20Results.pdf
   

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   disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    10 July

   Do chinese manufacturers sell modules in the US before tariffs or after tariffs?
   

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    disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    9 July

    
    
     
    To the extent anyone loses as a result of tariff reduction, I think FSLR does.  OTOH we are talking a few percent change +/-, so I don't think tariff rates are driving stock prices.
    

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    disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    9 July

    I took the plunge on Tuesday (when I noted to board I was buying with both hands). got 20 JASO July $7 calls for $0.35, also picked up 40 Aug $8 calls for $0.25.    Now I'm hoping for $8 by end of next week and maybe $9 by mid Aug.
     
    I keep thinking that SUNE could snap up JASO with its overvalued stock and lock-in a decade of high quality panel production for peanuts...
    

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    disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    9 July

    
    
     
    Just another +$2 and it will be near buyout price...
    

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    disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    9 July

    
    
    I think it is 20.9% for everyone (that doesn't have a specific number) at least that is how I read it.
    

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    disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    9 July

    Yeah I think the earlier reports are getting 2014 rates (called "new") confused with the old rates (2012) which are getting reset lower as we had hoped/expected.
    

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    disdaniel added a post in a topic Solar News    7 July

    JASO's dive puts a stake through the heart of the "rational investor" theory of markets
    

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