GCL is not interested in the cell/module business. The new venture is a way for them to strengthen their project business and develop a platform to fund meaningful M&As in the PV sector. Remember CMI is formed for the purpose of consolidating the overcapacity in steel, shipping, and solar. As an example, TSL may get funding from CMI if they want to take over some struggling lower tier company.
What I see how this industry develops is
(1) The downstream business will drive the growth of the industry
(2) For the downstream business to grow, standards for PV products efficiency, performance, reliability, and longevity measures need
all to be developed
(3) Models for project development based on those standards for both central solar farms and rooftop projects will improve and eventually
settle into some mature and easy-to-operate forms. This will cover insurance, centralized FiT collection, grid connection and management,
ownership of the plants and transfer, financing vehicles, etc, basically all the current major issues which hinder the DG takeoff, and
as well as the development of a healthy plant sales market.
(4) The drive to quality, which will become essential in order to secure approvals, financing, and plant sales, will marginalize the inferior players,
accelerate the pace of M&A, and foster the emergence of a few large dominant companies in each segments.
Not saying this is easy or can be achieved quickly, but I think we should be seeing some results late 2014 and early 2015.
