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eysteinh

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Saturday, April 13th 2013, 7:33am

Updated estimates for rec 2013 until q2 2014

REC ASP per quarter for modules:
q12013: 0,73 $ per watt
q22013: 0,74 $ per watt
q32013: 0,73 $ per watt
q42013: 0,72 $ per watt
q12014: 0,71 $ per watt
q22014: 0,70 $ per watt

Rec EBITDA cost per quarter (module cash cost +sg&a & r&d per watt):
q12013: 0,71 $ per watt (0,61 + 0,08) @ profit 2 cents per watt
q22013: 0,66 $ per watt (0,58 + 0,08) @ profit 8 cents per watt
q32013: 0,63 $ per watt (0,55 + 0,08) @ profit 10 cents per watt
q42013: 0,60 $ per watt (0,52 + 0,08) @ profit 12 cents per watt
q12014: 0,58 $ per watt (0,50 + 0,08) @ profit 15 cents per watt
q22014: 0,55 $ per watt (0,47 + 0,08) @ profit 15 cents per watt

REC MW shipments per quarter and EBITDA cashflow
q12013: 213 MW shipped @ 4,26 million $ profit
q22013: 213 MW shipped @ 17,04 million $ profit
q32013: 213 MW shipped @ 21,3 million $ profit
q42013: 213 MW shipped @ 25,56 million $ profit
q12014: 235 MW shipped @ 35,25 million $ profit
q22014: 235 MW shipped @ 35,25 million $ profit
Total 138,66 million $ ~ 794 million nok

REC ASP per quarter for fbr polysilicon:
q12013: 17,29 $ per kg
q22013: 19,00 $ per kg
q32013: 19,00 $ per kg
q42013: 23,00 $ per kg
q12014: 23,00 $ per kg
q22014: 23,00 $ per kg

REC FBR EBITDA cost per quarter (polysilicon cash cost + sg&a & r&d per kg)
q12013: 15 $ per kg (12,0 + 3) @ profit 2,29 $ per kg
q22013: 14,5 $ per watt (11,5 + 3) @ profit 4,5 $ per kg
q32013: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 5 $ per kg
q42013: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 9 $ per kg
q12014: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 9 $ per kg
q22014: 14 $ per watt (11,5 + 2,5) @ profit 9 $ per kg

REC FBR MT shipments per quarter and EBITDA cashflow
q12013: 4125 MT shipped @ 9,45 million $ profit
q22013: 4125 MT shipped @ 18,57 million $ profit
q32013: 4125 MT shipped @ 20,63 million $ profit
q42013: 4125 MT shipped @ 37,13million $ profit
q12014: 4125 MT shipped @ 37,13 million $ profit
q22014: 4125 MT shipped @ 37,13 million $ profit
Total 160,04 million $ ~ 917 million nok
Float zone, Electronic grade, simens sg, off spec and silane gass sales:
Total cash flow profit from these volumes has varied between 80-150 million nok in the last quarters. In q1 rec recived 27 million $ (155 mil nok) compensation for a silane gas contract. I expect the cashflow from these products to be around 55,72 million nok (10 million $) giving a total of 27 + 60 = 87 million $ during the next 6 quarters. ( 498 million nok positive cashflow.) In additional there could be a potential cash flow of 16 million $ from a tax settlement (not added in the calculations here) source: http://www.columbiabasinherald.com/polit…a.html?mode=jqm

Total all cashflow: 385,7 million $ ~ 2209 million nok.

Capex estimated for period 2013: 66 million $. 2014 q1-q2: 37 mil $. Total: 103 mil $ ~ 590 mil nok.

Interest rate for period 2013: 60 million $. 2014 q1-q2: 30 mil $. Total: 90 mil $ ~ 515 mil nok.

Profit before taxes: 192,7 mil $ ~ 1104 mil nok.

With the general assembly they will have the ability for 10% convertible loans (about 200-300 mil nok) and 10% share issues (about 200-300 mil nok). This should be enough when you realize they have around 1.9 billion nok in cash / cash equivalents and they will get income of 1.1 billion nok. The debt maturing in q2 2014 is around 3.1 billion nok.

redsolar

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Saturday, April 13th 2013, 8:40am

Is there a way to buy REC on US markets?

eysteinh

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Saturday, April 13th 2013, 9:15am

As of now. Nope. It is listed on the oslo stock exchange.

Boss

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Saturday, April 13th 2013, 3:59pm

Eystein

how do you know that REC can sell poly at $23 in 2014?????

eysteinh

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Saturday, April 13th 2013, 5:16pm

Boss I base myself on among other things research done by The NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory (in Solar EnergyMaterials&SolarCells114(2013)110–135 ) this is the minimum sustainable cost if one assumes that fbr will in the world average increase to around 20% production. Keep also in mind well respected researchers like bernreuter has claimed polysilicon prices can increase to around 25$/kg. " The market research firm forecasted that PV installations could reach between 35GW and 37GW in 2013, driving renewed polysilicon demand that could push polysilicon spot prices to between US$20/kg and US$25/kg by the end of 2013.""http://www.pv-tech.org/friday_focus/what_next_after_the_polysilicon_apocalypse_of_2012

Also if you know chinese there is an interesting article here: http://dp.solarmediastore.com/i/113686

Finally one might want to take a closer look at tier 1 capacity in china with production costs under 20$/kg and find that this is around 17.6 GW (at 5.8 gram per watt average) while production levels are far above this. Given tariffs or just plain demand then costs should increase. I believe 23$/kg is a bare minimum. Ironically some of the analytical numbers I have read is not well updated. For example REC is reported with 21500 MT while they now only are using fbr solar grade + simens eg / fz so they are currently only doing 20000 MT.

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "eysteinh" (Apr 13th 2013, 6:08pm)


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