OCI Cancels 1.5 Tril. Won Polysilicon Supply Contracts to China's Suntech

Pop2mollys

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Sunday, April 28th 2013, 6:19pm

OCI Cancels 1.5 Tril. Won Polysilicon Supply Contracts to China's Suntech

Hey Gordo you still think STP capacity not coming offline?

http://english.hankyung.com/news/apps/ne…201304270828281

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chrisceeaustin

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Sunday, April 28th 2013, 9:16pm

Project developers will benefit the most as STP's GSF screeches to a halt, hopefully. They were a developer, they were bankable, etc. Now, not so much.

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odyd12

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Sunday, April 28th 2013, 10:55pm

looks like another reason for poly to stay low priced. No capacity, no sales, and this is why we like it for those who stay in business.

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Pop2mollys

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Sunday, April 28th 2013, 11:50pm

Quoted from "odyd12"

looks like another reason for poly to stay low priced. No capacity, no sales, and this is why we like it for those who stay in business.

Demand is not changing because of STP problems. Whoever steps in and takes the future business STP would have had will end up using that same amount of poly in producing modules. So my point is as some contracts are canceled from those companies being downsized new poly orders will increase from those taking the new available market share.

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Klothilde

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Sunday, April 28th 2013, 11:55pm

Demand for poly is increasing faster than supply, so guess where prices are heading. Imvho of course.

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odyd12

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Monday, April 29th 2013, 7:27am

Based on those two responses a hypothetical question:
Will less downstream manufacturing starting with wafer, create issues for polysilicon overcapacity?
I personally thought it would

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mena

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Monday, April 29th 2013, 9:07am

Considering how many of the tier1-2 are running their plants with reduced capacity I would think its pretty easy to pick up the leftover demand from Suntech. Just look at Renesola with is agressive module guidence bow their own capacity.

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Pop2mollys

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Monday, April 29th 2013, 9:16am

Quoted from "odyd12"

Based on those two responses a hypothetical question:
Will less downstream manufacturing starting with wafer, create issues for polysilicon overcapacity?
I personally thought it would

Where are you getting less downstream manufacturing from?

The demand is surging, not shrinking because of STP losing capacity and business. To me it's a simple rotation of business from STP to the like of YGE, CSIQ, TSL and SOL. The only way this news puts more poly on market it is thin film picks up the business which I think we can agree is not the case.

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odyd12

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Monday, April 29th 2013, 11:51am

The demand for final product is, but the polyslicon has been already bought, contracted for the 2013 movement.
So OCI, which was running until February at 50%, stopped sending poly to Suntech, will send this poly where?

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cfeng

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Monday, April 29th 2013, 12:59pm

How much poly OCI was sending to STP in Jan or Feb? Considering that STP shrunk their output considerably, I doubt it was very much if any. I would think that OCI was even demanding cash payments from STP for months now. OCI just told the world today what happened months ago.

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greensolar

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Monday, April 29th 2013, 1:07pm

the contract was worth $1.3billion with OCI according to this article.... http://qz.com/79379/suntech-breaks-1-3-b…r-solar-panels/

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Pop2mollys

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Monday, April 29th 2013, 2:45pm

Like I said demand is not effected because STP is downsizing. Someone else will get the contracts which STP planned to have and will need to order more poly whether it comes from OCI or someone else I'm not sure all I know is whoever a gets STP customers will need to order additional poly in production of modules. The poly equilibrium is not effected by STP cancellation, it will just be picked up by different tier 1 producer which takes over their business.

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littleguyintucson

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Monday, April 29th 2013, 3:38pm

Quoted from "mena"

I would think its pretty easy to pick up the leftover demand from Suntech.

The way I see it is of ODYD is accurate and OCI is at 50% capacity, there is also another 5.5-6GW of capacity coming on line in the next 3 to 6 months. This will be the rampup of SOL that was basically shut down for the last 6 months for upgrades and expansion and LDK that will be ramping as well. That 5-6GW is in addition to the current over capacity that has existed and is equal to half of the GCL capacity.

While LDK capacity as financed does not appear to be cost competative, with various asset adjustments, it could be on par with the other manufactures as far as loaded costs and cash costs should be competative as well.

What is demand to increase 7GW over 2012?