Larry nice post on exact conext sol stated. So from their own words, Q1 is flat to slightly down. That could mean a penny or 2 lower for modules and wafers stable? In conext the increase of $0.02 to $0.03 higher, that could be interpreted as being higher off the Q1 number and not necesarilly off the Q4 number. That would basically put the ASP back at $0.64 or $0.65 depending on items right?
OMG! SOL smashes estimates and guides higher
Started By Guest_larryvand_* , Mar 14 2013 04:13 AM
99 replies to this topic
#81 
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Posted 16 March 2013 - 04:43 PM
#82
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Posted 16 March 2013 - 05:40 PM
You know what Larry, I agree. I should not have used any statement to a person. I respect your request, and in return I apologize to you and the board for it.So I would appreciate it if we can keep the "personal" away from talking about companies. We will not all agree about who is the best and who is doing better and who will be profitable first, but we can all agree that even though we can disagree, we can do so respectful of one another and without getting personal. Thanks.
#83 Guest_larryvand_*
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Posted 16 March 2013 - 07:40 PM
I think that is left up to interpretation. The way that I interpreted the quotes is the following: There are two quotes by SOL: #1 - "in recent months [ASPs] it's been pretty stable, has even gone up" #2 - "so Q1 will probably be about the same as Q4, maybe a little bit lower. I think in terms of Q2, might be $0.02, $0.03 higher" The only known fact during the CC was that Q4 was 63c. So I took everything as being talked off that number. That in Q1 it's going to be 63c or 62c and in Q2 is going to be 65c or 66c.That would basically put the ASP back at $0.64 or $0.65 depending on items right?
#84
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Posted 16 March 2013 - 11:19 PM
As long as I am smiling....life is still pretty darn good!!!! 
Looking forward to a great second half of 2013 for CSIQ, SOL, and for all solar investors for that matter who are invested in others such as TSL, YGE, JKS, JASO etc etc!!! Who will come out on top will be anyones guess over the next 12 months? I think long term there will be many successful companies leading to nice returns...Probably 3 or 4 will be heavy hitters in late 2013 early 2014!! Odyd thanks for the awesome analysis as always!!! Nano, prepare for that expensive drink....I have a strong feeling we will imbibe somewhere around XMAS this year and get to laugh some more!!!
Looking forward to a great second half of 2013 for CSIQ, SOL, and for all solar investors for that matter who are invested in others such as TSL, YGE, JKS, JASO etc etc!!! Who will come out on top will be anyones guess over the next 12 months? I think long term there will be many successful companies leading to nice returns...Probably 3 or 4 will be heavy hitters in late 2013 early 2014!! Odyd thanks for the awesome analysis as always!!! Nano, prepare for that expensive drink....I have a strong feeling we will imbibe somewhere around XMAS this year and get to laugh some more!!!#85 Guest_Believer_*
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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:03 AM
Hope you are right, Larryvand. I think about same, with Q1 and Q2 pricing. But of course, this time we must be on the right side, and hopefully module price come up now more than just 0,15 or 0,3%. This is of course very,very important for the near future results. But normally it starts with poly and wafers rising (and they did start rising fast in last weeks already ) and then after a while module prices should go up also. So I think it`s about time for modules within next 3 weeks to raise a lot more than just almost nothing. What I really don`t like, and what I didn`t expect so fast,is that poly prices in china didn`t change for the last 4 days. Makes me a little nervous. Hopefully this is just a short stop, to take a big breath so rising can continue. http://www.sunsirs.c...detail-463.html What do you guys think about this short stop??!!
#86 Guest_larryvand_*
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Posted 17 March 2013 - 12:39 PM
Believer, I think the breather could be because of the Chinese poly and European module tariff decisions, which details are still unknown, have slightly been pushed back. For myself, I would prefer to see an open market without any tariffs, and would prefer instead countries like the US that has almost $5/w full cost with installation and permits, concentrate to lowering that price to something like the $2/w of Germany. In the end everyone and the planet wins when solar hits grip parity everywhere.
#87 Guest_larryvand_*
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Posted 17 March 2013 - 01:06 PM
BTW, I would like to ask the group, who here in Jan 2011 would have predicted that in 2013 SOL will be doing 1.6 GW of modules (vast majority high efficiency ones) and have a 10,000 MT poly plant generating $15 cash cost poly while GCL will be losing nearly $500 million per quarter??? And BTW, SOL's cash+restricted cash is just $56m less than back then. ($324.3m in Jan 2011 vs $268.1m now)
So they more than doubled their poly capacity and they build a 1.6GW top quality high efficiency tier 1 module behemoth since then. I for one never expected it. Kudos to SOL management. They are building a giant. Sure there are still risks, but SOL is in better position, IMO, than anyone else out there, not just to weather the storm but to thrive. JMHO.
