99 replies to this topic

[odyd]

And every panel at SOL is profitable. Can you say the same for YGE?

what are you a five year old? I have written that I do not see YGE to be profitable this year. I see CSIQ profitable in Q2. SOL will not be profitable until Q3 and only if the ASP recovers. CSIQ will be profitable despite of ASP recovery or not. I do not care about day to day month to month prices. I am like a mutual fund, I evaluate and buy more. I can tell you that YGE's probability of being around is greater than SOLs in next 24 months.

[odyd]

Do you disagree with this breakdown odyd?

Without normalized expenses I cannot tell you what I see. THE EBITA for SOL is $5M actually in Q4. I do not see amo for YGE, CSIQ and TSL and hate to guess on new amortization from expansions.

[Pop2mollys]

And every panel at SOL is profitable. Can you say the same for YGE?

what are you a five year old? I have written that I do not see YGE to be profitable this year. I see CSIQ profitable in Q2. SOL will not be profitable until Q3 and only if the ASP recovers. CSIQ will be profitable despite of ASP recovery or not. I do not care about day to day month to month prices. I am like a mutual fund, I evaluate and buy more. I can tell you that YGE's probability of being around is greater than SOLs in next 24 months.

To each his own. I will make you a friendly wager that SOL will be profitable by Q2. Anyways I'm looking forward to export data for February! it's a wonderful tool

[odyd]

To each his own. I will make you a friendly wager that SOL will be profitable by Q2

How about instead, you mathematically show me how SOL will be profitable by Q2? I would appreciate that more than anything you could offer me in the wager. I am really tired of "real winner" OMG and and Gee statements and I wish to see some serious computing. Thanks in advance.

[Pop2mollys]

To each his own. I will make you a friendly wager that SOL will be profitable by Q2

How about instead, you mathematically show me how SOL will be profitable by Q2? I would appreciate that more than anything you could offer me in the wager. I am really tired of "real winner" OMG and and Gee statements and I wish to see some serious computing. Thanks in advance.

Im too tired to get into a detailed breakdown. But if everything lines up and ASP hit .66 as they predict by Q2 and wafer stay stable and they are in line with guidance I see a small profit anywhere between .02-.06 They would need to gross approx 57 mill to 6o mill to hit this numbers meaning they have to hit 420MW+ with solid ASP above What we have currently have you could see gross in range of 50-52 mill. On wafer side I think they can gross 7-8 million with slight rise in prices. So combined wafer and module I see 57-60 mill which would be slight profit. Seasonally Q1 is always weak and they guided I believe 300MW which means which means they see Q2-Q4 very strong and as they did in Q4 I believe they laid out conservative numbers. High end of guidance was 1600MW on module and I'm sure they left out capacity to beat this. They could easily surprise with 500MW+ Q sometime this year. So I'm throwing Ruff numbers out here but estimating their interest is around 13 mill and and opex around 34-36 mill + taxes should leave room for small profit. Of course there is a lot of moving parts based on module and wafer pricing.... If they hit their cost cutting targets and if they hit guidance. These are rough estimates and I wouldn't be invested in solar if I thought ASP where to take another leg down. I see big demand and 40 GW+ Installed this year with rising ASP throughout the year. Sorry if anyone feels we are pumping the chit out of SOL. I have a lot of money involved and I'm excited by their tremendous growth and high demand of their modules. I will tone it down...

[spiritcraft]

"Your stock was beaten down harder than mine" or "your stock sucks"... C'mon, is that the purpose of this board? We should be turn our energies into something positive like lobbying local governments to somehow lower BOS costs and red tape. Maybe a concerted effort to combat the slander of PV in general. I don't know... but allowing emotions to turn us into sniveling brats won't help attract board member or investors. No one here is a genius investor who has never lost on a trade or was never down on paper through a PV investment. We will all do well when all these names turn a profit and are seen widely as a good investment and PV becomes a hot sector with big money flow coming in. Sorry my rant for the day. Like many here, I own a few names. I currently own TSL, SOL and CSIQ... If I had multiple personalities I could have a field day arguing with myself.

[odyd]

And please, nowhere in my posts I called you names and have concentrated into the companies at hand. So I would appreciated if you did the same. Thanks.

That is not the name calling Larry, that is the level of you behavior. The name calling would be a pumper, a clown etc.
I have not done that, and anyone here who would, would be banned. You made a rudimentary statement, which lead to my answer, as we have both discussed ReneSola's ability to reach profit. Since you not comfortable put similar basic arguments against CSIQ, you had jumped to YGE knowing that I own the stock. You used bits of facts about it , like polysilicon pricing, and my statements about contractual agreements, to turn on me by saying, that someone (me) determined the pricing, and guess what it was better for SOL anyway. Even in the post accusing me of calling you names, you contradicted on your specific need to talk about pannels.

