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China could install 15GW in 2014 says Deutsche Bank: polysilicon supply constraints loom

China Solar Ploy

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#1 sunnysky

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 10:19 PM

http://www.pv-tech.o...gn=newsnow-feed

 

Deutsche Bank’s research analyst, Vishal Shah painted a scenario of PV installations run-rate in 2014 reaching between 13GW to 15GW, up from around 6GW to 7GW expected in 2013 and ahead of the Chinese Governments annual target of around 10GW.

The Deutsche Bank analyst is forecasting global PV demand in 2013 to reach around 38GW and increase strongly in 2014 to as high as 45GW, with upside potential.

 

Bullish on polysilicon demand

Deutsche Bank noted that should the 45GW global demand forecast for 2014 prove to be too conservative, due to other regions in the world experiencing strong demand, a 50GW market next year would result in a polysilicon supply shortfall of a significant

40,000MT to 45,000MT, compared with a more manageable shortfall of around 11,000MT under Deutsche Bank’s global demand forecast of 45GW in 2014.

 

This would be terrific news for Chinese Poly producers such as GCL and DQ. SOL will benefit greatly as well.


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#2 explo

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 11:35 PM

Very byllish note by Vishal. He sees a doubled demand in China next year contributing to a strong global demand growth.
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#3 Pop2mollys

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 12:27 AM

15GW in china for 2014 is a game changer. Just between Japan and china alone demand will be pushing 30GW in 2014. As always this board is the trendsetter on expectations. We all knew these numbers were coming but now street is trying to play catch up. Going to see panic buying soon. Get your popcorn ready...
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#4 explo

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 01:05 AM

This is the first I've seen of this 15 gw expectation from DB. I mentioned in the Jinko strategy article here on SPVI some of the existing and rumoured additional policy incentives being mulled by the Chinese government that will create this huge and long-lived market. One of those rumours, the VAT rebate, became official yesterday. Next are cheap loans on long terms for PV plants. Our CN11s will benefit greatly from this strong demand at home.
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#5 eysteinh

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 01:21 AM

I am impressed by the fact we are several months in advance in news compared with "mainstreet." I mean we discussed the VAT in August...


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#6 forestg

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 04:42 AM

Deutsche Bank noted that should the 45GW global demand forecast for 2014 prove to be too conservative, due to other regions in the world experiencing strong demand, a 50GW market next year would result in a polysilicon supply shortfall of a significant

40,000MT to 45,000MT, compared with a more manageable shortfall of around 11,000MT under Deutsche Bank’s global demand forecast of 45GW in 2014.

 

With 45-50GW demand next year, IMO SOL becomes a $12-$15 stock. Poly demand could also become bad news for JKS and other companies that depend too much on spot prices for poly and wafers, and as their costs increase. So next year will be interesting. JMHO.


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#7 eysteinh

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 04:44 AM

Forestg in my oppinon if spot prices rice to 23$/kg that is 1 or 2 cents more for jks. I would not exactly call this bad news as they have allready stated they are further reducing processing costs. Ofcourse on the other hand if prices did rise to 35+ we would be talking. But I think this will not happen since there is far too much idle capacity at costs levels below this. Also if we indeed saw a polysilicon squeeze the margins for modules should also be higher. I am therefore not worried of that scenario for jks. I do however agree this would be positive for SOL and could mean sol is a good investment at current levels.


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#8 pg6solar

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 04:52 AM

With 45-50GW demand next year, IMO SOL becomes a $12-$15 stock. Poly demand could also become bad news for JKS and other companies that depend too much on spot prices for poly and wafers, and as their costs increase. So next year will be interesting. JMHO.

Taking a page from your "why you're not in YGE" book and if you truly believe in what you just stated, then I assume you're moving your JKS holdings to SOL today, correct?


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#9 forestg

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Posted 30 September 2013 - 04:54 AM

Taking a page from your "why you're not in YGE" book and if you truly believe in what you just stated, then I assume you're moving your JKS holdings to SOL today, correct?

 

Why? Are we at 50GW in 2014 yet? All in due time. BTW, China polysilicon keeps going and going ever higher...

http://www.sunsirs.c...detail-463.html


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