http://www.prnewswir...-197956671.html
http://www.prnewswir...-117138633.html
So they more than doubled their poly capacity and they build a 1.6GW top quality high efficiency tier 1 module behemoth since then. I for one never expected it. Kudos to SOL management. They are building a giant. Sure there are still risks, but SOL is in better position, IMO, than anyone else out there, not just to weather the storm but to thrive. JMHO.
http://www.prnewswir...-197956671.html
http://www.prnewswir...-117138633.html
#88 Guest_Believer_*
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Posted 17 March 2013 - 02:07 PM
Yes, Larryvand, you are totally right. In the end everyone and the planet wins when solar hits grip parity everywhere.... The tarrifs will of course slow down the price reduction to get to grid parady everywhere soon. I cannot imagine that china will be first who place high tarrifs on europ poly. Because when they do, I think europe will do the same on cells,modules.... I think china tries to show europe that they would hit back seriously, if europe does the same like US. IMO europe will make tariffs which will be much lower than US just to show that they did something. They don`t really want to start this. I am from germany and I`m proud that germany decided long ago to pay a lot of money (and still pay for next decades) to find out, if it`s really possible to produce clean energy cheaper than taking other sources. And now we know, IT IS! Look at china with their smog problems, the melting icebergs (which is not our fault,no no SURE) . The point is, what are we waiting for. Look at the world climatice conference, nothing BIG happens, just blablabla. Now China starts to speed up very fast, finally and it seems like they have understand the situation at least. And now the humanity has nothing better to do than aguing about unfair things that happens. Of course, there are maybe some things, of course there will be loosers but our earth is probably in big trouble, probably sooner than many would admit. I am not just saying this,because I am invested since 2007 in hope to have a good investment. I never though at the beginning, that also in this clean-tech-sector there would be sooooooooo much bad people and companies, who try to manipulate the people out there with serious wrong informations, that makes whole countries decide wrong because of lies!! So I finish my comment with your sentence again " In the end everyone and the planet wins when solar hits grit parity everywhere", and I am a BELIEVER that some day all countries want this. Hopefully not too late!
that some day all countries want this. Hopefully not too late!#89 Guest_Believer_*
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Posted 17 March 2013 - 02:40 PM
Guess not much people did. For sure SOL was surprised too about how much the market likes it`s virtus quality. In Q 1 2012 they sold from all modules just 11.0% which were virtusQ.2 it was47,65%, in Q3 69,99% and Q4 around 95%. They always talked about numbers which were much much less. Also I remember CC Q3 2012 when they said already, that they predict around 1000MW total sales for all modules in 2013.This was 30th november 2012, so just around 15 weeks ago and now they think 40-60% predict higher. If not everything goes totally wrong (like with LDK when they tried getting real big) there is a real chance for SOL. And the nice thing about it is, that SOL can start trying to get more money for their modules , because of quality provements and tier1. I remember a view years ago I was betting on TSL (luck that I was right, but didn`t really help) when no analyst found a good word. Around two-three years later TSL was No.1 , extra upcharge...,everybody talked about them. Things can change real fast sometimes...and Mr. Li is a real native smart guy, and until now I have no reason to doubt him. They are evenbetter than they say about themselvers. I like this character!
#90 Guest_larryvand_*
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Posted 17 March 2013 - 04:18 PM
To tell you the truth I will not be surprised to see a big name come in and invest $200mil on SOL so that they can scale rapidly. They have one of the lowest costs structure and one of the highest quality product. And they have demand for their products coming out of the wazoo. It is not very often that you see both from the same company. JMHO.
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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:18 PM
Please hold your horses. (What have you given them to eat, anyhow?) One minuscule thing I don't like about the modules: It's all quasi-mono (Virtus I), isn't it? Quasi-mono has horrible optics and customers in the higher priced residential segment don't like it so much. Thus it ends up being used in commercial / utility at lower prices or goes into residential at a heavy discount. This may prevent SOL from reaping good prices in attractive residential markets like Japan and USA for instance. What's up with VIrtus II ??? I would have expected 30% of Virtus II but we have only trial production. Any issues here? Virtus II in theory is a killer product because it has the low cost and efficiency advantages of Virtus I but does away with the optics issue.
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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:59 PM
Klothilde, 94% of the wafers made in Q4 were Virtus II. The rest was probably mostly mono. So all but Virtus II seems to be out. On the modules sold, they might have had Virtus I in inventory, since Virtus II was very new in Q4. The domination in type of wafers made in Q4 will show in the type of modules sold in Q1.
