371 replies to this topic

[odyd]

Hi Pop,

I added a new document for a download, which offers my view on Japanese portfolio, based on some new data from the company. Opinions are my own and they are not endorsed by CSIQ. I hope the document can open up a discussion. Opinions offer dose of optimism but quickly leading to finishing line in development in Japan, outside of what I called as 51GW. Dynamic of course can change. The beauty of solar is that as the semiconductor based technology it offers semi-unlimited opportunity for improvement resulting in reduced cost.

http://solarpvinvest...-analysis-csiq/

[adetur]

Odyd,

 

excellent work, thanks. We hope a PR which updates regard Japanese projects...

[explo]

Great document odyd, thanks.

[Pop2mollys]

Excellent Breakdown, thanks odyd.

[odyd]

Thank you.

My comments obviously have been built on price ranges of $4 and $3. With the drop of the yen the prices of BOS have dropped, when money is being invested into plant development. So perhaps the cost is no longer $3 when CSIQ id building a plant but $2.50, while price in YEN has not change that much. This is where speculators are looking at the proverbial highway but stay on one side of the road assessing the stock. 

 

This could mean increase in GM as this mathematical exercise shows. $1 profit over $4 ASP is 25% and $1 profit over 3.5 is 28%. This can be easily accounted for investment dollar simply going further today when YEN is bought versus last year or year before that, when CSIQ started plotting its investments in Japan. Of course when M. Potter talks about same or better margins, how do we expect in the environment of dropping margins to believe it? As some loudest antagonists provide, they are not the strongest in math or accounting or use of numbers all together, do not expect market to do it.

[odyd]

Sounds like Tohoku restarted reviews. Based on grid interconnection requirements, applications received on or after October 1 will be forced under new rules of excess of 360 hours without compensation and of course anything after the Jan 15th, as well.

http://www.tohoku-ep...88918_1049.html

CSIQ projects are not force under this rule, which is a good news.

[odyd]

Based on METI chart, it shows that applications received by the utility till November were around 6.19GW. The utility had considered 5.84GW and approved 5.80GW. CSIQ issued its update on October 6th, stating suspension of their projects, which started on October 1.

I imagine that 135MW are somewhere just above 5.8 mark, so the review should cover CSIQ first thing, still using 30 days rule. Potential attrition among 5.8GW approved, will make this work. 

[odyd]

Received the feedback from Ed. Basically he said that they are continuously in contact with utilities and authorities in charge of the permitting process. He says they will have an update on the call or before the call. He said that update will be made when warranted.

He did not give me a view on any curtailment scenarios, I had to ask but was sure not see anything back.

He also denied involvement in PennWest 37MW of projects, recently having financing news.

Finally he gave me no details on UK, by saying the news will be made, once in a position to disclose. I found that 34MW projects is being developed with two German companies, where CSIQ is named as partner, and both companies work planning and design and EPC. It sounds to me that project will be connected (or the other half will be connected) by end of March. I asked him about it as I thought CSIQ could be the owner or ownership could be shared. As you see I did not get far.

[explo]

Thanks for the update.

[odyd]

I am attaching the presentation published by the Tohoku utility company, one which holds 135MW of CSIQ projects currently. The document is translated from the original.

Based on the table if CSIQ had its application up to September 30th, 2014, the applicable rule will be 30 days or so without compensation. After October 1 is 360 ours.

Filing prior September 30th, makes the problem go away and with resumptions, I would imagine CSIQ get the grid access

Attached Files

•  TohokuPresentationtranslate.pdf   189.59KB   9 downloads

[Pop2mollys]

Thanks odyd, nice find.

