You are not logged in.

larryvand

Professional

  • "larryvand" started this thread

Posts: 582

Date of registration: Jan 2nd 2013

Thanks: 26

  • Send private message

1

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 9:41am

Does anyone know who it was that dramatically lowered CSIQ estimates?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=CSIQ+Analyst+Estimates

Estimates for 2013 went from a profit of $1.15 30 days ago to a loss of 1.20.
Q1 went from -25c to -78c and Q2 went from -3c to -29c.

Since there are only 2-3 analysts who follow CSIQ, does anyone know who it was? As a person long CSIQ I would like to know his logic. Thanks.

chrisceeaustin

Beginner

Posts: 39

Date of registration: Mar 23rd 2013

Thanks: 2

  • Send private message

2

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 10:04am

crazy

Perhaps the estimates were too high for 2013, but to make them negative???? Crazy.

And to LOWER Q2 is super crazy.

To lower Q1 is slightly less crazy.

champeen

Beginner

Posts: 1

Date of registration: Apr 3rd 2013

  • Send private message

3

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 11:01am

Has ODYD posted his estimate for CSIQ by chance?

Everyone seems very bullish on CSIQ. Are they the unanimous #1 choice out of the chinese solars?

I currently am only holding FSLR. If CSIQ is modeling after FSLR (projects/EPC) then they will be the king of the chinese solars. No money in modules, its in the projects.

Wondering what the unanimous EPS estimates for this year (quarter by quarter estimates would be great), and if most people believe they will be the most successful of the chinese solars.

luckygoose

Beginner

Posts: 17

Date of registration: Dec 20th 2012

Thanks: 1

  • Send private message

4

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 11:05am

Larryvand,

It is so abvious again. You are not long in CSIQ my friend. This is again a way for you to try to bring negative news about CSIQ in a way so that not everybody will come with complaining replies. You also used your info in your other post about losses over the whole of 2013.

I would say stick to your fine SOL stock which you so strongly advised for everybody to buy at earning day. We saw and are seeing how that turns out.

I will promise you that CSIQ will make a profit during 2013 starting in Q2/Q3. During the next earnings report beginning May CSIQ will state this to the market and that will be the beginning of the end of manipulating the CSIQ stock. As a lot of other suppliers prefer volume above profit the market will be playing with their stocks for a long time.

In the next two quaters it will be time to separate a good management from the bad.

Luckygoose

1 registered user thanked already.

Users who thanked for this post:

MichaelZhao

larryvand

Professional

  • "larryvand" started this thread

Posts: 582

Date of registration: Jan 2nd 2013

Thanks: 26

  • Send private message

5

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 11:13am

So, do you have the name of the analyst? Wouldn't you like to know why someone thinks that CSIQ will lose $1.20 in 2013?

BTW, maybe you haven't noticed but all the Chinese solars are below their 200 SMA.

Posts: 47

Date of registration: Jan 17th 2013

  • Send private message

6

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 11:36am

Guys, stop complaining. Don't you see all your favorite Chinese solars are down? They will rise one day. Today is not the day...

Pop2mollys

Professional

Posts: 679

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 54

  • Send private message

7

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 11:36am

I wouldn't pay attention to estimates on Yahoo, they are always way off. Also all the analyst track records are absolutely horrible with solars over past 5 years..... That's is simply a fact and I'm sure everyone will back me up on that,

I like CSIQ even though I don't own any.... Both CSiQ and SOL have a very good shot of being profitable by Q3.... With some luck might even see slight profitability in Q2 with either of these 2. YGE could sneak a profit in by Q4 but should be solid in 2014.

I'm going to say it again load all you can at these levels with top 3-4 solars, don't worry about short term moves and you will be rewarded big time soon

acshen

Beginner

Posts: 8

Date of registration: Apr 3rd 2013

  • Send private message

8

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 12:07pm

thinly veiled CSIQ bashing when all solars are being crushed

patchi

Beginner

Posts: 6

Date of registration: Mar 22nd 2013

  • Send private message

9

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 1:02pm

I wouldn't pay attention to estimates on Yahoo, they are always way off. Also all the analyst track records are absolutely horrible with solars over past 5 years..... That's is simply a fact and I'm sure everyone will back me up on that,

I like CSIQ even though I don't own any.... Both CSiQ and SOL have a very good shot of being profitable by Q3.... With some luck might even see slight profitability in Q2 with either of these 2. YGE could sneak a profit in by Q4 but should be solid in 2014.

I'm going to say it again load all you can at these levels with top 3-4 solars, don't worry about short term moves and you will be rewarded big time soon


You're right...analysts have been way off. Unfortunately for CSIQ they have a history of underperforming and booking losses that are worse than analysts predicted. Perhaps they know something we don't?

ILOVEPV

Intermediate

Posts: 205

Date of registration: Jan 28th 2013

Thanks: 6

  • Send private message

10

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 1:09pm

I can not agree with you pop2mollys. When I did DD regarding Chi solars I read of a lot of analyst reports. Several of them were more right than somebody else predicting an oversupply glut. At the time they wrote this stuff TSL was in 20s , SOL and LDK around 10, etc. We know they were right. I do not want to say they are right again but even though they are right a current share prices reflect the worst case scenario anyway.

Pop2mollys

Professional

Posts: 679

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Thanks: 54

  • Send private message

11

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 1:13pm

I can not agree with you pop2mollys. When I did DD regarding Chi solars I read of a lot of analyst reports. Several of them were more right than somebody else predicting an oversupply glut. At the time they wrote this stuff TSL was in 20s , SOL and LDK around 10, etc. We know they were right. I do not want to say they are right again but even though they are right a current share prices reflect the worst case scenario anyway.



If you crosscheck in last couple years upgrade and downgrades with specific market action I can tell you that well over 50% of time of you took the contrarion view you came out on top.

larryvand

Professional

  • "larryvand" started this thread

Posts: 582

Date of registration: Jan 2nd 2013

Thanks: 26

  • Send private message

12

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 1:30pm

patchi, If you look at all the Chinese solars, analysts were too bullish for their estimates. Actual estimates have been well below where analysts expected them to be.

ILOVEPV

Intermediate

Posts: 205

Date of registration: Jan 28th 2013

Thanks: 6

  • Send private message

13

Wednesday, April 3rd 2013, 1:33pm

I believe what you said, nevertheless my note does not regard to an immediate market reaction to upgrade/downgrade action, but rather a more or less extended trend happened upon overcapacity reports hit a wire. If we want to make money we should not close eyes on reality and be weighted in our judgement. To be fair I have to state that analyst's reports and upgrade/downgrade action ALWAYS come AFTER stocks lost/gained substantially in information vacuum and they always designed to JUSTIFY a previous action. On the other hand being in conversation with solar PV analyst I understood that he (and his colleagues) made a job PRIOR a market action happened but their bosses do not let them make it public on a timely basis.

patchi

Beginner

Posts: 6

Date of registration: Mar 22nd 2013

  • Send private message

14

Thursday, April 4th 2013, 5:46am

So, has anyone figured out the name of the analyst?

Social bookmarks

New Member

Antaisolar(Today, 7:13pm)

Zuid(Today, 11:25am)

AdamRamsay2009(Today, 3:43am)

so-so-solar(Yesterday, 11:34pm)

sunnydaze(Apr 11th 2013, 2:38pm)

Statistic

  • Members: 83
  • Threads: 918
  • Postings: 6,060 (ø 30.76/day)
  • Greetings to our newest member: Antaisolar

.