143 replies to this topic

[odyd]

Article from Jason on polysilicon pricing dynamic
http://solarpvinvest...-market-dynamic

[odyd]

On Canadian,
http://solarpvinvest...mpanies-in-2013

on GCL
http://solarpvinvest...ssure-on-prices

[explo]

Nice article on Canadian. I think it is the best tier-1 play now, since it is approaching the top 3 and the top 3 has too much issues now. Trina is still double market cap to Canadian.

[odyd]

Recent Q3 results from Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) at first glance added to discontent about the state of the industry, but the first glance should not be made the last, as there is a lot more to see in that quarter.


Read more: http://www.pv-magazi.../#ixzz2DzzJlrvN

[explo]

Thanks. Where did you learn that 20 million of the revenue was from cell shipped to China? That would mean around 45MW cells shipped in addition to the 380 MW module shipments?

Assuming no systems revenue, Trina's ASP was then 73 cents, more in-line with Canadian's 71 cents and Yingli's 70 cents (shipped much more than Trina and Canadian though).

The ASP gap to tier 2 is closing for those trying to keep decent utilization. Yingli was only 2 cents over Jinko and that with much more high end products.

Renesola has during the year predicted that the ASP gap would close completely in Q4. The gap has reflected contract terms delay effect and high price market penetrations more than tier/brand premium.

We'll see. Yingli is at least a clear no 1 in market share now. The 100m opex+interest is an issue and the growing non-controlling interest, but otherwise they start to look interesting. Trina as always seems clean and prudent, but are they slipping on market aligned product offering, aside from the 20% Honey? Jinko has added 5 W to their poly panels in latest product sheets, still average 10W below Renesola's poly, but 5 W above Trina's and Yingli's poly offering.

[odyd]

Thanks. Where did you learn that 20 million of the revenue was from cell shipped to China? That would mean around 45MW cells shipped in addition to the 380 MW module shipments?

Assuming no systems revenue, Trina's ASP was then 73 cents, more in-line with Canadian's 71 cents and Yingli's 70 cents (shipped much more than Trina and Canadian though).

The ASP gap to tier 2 is closing for those trying to keep decent utilization. Yingli was only 2 cents over Jinko and that with much more high end products.

Renesola has during the year predicted that the ASP gap would close completely in Q4. The gap has reflected contract terms delay effect and high price market penetrations more than tier/brand premium.

We'll see. Yingli is at least a clear no 1 in market share now. The 100m opex+interest is an issue and the growing non-controlling interest, but otherwise they start to look interesting. Trina as always seems clean and prudent, but are they slipping on market aligned product offering, aside from the 20% Honey? Jinko has added 5 W to their poly panels in latest product sheets, still average 10W below Renesola's poly, but 5 W above Trina's and Yingli's poly offering.

HI Explo I had conversations about it with the company. I wrote this article basically with the company' reviewing data used. The ASP was 0.72 ,
I hate to solicit to friends, but some of the interesting facts can be found in the reports for October 2012, how about trying a data for September for a $1? At this point and those prices (I get the commission and vaguely able to use total data its supports this business (SPVI)),
You could let me know what you think as well.

[odyd]

Solarzoom report prices are dropping in November
http://solarpvinvest...china-report-17

[odyd]

This is the article is basically a pdf we were trying to sell at one point.
http://solarpvinvest...stalline-wafers

[explo]

This is the article is basically a pdf we were trying to sell at one point.
http://solarpvinvest...stalline-wafers

Great article, thanks. You included YGE in the group that outsource wafers. I thought they did not do that..?

[explo]

This is the article is basically a pdf we were trying to sell at one point.
http://solarpvinvest...stalline-wafers

Great article, thanks. You included YGE in the group that outsource wafers. I thought they did not do that..?

Sorry, either outsource or experiment you wrote. So YGE experiments. Does any of TSL, STP or HSOL do that too?

[odyd]

Hi explo, YGE and STP are experimenting. HSOL and STP are the buyers, but Honey is made on a sorted wafer. They insist honey is build on own HP wafer.

[odyd]

New article on wafer business and projects,
http://solarpvinvest...ar-wafer-market

[odyd]

The quarterly summary for Q3
http://solarpvinvest...q3-2012-edition

[odyd]

Hi,
Concerns over the Q4 results for some of the companies. Those who have the Solarzoom Data are seeing the detail.
http://seekingalpha....ut-q4-estimates

[odyd]

Hi explo, YGE and STP are experimenting. HSOL and STP are the buyers, but Honey is made on a sorted wafer. They insist honey is build on own HP wafer.

Today's news release form Yingli suggest that their experimentation period now is over. They have own HP wafer and cell. It will be very tight for anyone to move to category of progress when they will run out of money. The next set of the technological evolution will leave companies in the dust. Based on the Solarzoom reports mono is back in full swing and n-type mono and Kaneka in Taiwan are making waves. Yingli is going not only live but prosper.
http://solarpvinvest...n-ingot-casting

[explo]

Today's news release form Yingli suggest that their experimentation period now is over.

That's very bullish for YGE, since multi is 60% of their capacity. Now it is all HP.

From their press release their best ingot produced wafers that would lead to average 250w panels. SOL is already 255w average on an average ingot, so still ahead, but nice to see YGE join the mass production (I assume) low cost HP products. YGE will as things normalize join SOL in high GM and large shipments (they are both already clear leaders in MW shipped 2012 of solar 11). YGE will thrive, but their structure don't allow share holders to benefit much from that (to many other interests with preceeding claims). My hope is that they'll try to change this structure. They started working on it a few years ago and reached some progress on reducing minority interests, but the downturn has instead amplified the adverse structure on both minority interests and debt.

Note also that Zhejiang is the home of SOL. Don't know if it is conincidental. SOL runs R&D through multiple small subsidiary initiatives, kind of like a seed portfolio to limit risk and retain potential, by committing only to proven success.

Great SA article and Q3 summary, by the way.

[explo]

250w is 10w up from their current 240w average (same as industry standard level) a 4% improvement.

[odyd]

Hi explo I am going to move this discussion to YGE thread. BTW thank you for your opinion on SA article.

[odyd]

Solarzoom report for last week
http://solarpvinvest...china-report-21

[odyd]

Hi all,
SPVI has started interview format with companies last year, which turned very interesting for investors based on the amount of traffic generated. I thought this year it would be interesting to talk to equipment companies. I have sent few contact letters to make arrangements. I am hoping that we will get an interest and SPVI will be able bring vision of development of the industry in 2013 with their own perspective.
If anyone has a contact relationship or other reason to help out, please PM me for this purpose. Complete privacy secured.
I will keep you posted how we are moving forward.