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odyd12

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1

Monday, April 15th 2013, 7:38am

New project in New Mexico

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/renesola-w…-133000657.html
Interesting

Klothilde

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 8:26am

all 250 W modules, not bad...

solarcat

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 8:39am

Renesola continues to surprise and continues winning contracts. The demand for their products is impressive.

Klothilde

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 8:56am

I've never seen such a successful company. Not even Apple in it's best times.

solarcat

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 9:05am

Let's not compare different industries. The solar industry is nothing like the mobile phone industry. And no company is like Apple. Even in its bad day it will still make $30-40 billion in profit in 2013

Pop2mollys

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 11:10am

I've never seen such a successful company. Not even Apple in it's best times.


Nice jab...

You can hate SOL all you want the fact is there is absolutely no other solar which has grown sales as fast as they have over past year in a overcapacity situation. The demand for the products is now proven....

Good luck with your FSLR.... Should break out of flag this week....
Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL
:):)

Klothilde

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 11:27am

You can hate SOL all you want the fact is there is absolutely no other solar which has grown sales as fast as they have over past year in a overcapacity situation.


OMG can you believe this growth?

Net Revenue 2013: $969M
Net Revenue 2012: $985M
http://ir.renesola.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=2…6095&highlight=

Pop2mollys

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8

Monday, April 15th 2013, 11:40am

Lmfao.... They will easily clear BILLION in revenue in 2013.... And there profitable side in modules is up over 400% growth in last 18 months...,

OMG now Klothilde can magically come up with 2013 numbers already even though Q1 hasn't been reported yet....

Next time get your chit straight before you post.

Net Rev 2011 was 985 million
Net Rev 2012 was 969 million

Net rev in 2013 is NOT 969 million....

It WILL BE well over a BILLION
Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL
:):)

ILOVEPV

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 11:50am

Everything is going on according to a preliminary designed plan. Pre-earning rally, then abrupt free fall to punish those who jumped on bandwagon at the very last moment, then small dead cat like bounce (many bought at this bounce and are losing again), then a pressure down again, etc. All the system designed to show you the door (do not forget to give up your assets before closing the door) and develop a permanent hate for solar stocks. When 90-95% will lose their investment and quit turning off a light, the stocks start to rally on a neutral or even bad mass media coverage. x2.5-3 fold gain will be made as fast as possible (before you evaluate a situation) to scare you from buying already "overvalued" stocks. A standard "technology", nothing new.

Klothilde

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 11:51am

oh sorry, yeah those are 2012 and 2011 figures. My apologies. But where is your growth story? Or do you mean SOLs transition into module sales?

Pop2mollys

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 11:59am

Yes the growth is in modules but you will also see tremendous growth as I said from 2012 sales to 2013 as well as GM will improve dramatically even if ASP stay flat. I'm not saying they are printing money, but at 1.34 with....

1. Huge demand for products
2. Low costs
3. Reduced risks on Europeans tariffs
4. 2H 2013 profitibility...
5. Easy access to loans

Seems like the opportunity cost here makes sense. It's priced for BK... Not going to happen
Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL
:):)

solarcat

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 12:22pm

Sorry Klothilde, I missed the grin in your post. :)

BTW, your numbers are in error as you added +1 to the year. And compare that to any of the other Chinese solars:

Symbol, 2011, 2012, Rev Growth
HSOL, 1020m, 590m, DOWN 42%
TSL, 2048m, 1297m, DOWN 37%
JASO, 1705m, 1078m, DOWN 37%
JKS, RMB 7.38b, RMB 4.79b, DOWN 35.1%
CSIQ, 1899m, 1295m, DOWN 32%
YGE, 2332m, 1829m, DOWN 22%
GCL, 3286m, 2880m, DOWN 13%
SOL, 985m, 970m, just -1.5% <===

SOL's growth in module manufacturing was big in 2012 and it will be huge in 2013.

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "solarcat" (Apr 15th 2013, 12:30pm)


odyd12

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 12:35pm

ASP is around 0.63 for q4, but it will not go up to 0.84 of Q 2012, so growth on ASP will be subdued.
Module shipments will grow. Reduced risk on European tariffs are you talking about sourcing?

solarcat

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 12:56pm

If ASPs are going to be subdued, they are going to be subdued for everyone. If the ASPs are going to go higher or lower (however many pennies), everyone will see some higher or lower ASPs. Clearly we are bumping around the bottom here in both stock prices, ASPs, etc... A lot depends on the world economy. But one thing that solar has going for it is that we are getting closer to grid parity where no subsidies will be needed and when more and more private investors will see the return worthwhile to invest their money in renewable power plants. But clearly everyone still has short memories of the solar implosion and so everyone is still jittery. I think everyone has had it with losses quarter after quarter and they want to know that there is light at the end of the tunnel. JMHO.