[Pop2mollys]

Not only did the expand their late stage pipeline in Japan to 606 MW, they expanded their grid connection approved projects to 262MW(awesome!) that's a 75% jump in guaranteed grid connection approvals at ultra high FIT.
On top of that they are in process of acquiring another 140MW in Japan! Huge. Their late stage in Japan after acquiring projects could stand at 746 MW!
Market priced them slashing Japan late stage projects, instead even amidst all the noise they dramatically increased their grid connected approved products and increased their late stage and are about to increase it even more with acquiring late stage projects. Datta boy Qu!

http://www.prnewswir...-300027680.html

[polarsparkie]

Currently, Canadian Solar's total late-stage solar project pipeline stands at 1.4 GWp, unchanged from 1.4GWp in November of 2014, despite the completion of over 100 MWp of projects in Canada and in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2014

 

So their ahead by 100MW since Nov 2014? As the late stage hasn't decreased any

[Solar123]

Not only did the expand their late stage pipeline in Japan to 606 MW, they expanded their grid connection approved projects to 262MW(awesome!) that's a 75% jump in guaranteed grid connection approvals at ultra high FIT.
On top of that they are in process of acquiring another 140MW in Japan! Huge. Their late stage in Japan after acquiring projects could stand at 746 MW!
Market priced them slashing Japan late stage projects, instead even amidst all the noise they dramatically increased their grid connected approved products and increased their late stage and are about to increase it even more with acquiring late stage projects. Datta boy Qu!

http://www.prnewswir...-300027680.html

Geez, you'd think you own shares in the company or something... ;)

Looks good, but will the market care?

[Pop2mollys]

"Nomura believes the 150MW for which CSIQ has all permits is a given by mid-2015F and this size may be sufficient for it to evaluate a yieldco like vehicle for listing in Japan, in our view."

http://m.asian-power...r-are-overblown

Hey Nomura if 150 MW connection approved projects is good for a Yieldco by mid 2015, how about 262 MW with full grid connection approval? 😁

[kknd1234]

Yield Co need at least 500-600 MW of project. without Recurrent, CSIQ won't have enough project to launch Yield Co.

Their Japan's project for 2015 is still 80 MW.

[Pop2mollys]

Yield Co need at least 500-600 MW of project. without Recurrent, CSIQ won't have enough project to launch Yield Co.
Their Japan's project for 2015 is still 80 MW.

Guess you didn't see they bumped up China too. They know expect 330MW be end of 2015 to be connected to grid. Then in Japan they now have 262MW grid connection approved. Once it's grid connection approved it can be included in Yieldco. So it's not 80MW in Japan, it's now 262MW.
As stated by Nomura once you have all three permits (third being connection approval) it can be included in Yieldco...

"Nomura believes the 150MW for which CSIQ has ALL PERMITS is a given by mid-2015F and this size may be sufficient for it to evaluate a yieldco like vehicle for listing in Japan, in our view."

330+262 = 592MW...JUST in Japan and China.

That's a Yieldco my friend. Recurrent is icing on the cake if they want it.

[explo]

Great update. CSIQ continues to replenish and grow pipeline despite the serious tapping of it that started 2H14 and will continue this year.

[sunnysky]

They expect to connect 320 MW in China by end of 2015, that is awesome also.

[Makan]

Maybe I am a too negative person, but I am not used to freak out over every news piece that I get to read. I am just trying to get any news out of the PR that is not yet known. The figures in Japan are matching the original assumption, the speculation here was that 400+ MW will be built in Japan. Now we have only 262 MW with grid approval after the last update. The news did not give more certainty over the other 344 MW of which 125 MW are in Tohoku and therefore most likely to be cancelled.

 

I think 1.4 GW late stage, that number should go up just to be flat on revenue, as for that Canada was replaced with lower priced Brazil and UK. But good they managed to connect another 30 MW in China and have now 100 MW running there. In the webcast I think they expected 350 MW in China in 2015, 1 GW earlier, now we reached 320 MW. I think these are just ballpark numbers like any other company is doing it. Probably the only number that has credibility in China is the 90 MW they are building now and the 100 MW they have connected in total.

 

However, I fail to see the big game changer in the news, maybe someone can explain to me the huge good news/surprise here? Is it the relieve they haven't taken any off the Japan pipeline?