371 replies to this topic

[Pop2mollys]

Boom goes the dynamite!

"Once completed, the acquisition of Recurrent will increase Canadian Solar's total solar project pipeline by approximately 4.0 GW to 8.5 GW, and its late-stage project pipeline by approximately 1.0 GW to 2.4 GW."

Their late stage pipeline and overall pipeline just it pumped full of steroids.

[explo]

Explo, do you think Recurrent will cancel order from REC for $200M? Now REC is Chinese so maybe in a good faith they will keep a small prepayment?

I'd say they have a lot of options now. REC panels will likely remain attractive for US developers as TW cells are out, but revised 2012 tariff rate offers similar value now and if you have those in-house it is cheaper than REC panels. You also have non-CN/TW cell price coming down 5 cents as a result of this tariff revision which could make Ontario plant more suitable to service US tariff free instead of service EU tariff free (outside quota) with further 4 cents cheaper TW cells. If they are sold out I think they might keep REC supply agreement (maybe renegotiate) as a good source of non-CN/TW cells, modules and even wafers (you never know what happens). I think CSIQ can flip internally which panels in the end go to which destination. So I see REC contract as more of an asset to help global supply-chain navigation than a liability. REC being Chinese now probably help to exploit this.

[Pop2mollys]

I am surprised how good this looks like 19.5% GM, 585M in assets,
Net income 229M from 245M in operating profit. This means very little financial cost to carry. 18.2% net income percentage?
Wow

What a deal for CSIQ! Qu gave a monster hint in CC whe he said big things were cooking behind the scenes. Great breakdown ed sent to you. He is going to be loving his email box. I just sent him a great email thanking him and Qu for delivering for their shareholders.

[Pop2mollys]

Get your popcorn ready...

"Canadian Solar will host a conference call for investors to discuss the transaction on February 4, 2015 at 8:00 am ET. A replay will be available until February 11, 2015 at 11:59PM ET"

[explo]

Ed just sent me a link to recent Recurrent balance sheet

http://www.sharp-wor...df/150203-3.pdf

 

That looks fantastic for a 265m price tag.

[explo]

What a deal for CSIQ! Qu gave a monster hint in CC whe he said big things were cooking behind the scenes. Great breakdown ed sent to you. He is going to be loving his email box. I just sent him a great email thanking him and Qu for delivering for their shareholders.

 

Yep. Congrats Pop (and other hard core fully loaded 100% CSIQ holders). You've seen this coming and patiently waited. I'm glad I'm a holder too today.

[Pop2mollys]

Yep. Congrats Pop (and other hard core fully loaded 100% CSIQ holders). You've seen this coming and patiently waited. I'm glad I'm a holder too today.

Explo I think your our good luck charm. You buying signaled a bottom in stock. I'm glad your on board with CSIQ, great timing on your part.

[Dan]

Yeah!! what a wonderful wake up !!!

I'm more loaded than ever, was buying all the way down..

it's time to rest, get the pop and watch the screen..

more than 8 GW pipeline, can't believe it !!!

[Solar123]

I haven't had morning wood like this in a while.

Will be a fun day.

[explo]

I'd say they have a lot of options now. REC panels will likely remain attractive for US developers as TW cells are out, but revised 2012 tariff rate offers similar value now and if you have those in-house it is cheaper than REC panels. You also have non-CN/TW cell price coming down 5 cents as a result of this tariff revision which could make Ontario plant more suitable to service US tariff free instead of service EU tariff free (outside quota) with further 4 cents cheaper TW cells. If they are sold out I think they might keep REC supply agreement (maybe renegotiate) as a good source of non-CN/TW cells, modules and even wafers (you never know what happens). I think CSIQ can flip internally which panels in the end go to which destination. So I see REC contract as more of an asset to help global supply-chain navigation than a liability. REC being Chinese now probably help to exploit this.

 

This Bloomberg article contains comments from Recurrent's COO that give some color on sourcing strategy: http://www.bloomberg...for-265-million

 

“Canadian Solar is going to continue to operate Recurrent as an independent entity, much like we have with Sharp,” David Brochu, chief operating officer at Recurrent Energy, said in a phone interview. Recurrent will source solar panels competitively and consider using those made by their new parent, he said.

