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Q3 SPVI Forum Portfolio- Members' choice

Boss

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1

Monday, May 20th 2013, 9:36am

Odyd. CSIQ

With the win of $40 mio from LDK CSIQ will make at least $2.7 EPS. Up from $1.7 I assumed before.

Should see $16-$20 by October.

odyd12

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 9:44am

I am thinking on the conservative side, at $15.00. I am almost 100% sure profit every quarter starting with Q2.

spiritcraft

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 9:45am

Again, that is a logical estimate. Look at the sentiment. Look how things can double in a couple days. I think we are entering a period where a solar name can explode. The world is turning. No predictions but just as these were beaten to nothing, they could explode in a feeding frenzy. Commodities, shomodities.

Boss

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 9:50am

CISQ has the biggest EPS potential from all 11 Chi. They going the direction of SPWR.
They will do much better in EPS then SPWR.

spiritcraft

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5

Monday, May 20th 2013, 9:56am

If they came out with that officially today it would be $15 in 15 minutes.

odyd12

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6

Monday, May 20th 2013, 10:00am

I just want to point out to everyone not to get caught in the falsehood of being greedy. Some will say this now, upon those returns out of simple envy. Be careful, when closing your positions.
Refer to this index. Check SPWR. There is absolutely no reason to think that some of the leadership from China will not be positive on this index. This means double or triple prices from today. JA is trading at 1.80-90 pre consolidation. CSUN is trading at pennies. CSIQ was a $30 stock. some of the examples
https://solarpvinvestor.com/solar-universe/us-index

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joshchang

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7

Monday, May 20th 2013, 10:28am

CSIQ has one of the best margins in module business among chi 11.

Recovering module margin + steady project profit + reversal of arbitration award = big year for CSIQ

I am realizing some of my Jaso gains and move more money into CSIQ.

spiritcraft

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 10:35am

There is also the sexiness of projects... this will be big. I hope TSL also gets some projects moved into the announced / tangible realm.

Boss

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 10:40am

CSIQ said 40% project business out of 1700 MW in 2013.
Anybody knows how much of the 680 MW (40% from 1700) project will sell for per W???

joshchang

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 11:05am

There is also the sexiness of projects... this will be big. I hope TSL also gets some projects moved into the announced / tangible realm.
CSIQ said 40% project business out of 1700 MW in 2013.
Anybody knows how much of the 680 MW (40% from 1700) project will sell for per W???
>25% margin on transcanada projects. Overall, Canada projects generate >20% margin.

Boss

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 11:12am

I know the % margin, i want to know the price per Watt.

luckygoose

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 11:13am

I bet the shorts in CSIQ are scared shitless. They get no period for buying back shares at low levels before the earnings date. With the positive outcome of the court case and the already communicated GM between 9-10% they know there is a very big chance CSIQ is the next in line for a day like FSLR / SPWR and today JASO.

Looking at the CSIQ market cap in relation to SPWR for example we have still a long way to go.

Luckygoose

joshchang

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 11:45am

I know the % margin, i want to know the price per Watt.
"our Canadian project pipeline now includes 29 projects totaling approximately 400 megawatts DC. We estimate the resale value of our pipeline, once the solar power plants are completed, to be at least $1.5 billion. "--From CC

US projects should have a lower asp than Canada projects.

joshchang

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14

Monday, May 20th 2013, 12:00pm

CSIQ said 40% project business out of 1700 MW in 2013.
Anybody knows how much of the 680 MW (40% from 1700) project will sell for per W???
1700 MW total shipment in 2013. 50% of revenue (not shipments) coming from project business.

odyd12

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15

Monday, May 20th 2013, 12:02pm

300 to 500MW to be recognized as shipments to projects. The 200 is the US partial construction recognition.

Boss

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 12:04pm

chang

thanks, big mistake from me..

odyd12

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17

Monday, May 20th 2013, 1:19pm

Oh my, look out

Paybak66

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Monday, May 20th 2013, 1:47pm

I bet the shorts in CSIQ are scared shitless. They get no period for buying back shares at low levels before the earnings date. With the positive outcome of the court case and the already communicated GM between 9-10% they know there is a very big chance CSIQ is the next in line for a day like FSLR / SPWR and today JASO.

Looking at the CSIQ market cap in relation to SPWR for example we have still a long way to go.

Luckygoose



What was the most recent short interest for CSIQ ? I have both and am considering moving some money between the two.

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