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singular

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 4:45pm

Odyd's Latest Article on Seeking Alpha

Just came out. Nice Article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1403971-…13?source=yahoo

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greensolar, uchsteve, outsmart

jamiecc

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 5:57pm

They will have to trot somebody out on CNBC tommorrow to try and squash these numbers! The future sure seems bright. :)

Boss

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 6:18pm

Nice article Odyd. Q1 is looking good!!!!!!!!!!!!

odyd12

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 10:06pm

I am positively surprised.
I hope it will not be taken off, tomorrow.

odyd12

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 10:21pm

If you guys can make comments it would be great, I think comments make the radar for them. Ironically the search engines have not picked up the article even with links to Yahoo Finance. I have never seen this. Try it, type Renesola or Trina under news and 24 and nothing. Crazy

Pop2mollys

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 10:24pm

Odyd I was on google search of "china solar" and it was the first article posted.... That was when I linked article earlier tonight.


Anyways thanks for a great article... Well done sir...

Search "china solar" last 24 hours and it's second article on first page


http://www.google.com/search?q=Solar+chi…iw=1024&bih=690

odyd12

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 10:30pm

Nothing here, I hope it is my region only.

Pop2mollys

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 10:45pm

I'm in NYC and it pops up on first page of google.... Both a link to this board showing article and also the direct link to seeking alpha article....

Paybak66

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 10:58pm

Great article, Odyd.

When I googled it here in the Portland, Oregon market, the link showed up on the first page - albeit beneath the articles about the EU tariff issue. (of course....).

Pop2mollys

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 11:00pm

It's also nice you show some love towards Solarzoom.... It "scratches their back" a lil bit

odyd12

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 11:02pm

I think you guys are speaking of web, if you do news search you see nothing. Normally SA shows since Yahoo Finance links the articles.

Paybak66

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Sunday, May 5th 2013, 11:17pm

In the "rock, paper, scissors" game of solar sector media coverage, lets hope that Odyds article on Q1 results is the "paper" that helps cover the "rock" that is the recent EU tariff article.

littleguyintucson

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Yesterday, 8:03am

I think you guys are speaking of web, if you do news search you see nothing. Normally SA shows since Yahoo Finance links the articles.


I read the article first thing this morning. I was made aware of it by the yahoo finance web page for my solar portfolio I track. The link was for TSL JKS SOL and CSIQ tags and it was posted Sunday 6:20AM

I

odyd12

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Yesterday, 10:57am

Another positive article published here, SA is turning a new leaf
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1405681-…ks?source=yahoo

odyd12

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Yesterday, 11:26am

BTW, littleguy the data is not 5 months old. Data in the review is from January to March, which means information in our possession pertains to quarter, without reporting yet. The article is reflection of data from Q4 and actual results compared and applying this model to Q1 data and guidance. Yes, you can predict future based on this. This is how you do it.
You look at conditions, managing each quarter in the past and you compare points of behavior. if you see a variable you try to identify causes. The exercise here delivered very good view of deliveries. Those who bought data understand a lot more about what is happened in Q1 than anyone on the market, exception of course for those who buy info elsewhere IHS, Solarbuzz etc.
The one thing which is a debate right now is ASP (actual) versus declared. The declaration I am looking....well I will pick this thought up in Global ASP buyers forum
cheers

Pop2mollys

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Yesterday, 12:09pm

Another positive article published here, SA is turning a new leaf
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1405681-…ks?source=yahoo



It's really nice to see some positive articles after months of continuos bashing.... Over and over again. With high short interest moves could be fas and furious on any hint of good news

littleguyintucson

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Yesterday, 12:26pm

BTW, littleguy the data is not 5 months old. Data in the review is from January to March, which means information in our possession pertains to quarter, without reporting yet.



Yes I stand corrected. January data is 4 months past not 5 and the 3-5 month is 1 to 4 months. The counter arguments I made and opened the premiss with the word "tempered" as to not imply over exuberance. It is that there are ways to determine shipments and one can read in directions that one may want to see.

I gave an alternative view of SOL based on guidance using their supplied data that actually co oberated your data suggesting that they are well positioned to meet their guidance. That is good since TSL and YGE and most others have missed most of their guidance for the past 2 years. I left out other parts of analysis since my counter point was tempered vs what I read as the tone of the comments for the article as over exuberance and holey cow they posted a positive article.