Unless the ASPs rise considerably, so that YGE can turn a profit, YGE is in trouble IMO

As you see you had the agenda, which I answered two posts ago and if you read my article, I answered there.
I have never plotted YGE into thie conversation, because "I know" that YGE has no chance imo to reach profit in 2013. This is why I was discussing CSIQ, which is structured to profit greatly in 2013.
More so in order to argue your point you continue to say things which are not true

On the other hand SOL has already proved in Q4 2012 with profitable panels, profitable wafers and positive cash flow that not only will have a great 2013, but that they will thrive.

SOL does not have even remotely best cost structure in Q4. CSIQ does and chances are that Jinko will have something in area of $0.54. In fact Using rudimentary approach SOL had 3.3% margin CSIQ had 5% that one did not included another 2.7% margin for under utilization. This means not only CSIQ had it better margin it had 100% and some better gross margins.
I see a good discussion developing on the breakdowns of cost to determine profitability of SOL.
SOL EBITA is $5M plus, why guess when they provide cash flow statement.
The reality is that using OPEX+ Net IR and the COGS Renesola was off by 4 cents from breaking even in Q4 on the basis of all watts they sold
In Q1, they will reach as they say $0.55, but they warned they will sell at lower ASP, in China ReneSola advertise their modules at 0.58 per watt, what for if you sold out one would ask. So discussion on Q2 has merit.
So this is why I do not see it.
1. Plant contribution at the end of Q2 at $18. If happens it will not help the quarter.
2. Wafer pricing for Q1 has been at 0.22 to 0.23 per watt. Since their contribution of poly is flat (plant not giving benefit) and spot going up, I see no change in cost structure for wafer.
3. ASP for modules in my opinion will comeback to 0.63. Processing will be (no benefit of poly) still at 0.55 to 0.56. Any extra sales over 300MW will add to costs. Even if they can recreate their manufacturing costing in India (who thinks they cannot, me) there is a shipping component to it even for locations helping in China.
4. Cells, which they toll, will increase their costs as there is COGS shipment built in component for raw materials.
5. Lastly I think there will be new borrowing required which will add interest.
6. Their accounts payable are high in Q4, which causes potential for default on payments affecting Opex and cash flow. They sell cheap and they run risk to be skimmed.
7. They are not paying their operating bills. In ratio to available cash on hand which is only $93M. Their restricted cash is supporting their debt and it is growing.
8. Plant outcome is unknown. It costs a lot of money yet $60M to move it to place.
9. Their operating Q4 positive cash flow is built on one time events like reversal of goodwill impairment and tax benefit write off, so not lasting, and in fact negative for Q4.

I am more comfortable to see them in Q3, but you know what? that is sooner than YGE.



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[Pop2mollys]

Lots of love on this board.... LOL Have a good weekend everyone.

[explo]

odyd, I think one point with the SOL profitability claims is their OPEX suit. Selling expenses as percentage of revenue: SOL 3.6% TSL 10.0% General and administrative expenses as percentage of revenue: SOL 3.9% TSL 8.5% So looking at the Q4 example gross margin has to pass 18.5% for TSL just to cover SG&A, while SOL has that covered already at a gross margin 7.5%. So when looking at the viability of business structures in this low ASP environment it is for me just as much a question about gross margin required by the overhead structure as it is about gross margin attainable by the production/procurement/sales structure.

[odyd]

The mechanism of this % is size of the revenue and the fixed costs in general and administrative expenses. Full capacity utilization for 2400MW versus 1200MW require different points of fixed costs. TSL which is having large overhang to its business today seems deficient to SOL, but this is inherit condition, not the permanent one. I will watch developments with interest, but if there is doubt, I am not sold on the superiority of SOL in its particular condition, financially or operationally. I have stated before my profitability clock. CSIQ- Q2, SOL -Q3 (have issues as described), TSL-Q3 or Q4 (maybe a lot of dependencies) YGE- who knows, not 2013.

[Pop2mollys]

Explo what are your thoughts on SOL first profitable Q? Do you personally think they can swing it in Q2?

[odyd]

No idea, I follow your inquires on JASO thread. I am hearing that JA is making huge effort to be number one Chinese company in Japan. I also hear that they want to be big in China. On basis of this I am split on ASP. Their huge cell cap. is a problem for selling abroad, so this is what is holding them back in my books. As a module maker, they are in the same play with SOL, expanding. I will hold my opinion until numbers are published. I did like their balance sheet a lot, too, fought of it as pretty solid.