[odyd]

“Canadian Solar is going to continue to operate Recurrent as an independent entity, much like we have with Sharp,” David Brochu, chief operating officer at Recurrent Energy, said in a phone interview. Recurrent will source solar panels competitively and consider using those made by their new parent, he said.

 

That's what he thinks it will happen. I am hoping he was given the right to disclosure or he could be the first downsizing victim. Recall my Target story?

CSIQ will run the business as it see fit just not on a first day and only when transaction is completed. Let's be certain of one thing, Canadian will not run things like Sharp, I do not have to guess that.

[thejaq]

Exciting news. congratulations everyone!

[Pop2mollys]

I cant wait for that CC tomorrow. I thought Qu was a monster in the 3Q CC call when it came to his confidence level. He will be pissing excellence in the morning.

His vision set in place many years ago to utilize Canadian pipeline as a catapult to becoming a Global Monster is happening right in front of our eyes. Well done sir, well done...

[kknd1234]

I cant wait for that CC tomorrow. I thought Qu was a monster in the 3Q CC call when it came to his confidence level. He will be pissing excellence in the morning

Congrats Pop, Great news

[Pop2mollys]

Congrats Pop, Great news

I appreciate the kind words kk. I hope you join the party today.

[odyd]

This is a great day , but I got to say it. "they will consider it?"

What kind of wild rice executive says this in public? Canadian did not buy that company to be told what panels to be used, they will be using CSIQ panels everywhere, unless the cost prohibits the contract dissolution. David thinks CSIQ will accept a $0.80 per watt, while Canadian makes then at $0.52. I read this comment on GTM originally yesterday and the first thing coming to my head, is why did they ask this guy , who's job is online to comment, and why would the guy who's job is online answered it in a fashion as he does not care?

Anyways , this is a great day we all waited for. I feel good about this acquisition for a lot of reasons. 

[odyd]

Odyd, im confused with BS....1.253 B$ revenues?

How can RE reach that?

Hi, well it looks like revenue wise RE has similar power of JA or JKS (those guys 1-3Q) , and 5 times power of net income. They have sold some serious plant wattage in 2013/2014 season, but it looks like either Sharp has no clue what they had or did not know what to do with it.

The question is if Assets are $500M, how much of it is equity and how much is liability. Judging by financing costs from this description, Liability could be around $200M.

[explo]

Hi, well it looks like revenue wise RE has similar power of JA or JKS (those guys 1-3Q) , and 5 times power of net income. They have sold some serious plant wattage in 2013/2014 season, but it looks like either Sharp has no clue what they had or did not know what to do with it.
The question is if Assets are $500M, how much of it is equity and how much is liability. Judging by financing costs from this description, Liability could be around $200M.

They bought it a trailing PE of 1.15. It is almost ridicolous. It's fun to be a relaxed predator filled with financial power (CSIQ) in the industry while others (Sharp) are at max financial stress.

[odyd]

They bought it a ttm PE 1.15. It is almost ridicolous. It's fun to be a relaxed predator filled with financial power (CSIQ) in the industry while others (Sharp) are at max financial stress.

We do not see what this looks today, but if it is remotely as good, you are correct. My recent review of 2015 and 2016 finally can be put to rest. I think A. Canadian has shown its exclusive ability among Chinese to operate freely globally, to grow exponentially as the leader would, all in the financial comforts of its strategies and careful methodology. Now we will turn our heads from "can they replace it" to proving GMs and net outcomes.

Sharp has been called out not to have synergy with this organisation, reference to managing Recurrent like Sharp would be in retention of entity only, but in full synergy.

[explo]

We do not see what this looks today, but if it is remotely as good, you are correct. My recent review of 2015 and 2016 finally can be put to rest. I think A. Canadian has shown its exclusive ability among Chinese to operate freely globally, to grow exponentially as the leader would, all in the financial comforts of its strategies and careful methodology. Now we will turn our heads from "can they replace it" to proving GMs and net outcomes.

Sharp has been called out not to have synergy with this organisation, reference to managing Recurrent like Sharp would be in retention of entity only, but in full synergy.

 

Yes, I feel very comfortable now with a market cap of CSIQ significantly higher than other CN4 (and triple JASO's). It is now based less on potential on more on a reality in terms future project development. Strong USD and permanent ITC makes a US pipeline look much more beautiful now than 6 months ago.