Debt hard to get and that is problem for Bloomberg

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 1,886

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: CSIQ, TSL

Thanks: 261

Tuesday, April 2nd 2013, 6:25am

Debt hard to get and that is problem for Bloomberg

Good Morning Bloomberg, let's make the positive look bad
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-02…html?cmpid=yhoo

Go to the top of the page

Djovanny

Trainee

Posts: 74

Date of registration: Mar 4th 2013

Stock Positions: None

Thanks: 1

Tuesday, April 2nd 2013, 6:53am

How is thet positive? If china 9 will not be able to get money they are dead only tsl csiq and may be jaso has cash

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 1,886

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: CSIQ, TSL

Thanks: 261

Tuesday, April 2nd 2013, 7:08am

“Obtaining credit facilities will be harder as everyone
thinks more carefully,” Yingli’s Li said in a March 28
telephone interview. “Expansion will slow down in the industry
to ease oversupply. It will also spur industry consolidation, so
it’s a good thing in the long run.”

How is a consolidation going to ever work if something is not being stopped, like in this case access to debt?

To me it is positive because none of them have necessarily a need of borrowing. They operate based on positive cash flows.
However vast majority of what is in China does not. It is supported in many ways by local banks, governments etc.
My analysis points that US-listed companies are best candidates to survive this. Suntech's collapse is not because they could not paid the bond. They could not paid the bond because the bond collateral for GSF was a fake. If this was in place, we would not be talking about today. However these are ups and downs of business and preparation of doing business.

Go to the top of the page

Djovanny

Trainee

Posts: 74

Date of registration: Mar 4th 2013

Stock Positions: None

Thanks: 1

Tuesday, April 2nd 2013, 7:23am

Thank you Odyd . I do understand how good the news are in general for speed up consolidation process however bloomberg has a point : not all solar are healthy and investing in them right now is not safe ppl has to see first who will be out . I have position in tsl .right now i see this company has not bad chance to be a winner , and i m watching csiq

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "Djovanny" (Apr 2nd 2013, 7:28am)

Go to the top of the page

spinvestor

Beginner

Posts: 25

Date of registration: Nov 18th 2012

Stock Positions: TSL, SOL, CSIQ, JKS

Thanks: 3

Tuesday, April 2nd 2013, 7:41am

Odyd - Is there anywhere on your website where we can see Debt Schedules for all of the Chinese module suppliers (both US listed and non US listed)?

I think it would be interesting to do a cashflow analysis to see how many suppliers will need financing over the next few months (we will be also be able to see the current capacity associated with those players). Outside of a few of the Tier 1 suppliers, I suspect utilization has come down significantly for many Chinese suppliers and they are not generating the cashflows necessary to meet current obligations.

Go to the top of the page

odyd12

Administrator

Posts: 1,886

Date of registration: Jan 3rd 2013

Stock Positions: Long: CSIQ, TSL

Thanks: 261

Tuesday, April 2nd 2013, 7:57am

No, I do not have it at this point. However two companies retire their converts this year JASO in May and TSL in July. Both are solid to do so. Another way to look at is to look at short term and long term debt, first being under a year. Both of those are renewed constantly.
We should see cash flow analysis for TSL, JASO, YGE with their annual reports,
In regard of the suppliers only ones listed and releasing cash flow statements will be of interest.
Limited access to debt is a good thing, it promotes big, global companies. Suntech is a disgrace, I doubt that China will allow anything like that happen again.

Go to the top of the page

larryvand

Unregistered

Tuesday, April 2nd 2013, 8:00am

GCL has $2.5 billion debt due within one year.

"The Group suffered losses of HK$3,385 million from operations for the year ended 31 December 2012 and as of 31 December 2012, the Group has current liabilities exceeded its current assets by HK$8,270 million. As of the same day, the Group had cash and cash equivalents of HK$4,496 million with bank borrowings due within one year of HK$19,705 million."

1 HK$ = 0.13 US$

so HK$ 19,705 mil = US$ 2.562 billion debt due within a year. They have cash and cash equivalents of HK$ 4,496 mil = US$ 585 million

http://www.gcl-poly.com.hk/uploadfiles/b…_MNaikievka.pdf