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Q3 SPVI Forum Portfolio- Members' choice

Lepv123

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1

Monday, May 20th 2013, 12:24pm

Pgsolar, any prediction for the upcoming earning's release in June?

Do you think it will take us to new highs, i.e. $10+? Man, JASO is rocking! Could this be the time for the gradual uptrend in solars? Thanks. Your inputs are always appreciated!

pg6solar

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 12:46pm

I would not look for JASO like ASPs from JKS. Unfortunately based on export data, unlike JASO, CSIQ and HSOL, JKS' Japan like (high ASPs) market exposure in Q1 is non-existent. I think Europe is still important for them with their Spanish sponsorship. I have a very large position and honestly hope to be completely wrong. I think its better to expect under performance and be pleasantly surprised (AKA a mini JASO) than the other way around (AKA SOL). Today's JASO performance showed what can happen with a small float stock (JKS is only about 60%) so any beat (IMO very unlikely) may result in extreme PPS appreciation. Personally, I would be looking for guidance going forward.

Lepv123

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3

Monday, May 20th 2013, 12:51pm

Pgsolar, thanks. Even with the cautionary view, is $10 still possible by year end assuming guidance will be decent?

pg6solar

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4

Monday, May 20th 2013, 12:56pm

I can not predict price, but it was already at $10 just three month ago based just on January rally effect and spot prices stabilization. If EU AD will result in no tariffs in early June, then I would expect a double of your target if not by YE then by February of next year for sure.

Lepv123

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5

Monday, May 20th 2013, 12:59pm

Thanks pg6solar!

odyd12

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6

Tuesday, May 21st 2013, 12:48pm

Hi Pg,
I got some JKS today. I read your notes on Q1 and do not disagree with most. I see however a lot more benefit to JKS in Q2. Japan 100MW, 115MW to SA, the US market as the company has a solution. Indian market as well. I am aware that you do not have GADP, but perhaps April would be a good place to start. Regardless trends, JKS offers 4% ASP trending, cannot explain more, revenue trending to export growth at 297% and shipment trending 282%.
Since the company has already lowest non-poly processing it would be hard to squeeze a penny out of it, but poly could be around 1 or maybe even two. Their poly intake is about 5 grams, which is again leading industry,
In few days I got worked up a bit on trading, so I get many ideas on fundamental impulse. However I chose to keep JKS and CSIQ until release. I also have TSL.

odyd12

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7

Tuesday, May 21st 2013, 1:05pm

One more thing. I discussed this on SOL thread and people mostly yawned. Inventory for JKS was $84M, those guys are running one of the best supply chains among any solar company. The will sell 50MW of more modules than JA and all from the Q1 production. Those are the most recent pricing modules. No reason (or should be) shrink the spread on GM.
Just last observation.

pg6solar

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8

Tuesday, May 21st 2013, 1:35pm

I will keep JKS until it hits about $20 at which point I will sell 50% (as you know not easy to sell/buy big blocks). Just a note: it is projected to loose ($1.1) in Q1 (on par with JASO) so any similar beat, fast (or even immediate ala JA) run to $15 is not out of realm of possibilities. My biggest regret is not loading up at $4 for all three (JKS/TSL/CSIQ). I know they were all at $2, but the way things were at the time, they might as well all have went under $1 (in which case JKS would have been a history) so averaging down was not an option at the time (preserving uninvested capital was).

odyd12

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9

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 6:45am

This company's engagement is also in Japan's market and should bring good figures in Q2.

I checked Jinko's reporting, did not notice any pre-announcements before,

odyd12

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10

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 7:55am

According to Jason JKS and YGE with the new rates proposed the other day rushing orders could becoming to those two. He thinks that both are most active in China.

Lepv123

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11

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 5:22pm

ODYD and PGSOLAR, do you guys think that JKS can exceed it's

historical profits in the future as solar energy will become more and more dominant?

odyd12

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12

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 5:30pm

I got kicked out from JKS today. I think they will do well in Q1. I am looking for more for myself from CSIQ.

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Lepv123

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13

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 6:44pm

Oh, you sold out of JKS?

Lepv123

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14

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 6:45pm

Although CSIQ at this price is a good entry. I think YGE as well considering how much it has retraced at least technically speaking.

odyd12

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15

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 7:42pm

I think JKS is a great stock when is moving up, but it is a beast when it comes down. I hit my stop.
I do not want to lose this time around, so I am more aggressive to protect some of that profit I made.
I bought some of CSIQ yesterday on a drop end, but it went down big on me from that buy. I am sitting on the average of 7 from average of 5.60. Still in the money, using my profits of course to make those buys. I got stung today on JKS so I am bitter a bit.

So bottom line for me holding TSL, just sitting on it. Hi priced purchase from a long time ago just waiting for better days.
I have 50% of my account in CSIQ and 50% in cash. as of now I have to see what will happen, but I am thinking buying would be prudent.
Look at the picks of Q2, CSIQ got 96% return since April 18th. Is profit in Q2 potential and good Q1 result worth $12?
I personally think so. Things here are that in 6 months stock would be too expensive to chase.
YGE is just no longer attraction to me. I will review after Q1 if I see anything I like.

Lepv123

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16

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 8:23pm

Thanks Odyd for your thoughts! I'm planning to hold onto my JKS and will add TSL and CSIQ soon.

ILOVEPV

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17

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 8:47pm

JMHO: from current prices I see the following stocks as prime picks in terms of percentage gain range within next 2-2.5 months:
SOL (80-120%)
CSIQ (60-80%)
JASO (50-100%)
TSL (35-60%)
HSOL (20-100% -the most unpredictable)
YGE (30-60%)
SPWR (25-35%)
WFR (20-25%)
FSLR (20-25%)
GTAT (25-40%)
Probably I'm too naive putting SOL on a first place again but it seems to me SOL is the most undervalued stock in the list. On a top of it SOL business model let it weather all the storms (tariffs and troubles around) with min loss.

Lepv123

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18

Wednesday, May 22nd 2013, 9:20pm

Why didn't you include JKS? And what's your projection on it?

Lepv123

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19

Tuesday, May 28th 2013, 7:14am

PGSOLAR and ODYD, do you guys think that JKS can report with

something to the effects of CSIQ? I do vaguely remember JKS CEO mentioning profitability within sight this year?

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