Klothilde

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 1:21pm

Hi solarcat, thanks for the growth data. However I couldn't help but notice that you seem to focus on the companies with shrinking revenue. Any particular reason for this? In case you didn't know, there are also some thriving companies out there. Here's one example:

Symbol, 2011, 2012, Rev Growth
FSLR, 2766m, 3369m, UP 22%

However let's return to the topic: Does anybody know the reason why the new mexico developer chose Renesola modules? Was it because they are simply the best modules out there or because Renesola offered the lowest price and nobody wanted to match it? I heard these days some companies are not so keen on low ASP business.

odyd12

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 1:36pm

Reduced risk on European tariffs are you talking about sourcing?

I asked specific question. I see them doing business in India and now in South Africa as sourced out. I know they send wafers to India, which is all fine, and I thought they had plans for S. African markets so not using those modules elsewhere. That business is small scale anyway. How is SOL particularly better off with tariffs in Europe, if "every" component is going to have one? I would like to understand the view here. This question was for Pop.

solarcat

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 1:53pm

Klothilde, these days there are companies with much lower ASPs than SOL, as their Q4 numbers have shown. So some companies are willing to accept any price even if it is below their cost. On the other hand SOL sells every module at a profit and in Q4 posted some of the highest module margins amongst Chinese solars out there (60c cost 63c ASPs for 5% GMs). So if anyone wanted to beat the price, all they had to do is sell their modules at the same low ASPs and negative margins that they sold them in Q4.

So I guess the project used other metrics beyond just the lowest ASPs. :)

This post has been edited 2 times, last edit by "solarcat" (Apr 15th 2013, 2:02pm)


Pop2mollys

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 2:02pm

Reduced risk on European tariffs are you talking about sourcing?

I asked specific question. I see them doing business in India and now in South Africa as sourced out. I know they send wafers to India, which is all fine, and I thought they had plans for S. African markets so not using those modules elsewhere. That business is small scale anyway. How is SOL particularly better off with tariffs in Europe, if "every" component is going to have one? I would like to understand the view here. This question was for Pop.


Well their anticipated demand from Europe was in the range of 30-35% of total shipments which where estimated between 1.2 -1.6GW. So that would be around 400-500 MW. Keep in mind I'm sure they front loaded in Jan-March 6 so I'm guessing they would only need to ship 200-300mw or less rest of year to hit guidance. As per their CC they have already arranged for outsourcing of 400MW, and this deal was already struck months ago. So yes I would say SOL is relatively protected against tariffs. The demand they expected from Europe can easily be hit from this deal.
http://www.pv-tech.org/news/renesola_to_…dule_production

I'm not saying tariffs are good for anyone but if there are tariffs you would have to expect module prices to spike in Europe which would directly have a positive effect on margins.
Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL
:):)

redsolar

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19

Monday, April 15th 2013, 2:15pm

S&C Electric Company.
http://www.sandc.com/default.asp

If you check their website...these guys are doing some serious work with Renewable energy sources. Though this is a small transaction...always good to have a client of this sophisticated.

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Pop2mollys

Pop2mollys

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Monday, April 15th 2013, 2:31pm

Hi solarcat, thanks for the growth data. However I couldn't help but notice that you seem to focus on the companies with shrinking revenue. Any particular reason for this? In case you didn't know, there are also some thriving companies out there. Here's one example:

Symbol, 2011, 2012, Rev Growth
FSLR, 2766m, 3369m, UP 22%

However let's return to the topic: Does anybody know the reason why the new mexico developer chose Renesola modules? Was it because they are simply the best modules out there or because Renesola offered the lowest price and nobody wanted to match it? I heard these days some companies are not so keen on low ASP business.


So currently FSLR market cap is 3.14 BILLION and forecasted sales of 3.8 - 4.00 BILLION in 2013

SOL market cap is 114 MILLION and they will have sales of 1 BILLION +++ in 2013

I will give you FSLR has better margins currently but the distance between the 2 is shrinking fast. I think FSLR is a buy but I see a tremendous amount of Value in SOL currently with yearly sales for 2013 will likely be 12-15X current market cap. On other hand FSLR 2013 sales will be more like 1.3X market cap.
Long 80% CSIQ, 20% SOL
:):)

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