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Pop2mollys

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21

Monday, May 6th 2013, 4:51pm

My point is you have to take into account current valuations vs. the dynamic shift in the solar landscape. Fundamentally there is a dynamic shift underway from huge losses in 2012 to top companies posting profits by mid part of this year. Capacity is being taken offline all while demand is ramping. During the slowest part of year you have ASP stabilizing and even reversing.

My point is valuations are far too depressed and have not yet reflected the the fast changing dynamic in industry. But this is about to change. don't be surprised to see 100% 1 week moves in some names, to give LDK a higher market cap than SOL is absolutely ridiculous

littleguyintucson

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Monday, May 6th 2013, 7:36pm

My point is valuations are far too depressed and have not yet reflected the the fast changing dynamic in industry



This is interpretive. Some might think they are overvalued. I do not know what you place for a value on a dynamic commodities business but I smack a 6 to 8 PE and so does most of wallstreet with 10 to 12 during forward looking bull periods. You may believe the dynamics are changing fast but you are in the 3rd quarter of fundamental changes with another 2 or 3 before stabilization(counting Q2). People have talked about the cost cutting on processing and ASP convergence since early 2012. some even earlier. To me Q3/Q4 is a slow long dig out with lots of idle capacity around for those that my want to fire back up and enter again if gross margins rebound to the $0.20 range. This should opress any meaningfull long term ASP rebounds.

Once profitable returns, then the repair of the balance sheet remains. Certain companies have a long way to go to repair the balance sheet as there is lots and I mean lots of hidden debt that needs to be fed back through the supply chain in the repairing of the balance sheets. This from even the best ran companies.

Pop2mollys

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23

Monday, May 6th 2013, 7:43pm

To each is own. Our different opinions is what makes the market a wonderful place. Since you don't own any solars I'm guessing you are short or hoping to get in lower.

odyd12

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24

Yesterday, 1:29am

Solarzoom version of things in Q1, some of the data slip outs included
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20130507/432880-3.shtml

littleguyintucson

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25

Yesterday, 8:31am

Point Counter point

http://solartribune.com/report-global-pv…ity-2013-04-10/

odyd12

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26

Yesterday, 8:36am

This cannot be a counter point. Exports are up 66%, no word about China's demand was said in the article titled "Chinese Solar Module Exports Show Record Growth During Q1 2013". It was a view on the revenue shift, and larger , a lot larger exports globally. China will be small in Q1, but Q2 will have a lot of activity.

littleguyintucson

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27

Yesterday, 9:15am

Your right Odyd, I just read into the post and the article and the views of others that things are exploding globally and chances for blowouts are high in Q1. Thus my counter point was to how I perceived the articles and threads I have read recently and perceived intents of the posts.

The link I posted suggested that shipments in general globally are down very significantly in Q1 over Q4 which is actually more in line with how many of the companies actually guided Q1. It suggests nothing for Q2 or the rest of the year.

I will state a 6.2GW for Q1 is soft for those looking at 40GW for the year. A 15% quarter over quarter growth would peg things at 31GW or 1 GW off Solar Buz estimates. A 20% quarter over quarter growth would peg just under 34GW. The 20% growth rate is down 25% from what some on these boards suggest as expected shipments. I believe even yourself have suggested 37GW?

This just points to downside risks on some expectations with limited if any to upside expectations for anyone expecting 37-41GW.

odyd12

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28

Yesterday, 10:34am

Have a look at view if you have not so, also by Solarbuzz. There is a movement in deliveries, which they call shipments here, and it is high level
http://www.solarbuzz.com/tw/news/recent-…ket-share-q1-13

littleguyintucson

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29

Yesterday, 11:21am

Solarzoom version of things in Q1, some of the data slip outs included
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20130507/432880-3.shtml



Here is an interesting recent article regarding Chinese export data and fraudulent reporting

http://ntdtv.org/en/news/china/2013-05-0…t-figures-.html

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odyd12

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30

Yesterday, 11:31am

Of course, I should have known, this is what they have done. LOL

cfeng

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31

Yesterday, 11:37am

littleguyintucson,
That news item from ntdv.org has very little to do with solar. In fact solar is not even mentioned.That's the kind of posts that I would expect from short bashers. They post post some generic bearish news and hope nobody notices.

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