371 replies to this topic

[odyd]

I actually don't think we have to be too worried about what 2015 EPS will be. 2015 will develop those US and Japan pipelines to reap in 2016 and forward. Investors like to look forward to reap season rather than enjoy recent harvest (as seen in the market's reaction to the glorious 14Q3 results). CSIQ stock should see steady appreciation this year.

I am not worried, but I am stock price conscious. I would also like to see them move the earnings potential. I do not think Recurrent portfolio will get sold. I think more of the Japan can. At $3.50 *80MW and 34MW in UK at $2.20, both at 20%  I get 70M gross, which gives me the $0.77 extra.

In 2016 this looks fantastic, as they maybe adding some of the Japanese projects to the US yield and selling some.

[explo]

Explo, at this price do you think CSIQ is a better potential gainer than JASO? Thanks.

JASO is a panel market-share growth success story with a dirt cheap stock case, but also has some uncertainties, like unluckily locked out from US market as their 2012 tariff rate was not reviewed, very high dependence on Japanese market, haven't shown their downstream execution yet (exposed to troubled Gansu province).

The price of CSIQ is much higher, but they are also in a very comfortable position now where they get low US tariff, can buy cells at currently depressed prices and flip them to modules at the lowest cost in the industry and they are a leader in global project development, this combined with their China supply-chain access make them unique. If it is rare it is valuable.

You can see from my portfolio % how I've placed my bets. As you see I'm still more price (known) focused than value (estimated and exposed) focused as I am conservative in assigning companies too deviating values, since things are still blurry beyond 2017 (i.e. anything beyond a PE 3). So I still think JASO has more potential, but notice that I've kept CSIQ at 15% despite being up 40% since I entered it. It means that as I saw price hike 40% I think this reflect the hike in visible value.

[Pop2mollys]

Note from nomura
nomura's top solar pick CanadianSolar (CSIQ US,BUY,TP US$46) up +25% overnight after its acquisitionof Recurrent Energy (Sharp) was confirmed. Although deal had been talked aboutsince Nov, market failed to price in given weak crude price environment. Nitinthinks yday's 25% move on high volume is only beginning of further upside in2015, as it provides additional 1GW of late-stagepipeline (more assets for yieldco) and entryinto US pipeline (best prospects in 2015-16 ahead of tax creditexpiry).

Reiterate assets areunder-recognised; 1) best non-Japan operator in that market, 2) pipelinetrading at US$0.70/W vs US$2.3/W at First Solar and Sunpower. Bull compSunEdison trading at US$5.04/W… successful spin-off suggests 460% upsidepotential. Continue buying ahead of 4Q14Fearnings call where they are expected to provide update on yieldco.Change our valuation methodology toward IPP model – after earnings adjustmenttrading only 5.5x PE15 and 1.1x PB15 for 25% ROE.

Nice find kk, Nomura over the years has by far been the best analyst in regards to CSIQ. Where did you find this info?

[explo]

I am not worried, but I am stock price conscious. I would also like to see them move the earnings potential. I do not think Recurrent portfolio will get sold. I think more of the Japan can. At $3.50 *80MW and 34MW in UK at $2.20, both at 20%  I get 70M gross, which gives me the $0.77 extra.
In 2016 this looks fantastic, as they maybe adding some of the Japanese projects to the US yield and selling some.

Yes I'm very excited about 2016 too and I think the stock will reflect that excitement in 2015 and kind of shrug at the ERs in 2015.

[Pop2mollys]

Not worried at all about some churning today. After 1 day 25% move and oil then down 7% today some churning would be expected..

We are only 4 weeks from earnings. Honestly I think we are going to see a dramatic move higher as we get closer because Yieldco announcement will be anticipated.

Look at valuation SUNE has and they aren't even close to reporting profits yet.

[explo]

We are only 4 weeks from earnings.

And provision of 2015 outlook. Once everybody realize that things look good for 2015 I think the stocks will start to move higher. Smart part of market expects this to be known in a month and should start moving stock prices higher already this month.