Yes there are numbers that can suggest higher ranges from their guidance that if you look at could indicate higher than guided shipments by as much as 20%. That would be a "blowout" on shipments in my opinion. That would be tempered with minimal fundamental profit improvement an extra 30MW sold is only $2M in gross at 10% GM. the "Blowout" of 20% would imply an extra $4M in gross profit. That $4M while positive improvements in fundamentals, does little to alleviate the profit shortfall from operations of some $15M in Q1. It also does little for Q2 outside of adding potentially 1% more in margins for Q2 expectations due to inventory turnover and setting a base for increased shipments over Q1.

What is key moving forward is ASP balanced by volume shipments. While some trends on ASP are slightly positive, the solar co's are near the bottom of their processing cost improvements and for the most part may have negative impacts on other costs this year that would temper the gross margin improvements. SOL could pay higher Cell tolling. The outsourcing of wafers may be costlier as is the 3rd party Poly they require and for that matter most all require. ,CSIQ may have to pay more for wafers and Cells and Poly as well.

All speculation, absolutely, founded in data, absolutely, founded in market dynamics, absolutely, factual yes much of the input data and dynamics presented are factual.

odyd12

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Yesterday, 12:30pm

Yes there are numbers that can suggest higher ranges from their guidance that if you look at could indicate higher than guided shipments by as much as 20%.
Export data, by nature does not include Chinese volume. Cheers.

Pop2mollys

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Yesterday, 12:37pm

Twiheadedsnake....


Keep in mind they have priced SOL at bankruptcy levels. It still trading under 2 bucks a share yet we are seeing a fundamental shift occurring right before our very eyes and this export data backs it up. Shipments show blowout Q and margins are improving which will keep increasing gross profit. To overlook this while the company is at such depressed levels is a huge mistake.

You haven't even seen ASP data for 1st Q.... But I will keep my comments to myself about this as only a couple of people have purchased data.

littleguyintucson

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Yesterday, 4:37pm

Shipments show blowout Q and margins are improving which will keep increasing gross profit.


Pops, I guess we have differences in definitions and when it is proper to use certain terms.

I do not believe in blowouts unless earnings are positive. One can increase shipments from 300 to 330 or even 360MW, however if the difference is a loss of $20M vs a loss of $16M, then there is no blowout, just improvements over expectations. When companies start reporting profits that are 15-20% above expected positive profits, then I might consider using the term of blowouts as reasonable. But I would not consider expectations of $0.05 and they make $0.08 as a blowout as that would not be significant for say a JKS or a CSIQ with limited shares outstanding.

As for Q1 goes, most these companies gave guidance within a week or 2 of the end of the quarter and several even after the quarter ended. CSIQ gave their guidance with 3 weeks left and as such has more room for tolerance if you forecast probabilities. As for wondering about ASP, for Q1, I did not see any significant increase in CSIQ guidance for margins. Therefore one can conclude for Q1, that ASP is likely relatively inline with expectations. A $0.57 blended cost would have a 5.7 cent increase and an ASP in the $0.63 range if you believe their stated production costs. A move of ½ a percent off of midrange margins is not significant nor does it show any noticeable upside in Q1 for margins.

Q2 on the other hand has shown some slight increases in certain regions and some shipment growth in other regions that could have minor upside. However the downside is that Poly has shown during this span an increase in costs as well that may offset some of the gains.

As for being caught with pants down with respect to profitability, I follow solar, I understand the costs, the pricing, the regional variances and volume upsides and ASP variances so do not worry about me.

By the way, you did listen to CSIQ Q4 con call correct? To quote Seeking Alpha transcript,

“And as the quarter -- as the year goes on, there's better and better visibility for the profitability. And if everything goes our way, yes, we have a good chance for Q2.”

So if Wall Street listened to the con call, they heard the same comments. Wether they believe them or not is a different point. But hey do have supportive information regarding CSIQ business model being along the lines of SPWR and FSLR the 2 profitable companies to date, just CSIQ as stated is late Q3 or Q4 for some of the projects to be cashed in, while others will be incremental reporting.

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