#93 Guest_Klothilde_*
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Posted 18 March 2013 - 12:50 AM
Ok sorry. I'm not 100% in the details so I might have missed that one. I also get confused a bit with the "rich" technical terminology of SOL, e.g. A++, A+++, Virtus I, Virtus II Maybe you can tell me what I'm not getting here from the CC. I read in the transcript that the A+++ wafers are now in trial production. That means for me that the Virtus II wafers are now in trial production, since I correlate the A+++ process with the VIrtus II brand name. Maybe this association is wrong, or maybe there is a mistake in the transcript? Let me know where I'm goofing up... From the CC: "ReneSola continue to invest in R&D in Q4 2012 to improve the technology behind its products and manufacturing. On wafers, the company's next-generation Virtus A+++ wafer with an average efficiencies of 17.6% to 17.8% are now in trial production. Our modules, the company's 60-cell 260 watt Virtus II modules with efficiency of 16% are now also in trial production, and the company's 60-cell 260 watt Virtus I modules are now in full production."Klothilde, 94% of the wafers made in Q4 were Virtus II. The rest was probably mostly mono. So all but Virtus II seems to be out. On the modules sold, they might have had Virtus I in inventory, since Virtus II was very new in Q4. The domination in type of wafers made in Q4 will show in the type of modules sold in Q1.
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Posted 18 March 2013 - 01:11 AM
No, I think you got it mixed up. This is their naming conventions: Virtus wafer (monocast) -> Virtus (I) module Virtus A++ wafer (controlled poly) -> Virtus II module Virtus A+++ wafer (controlled poly) -> Virtus III module Initially the Virtus II module was 250-255w. Then it bumped to 250-260w. I have to agree that the trial production comments of 260w was a bit puzzling. They've said the Virtus II average is 255w, but I guess we can read this as 260w not having significant volume yet. Either that or their trying some improvement of the 260w. I'm quite glad they could sell of all those flaky Virtus I in Q4 and basically only made wafer for Virtus II in the quarter.
#95 Guest_Klothilde_*
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Posted 18 March 2013 - 01:12 AM
Ok, I think now I get it. A++ = DSS = Virtus II Sorry for the confusion.
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Posted 18 March 2013 - 01:31 AM
We see 260w out there for Virtus II too, not just for mono and Virtus I, so management comments were a bit confusing. Here quoted and all: http://www.civicsola...att-solar-panel
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Posted 18 March 2013 - 01:50 AM
Another one here: http://www.solarverk...-virtus-ii.html On model names: Mono = jc260s-24/bb Virtus I = jc260m-24/bbv Virtus II = jc260m-24/bb
#98
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Posted 18 March 2013 - 07:52 AM
Quoted from Larryvand:
Odyd, as of close of friday...
CSIQ high close of the year was Mid Feb 15th at 5.00 not 5.15 down 31.8%CSIQ was 5.15 now 3.5 = down 32% (CSIQ was also down to 3.12 after earnings or down 40%)
YGE was 3.63 now 2.47 = down 32% (YGE was also down to 2.26 after earnings or down 38%)
TSL was 5.91 now 4.11 = down 31% (TSL was also down to 3.81 after earnings or down 36%)
SOL was 2.85 now 1.97 = down 31%
.
SOL high close for year 2.80 Feb 19th at 2.80, down 36.07%
The Friday before earnings CSIQ 3.72 now 3.41 down 8.33%
SOL before earnings was 2.26 now 1.79 down 20.79%
Unfortunately I own both, so I guess the laugh is on me. However, I think they will both do well as the year progresses. Looking forward to Q2, Q3 and Q4 for CSIQ. Particularly Q3/Q4 for huge rally in CSIQ....I think SOL will rally off this area soon and rather quickly.
***Note I chose the comic sans MS because the laugh is on me for owning both. And I can always count on Larry to make me smile and also his alter ego who signed up recently
. Good luck to us all!!!! #99 Guest_larryvand_*
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Posted 18 March 2013 - 08:08 AM
Huh?? What alter ego?? BTW, I own both as well and the 100 SMA that I mentioned here on Friday at $1.77/78 just got hit. Just bought more. In any case you missed it, I posted that CSIQ should trade at 2x SOL with everything being equal but the shares outstanding. 1.8 = 3.60. Anything below 2x is underperforming and anything above 2x is overperforming.Larry to make me smile and also his alter ego who signed up recently
#100
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Posted 20 March 2013 - 11:45 AM
Looks like the market has an other opinion.Gap up baby. Everyone will be chasing this all day today and Friday and the rest of the month. Current price is the biggest bargain in solar. Renesola could do $1.2-1.4 BILLION in sales in 2013. That will be an ALL TIME record.
Gap up baby. Everyone will be chasing this all day today and Friday and the rest of the month. Current price is the biggest bargain in solar. Renesola could do $1.2-1.4 BILLION in sales in 2013. That will be an ALL TIME record.
