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Q3 SPVI Forum Portfolio- Members' choice

greensolar

Professional

  • "greensolar" started this thread

Posts: 375

Date of registration: Sep 30th 2012

Stock Positions: SOL

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1

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 6:39am

Sell Canadian Solar After Recent Earnings

OXEN group back http://seekingalpha.com/article/1469951-…rce=google_news

spiritcraft

Intermediate

Posts: 381

Date of registration: Dec 11th 2012

Stock Positions: TSL, CSIQ, SOL

Thanks: 19

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2

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 6:44am

"Now that these subsidies have mostly stopped existing, the solar sector is in trouble." This statement shows pure ignorance and alone renders the entire piece as suspect. The author is not doing the slightest bit of homework and spewing out blather that belonged to 2010 or something.

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Klothilde

Unregistered

3

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 6:53am

Just count the times the word "project" appears in that article: zero. So this is pure garbage.

cfeng

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Posts: 624

Date of registration: Apr 25th 2013

Stock Positions: SPWR SOL JKS

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4

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 6:56am

Klothilde,
Why don't you buy CSIQ? You seem to like it. JASO too.

spiritcraft

Intermediate

Posts: 381

Date of registration: Dec 11th 2012

Stock Positions: TSL, CSIQ, SOL

Thanks: 19

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5

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 6:57am

Excellent point Klothilde. Congrats on the GS rec today.

explo

Master

Posts: 1,800

Date of registration: Sep 29th 2012

Stock Positions: SOL, JASO, JKS

Thanks: 156

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6

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 6:59am

We are recommending selling CSIQ if you currently own on recent gains,
as we believe those gains should evaporate as more individuals begin to
see that most of CSIQ's success was not from business success.

The author base this on that they had one-time charges in Q4 result in 100m loss there reversing into one-gains in Q1 taking loss down from mid 30m to around 5m and stock holders would sell when they realize this. Like there really would be someone not aware of the one-time effect.

The whole pack is the same after adjusting for one-offs. The small suit ones lose 30-40m per Q and the big suit ones (TSL, YGE and unmentionables like LDK and STP) lose 50-100m per Q under current conditions. Canadian still have their project business to add to the results.

nanofrogfish_spf

Intermediate

Posts: 392

Date of registration: Nov 8th 2012

Stock Positions: None

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7

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 7:07am

LOL!...the Oxen Group is BACK! The shorts are loaded, now time to try and work the stock back down. Maybe this used to work back in the Yahoo only days with very low trading volume and prices...but it won't work now that we have this forum and much higher volumes and prices...they're just a drop in the pond right now.

I did not, and will not, click on that link...based on the pure garbage of the last couple they tried last year.

And I think Win dug up that they were some 3-man strong shortie outfit...and could be working out of the basement of one...wonder if any of them have visited here?

Pop2mollys

Master

Posts: 1,413

Date of registration: Jan 15th 2013

Stock Positions: 100% CSIQ reloaded

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8

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 7:07am

Look like a rookie short got caught in a bad trade and now he is posting garbage to try to save himself.... Oooops
FAIL....

Klothilde

Unregistered

9

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 7:29am

Klothilde,
Why don't you buy CSIQ? You seem to like it. JASO too.


I'm focused on the long-term, and don't see CSIQ as a long-term play. They will earn some good profits from their current project pipeline, but possibilities for new attractive projects are on a steep decline as FITs get lowered or replaced by bidding systems. First clouds on the horizon are the apparent lack of new CSIQ projects in Canada and the limited GM in US. Japan is imo the very last opportunity to capitalize on crazy high FITs, but once that's done the project business essentially sours.

JASO with their tech edge & low cost is more my cup of tea even if the profit profile will probably be not as bombastic as CSIQ's over the next quarters. However I prefer sustainability over boom and bust.

spiritcraft

Intermediate

Posts: 381

Date of registration: Dec 11th 2012

Stock Positions: TSL, CSIQ, SOL

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10

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 8:06am

And I think Win dug up that they were some 3-man strong shortie outfit...and could be working out of the basement of one...wonder if any of them have visited here?


I hope they have to jump out of that basement window soon... :)

luckygoose

Trainee

Posts: 109

Date of registration: Dec 20th 2012

Stock Positions: CSIQ

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11

Thursday, May 30th 2013, 9:40am

LOL!...the Oxen Group is BACK! The shorts are loaded, now time to try and work the stock back down. Maybe this used to work back in the Yahoo only days with very low trading volume and prices...but it won't work now that we have this forum and much higher volumes and prices...they're just a drop in the pond right now.

I did not, and will not, click on that link...based on the pure garbage of the last couple they tried last year.

And I think Win dug up that they were some 3-man strong shortie outfit...and could be working out of the basement of one...wonder if any of them have visited here?

Dear Nano,

I totally agree with you. It is obvious that a large player took a position on a lower share price than current level. Every effort is done to avoid a further rise of the stock. Since the ER more than 50% of the total free float has been traded above the 9 USD price; this without any increase in the share-price. Every spike is countered within seconds also today (look at the chart). The problem for them is now that nobody is willing to sell on lower levels. The pressure to go up is again there today from an unforeseen angle like an positive view on the sector by Goldmann. Let's hope the buying pressure stays and that we brake the convindence or funds of the player involved. We could really see an explosion when that happens.

Luckygoose

Klothilde

Unregistered

12

Friday, May 31st 2013, 1:43am


The improvement from negative 5% to postive 6% GM from Q4 to Q1 was impressive, but I have a hard time seeing a fundamental breakthrough of sustainable character here...


Going back in the discussion you asked whether JASO had a tech edge. I would say that yes, given the higher average product efficiencies. However it is not guaranteed that this tech edge is sustainable.

@littleguy: thanks for your numbers. I'll have to go a level deeper with my crunchies when I have some time, will revert...

luckygoose

Trainee

Posts: 109

Date of registration: Dec 20th 2012

Stock Positions: CSIQ

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13

Saturday, June 1st 2013, 10:08am

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100780500?__sourc…ectors+to+Watch+

Some comments on solar; also csiq

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