Yes some breathing after a 25% move was expected. Especially when oil is down 7% today and seems to have an irrational hook on PV stock prices. I expect steady appreciation from CSIQ. This one is now a sit back and enjoy the ride stock for this year.

[Pop2mollys]

If you listen close to CC today you will notice analysts are way more focused on what this does for a Yieldco vs. What it does for bottom line earnings.
Even Qu said Yieldco would lock tremendous value for shareholders, and he is the largest shareholder. To me an announcement of a Yieldco in 4 weeks would trump any earnings estimates they could give. Like odyd said I think using 1GW US as Yieldco is way to go. Then sell maybe half Japan pipeline and throw the other half in there with Yieldco along with China projects and UK. A nice combination of solid earnings and strong Yieldco seems like the optimal way to go.

[odyd]

RE portfolio changed the game for the company. However, timing is still an open book question. I am looking forward to March to hear their plans but I think end of the 2015 and possibly 2016 Q1 could be realistic time. Anything before that I think it will be hard.

Financially it will be difficult for them to carry Japan and the US pipelines on the balance sheet, so decision will have to be made on what gets sold and what gets to stay. 

While I see a logical outcome to have the US portfolio listed in the US, a Japanese one listed in Tokyo would be also fantastic, but it seems too foreign of the idea. Listing Japanese assets could offer interesting returns for the US market, but perhaps would be hard to list. Ultimately a mix could be an option.

Finally 2.3B in assets with $260M in returns and $135M in capital invested, still will need around $1.9B in capital, This would have to have around $570M in cash and 70% equity covered by banks. Things have to be sold.

If you look at their Q3 project assets it was about 393M current, which some 230M got sold, with support of some $100M in liability. So many will be there, but things will have to get sold for sure. The power of the cash flows will be great.

I think by the time Q1 rolls in with balance sheet it may look like nothing has been spent on RE.

[explo]

One interesting new thing is that CSIQ now have really big projects in their portfolio, which can take years instead of quarters to finish.

[odyd]

Kk, what do you think of 460% potential after spin-off?

I am surprised that Nitin has $46 (which seem a $1 higher) instead of $60 (not $92)

Are you buying CSIQ at this levels or think it is going to visit recent lows?

thanks

[kknd1234]

Kk, what do you think of 460% potential after spin-off?

I am surprised that Nitin has $46 (which seem a $1 higher) instead of $60 (not $92)

Are you buying CSIQ at this levels or think it is going to visit recent lows?

thanks

I added 10k share yesterday at open. yesterday's volume confirmed the uptrend. and H&S Pattern is out of picture.

[Tibilorio]

Very good info about RE in Australia.

http://reneweconomy....-projects-22857
http://reneweconomy....australia-48781

[odyd]

Very good info about RE in Australia.

http://reneweconomy....-projects-22857
http://reneweconomy....australia-48781

I thought they pulled out. Anything there sounds as a bonus.

[explo]

I thought they pulled out. Anything there sounds as a bonus.

1.2 GW of the 4 GW is in Australia. 61 MW is in Ontario. Rest is in California and Texas.

Last slide: http://media.corpora...tion_vFINAL.pdf

[odyd]

1.2 GW of the 4 GW is in Australia. 61 MW is in Ontario. Rest is in California and Texas.

Yes, I seen this but I was not sure on this as the FiT or other incentives were on hold, I am not putting a lot on this, I suppose.

[Pop2mollys]

JP Morgan raises PT on CSIQ to $40

http://www.theflyont...and?symbol=CSIQ

[odyd]

JP Morgan raises PT on CSIQ to $40

http://www.theflyont...and?symbol=CSIQ

That's so conservative.

[BIPV Investor]

I added 10k share yesterday at open. yesterday's volume confirmed the uptrend. and H&S Pattern is out of picture.

No you didn't. Hang out on Yahoo if that is how you want to roll.

[Pop2mollys]

No you didn't. Hang out on Yahoo if that is how you want to roll.

That had to be almost 1/4 million dollar buy...

[kknd1234]

That had to be almost 1/4 million dollar buy...

I made 600k on my CSIQ investment. so only reinvest half of the money back.