SolarPVInvestor Forums

Personally I bought because of the export data and ASP data I purchased. I have been thinking about this purchase for many days bit wasn't going to buy till I saw for sure they paid off their convertible. To me that's big.

Im not going to get into the the exact reasons because only a few purchased ASP data. If you saw the data you would know why. balance sheet is very nice too and I like the lowered short interest going into earnings.

And yes maybe I want an adrenaline rush early Monday morning.

I am thinking about nibbling on some JASO today before earnings for a short term trade. Do you realistically see a chance of them making a 10-20% short term gain based on ER and analysts estimates?

Thanks for your opinion. I think you may be right. Any positive outlook will take it up. Maybe 20% is too optimistic. But I guess it all depends on expectations.

good luck guys with JASO. My policy either do not hold stock through earnings or keep a small position. In a case of SOL it was completely justified. I sold 80% in 2.30 area 1 day before earnings date. Even with 13K left my account dropped yesterday over $4K. Should I keep all the position it would have been a loss of 20K. Today I started buying SOL back. First 10K was bought for 1.92.
A rule number one: first avoid a loss (preserve capital), and only then think about gain. As for JASO I sold out 2 days ago $5.83 all shares I had (only 5K). I prefer buying more expensive but on a way up instead of putting myself in a miserable situation like yesterday SOL holders.

Quoted from "odyd12"

. Paying this bond was a very good event. It says this company means business and wants to stay in it. .

If one has fallowed Jaso, you would have recognized as Jaso stated several quarters back, they had they cash to pay off the bonds. Paying them is a non event. Not paying them should be lawsuits and forced bankruptcy. I guess only the big banks in China can sue and force bankruptcy though in China as LDK is still around.

I will state, Jaso has had excellent inventory levels for some time now and some of the best turn rates in the industry. That is a credit to their management which for some time was headed by a guy from Piper Jafferey that worked with Jessie Pitchel.

Yes, good luck. I'm taking a negative stance on this whole ER season, meaning I think the SOL disappointment will not be the only one and it might fuel shorts to push down all names. I don't know who will be the positive surprises though. CSIQ already preannounced great GM and raised shipement guidance. SOL lost 40m. TSL guided for a loss of twice that. If we see a lot of companies losing 50-100m this quarter I think sentiment will turn sour for rest of May.

explo
A key is a guidance. SOL guided excellent. That is why I do not think SOL will go down too much. May be 1.75-1.80 as a very bottom. May be a bottom was already set yesterday 1.86. That is why I slowly started to buy SOL back though honestly I am not going to restore all the previous position of 75K, rather 45-50K and diversify more equally. The most unexpected for me fact is an excellent performance of SCTY - so huge rally with no apparent reason. I will probably make another cut in 45-50 area leaving only 25% of initially bought position. A definite winner is going to be SPWR - I'm serious 45-50 within this 2013.
I support your CURRENT sour view but at the same time all my previous experience tells: expect unexpected.

Quoted from "ILOVEPV"

A key is a guidance. SOL guided excellent.

Yes, guidance is key. I expected 15% GM in Q2. They guided 5%. This means the profitability horizon disappeared. Generally the impression is that the trade war will push up cost for the whole value-chain. Most will probably lose on it initially until they've adapted.

Quoted from "ILOVEPV"

The most unexpected for me fact is an excellent performance of SCTY

Commercials for Solar City in the Bay area show pallets of Canadian Solar moved around in their wearhouses.

Hold JA Solar because of the Companys execution and planning.

1. JA began almost a year earlier in planning strategies to circumvent their product so they could avoid US tariffs as a result they paid very little in tariffs to the US compared to others.

2. Strong Balance Sheet in the Top 3 of US and Chinese Solars as having one of the best debt to asset ratios. Cash per share is 12.00.

3. (Great Strategic Planning) Their move to become a module producer. To verically integrate JA hired Peng Fang to take the Company from being the largest solar cell producer to becoming one of the largest module producers. Peng formally owned Best Solar Mfg. Co., very successful business, sold the Company to LDK . Both Peng Fang along with Jonathan Pickering both studied at Silicon Valley and worked for years in various Management positions at AMD. Peng has served out his term with JA Solar. JA now as of 2012 is 6'th largest module producer in the world coming from 12'th place (1 year) & in a very short time.

4. Made moves to Japan early and opened a sales office to better take care of the customer.

6. West Holdings, Japans largest pv residential solar provider JA is a preferred provider in a 1.3 Billion Investment. West Holdings will build 250 Power Plants. More partnerships listed on the Companys latest presentation.

7. JA Solar is #1 Chinese Solar company in Japan. Solar is booming in Japan and ASP's are the Highest. GTM Summit it was said that those that are established in Japan will be in better financial health.

8. The convertibles from May of 2008 has been paid. The hedged short that was on JA Solar for 5 years is gone. This is a big relief. Plus they will not have the interest payment from the convertibles going forward.

9. Low Float and Short Interest has dropped a lot. With a low float JA can surge.

10. Tremendously undervalued imo $12.00 cash per share. Pre split JA is just a little over a $1.00 a share.

11. Technologically they continually improve on efficiencies and costs of their products.

Just a few Reasons besides looking at the Data.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/…ment_cycles.jpg
Guess: in which point of this curve we are now (with Chi10).

Quoted from "Klothilde"

JASO is the new SOL.

LOL....you nailed it! (or, at the very least, until Monday, when they are either elected the new Pope of Solars, or everyone dumps JASO immediately and moves back to TSL, CSIQ....or, who knows....maybe even SOL again?).

Option Calls traded Wednesday at 14 times the daily average.http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/market….aspx?ID=116118

Quoted from "littleguyintucson"

Commercials for Solar City in the Bay area show pallets of Canadian Solar moved around in their wearhouses.

An actual sighting is always good! That is certainly far better than the nightmare of a few years ago where people were scouring the planet to try and glimpse an actual APWR turbine. :-)

PV commercials? That is the wave of the future. That is something else... cool.

I do hope that super Jaso nails hit, smacks it out of the park. That would be good for all. I made no move, have never owned that one and just can't jump in that fast. Good luck to all!